2025 Israel - Iranian conflict

zyklon

Junior Member
Registered Member
In a defensive war, surviving and denying the aggressor of all of their war goals can be considered a victory.

Why not? Iran held on and did not submit to any game changing humiliating treaties. Yeah it looks stupid with guys dead but losses are expected in wars. As long as its main core interest is not affected, it can live to fight next time. From how I see it, Israel wanted a quick victory but couldn't get it and was getting bogged down so it begged US to step in. The US did join in but only for surface level stuff and eventually told the two to pipe down.

Now what will Iran do? Will it finally wise up this time? It really has a lot to improve on frankly and the time is running out.

TBF it makes complete sense for the Iranian authorities to declare victory, celebrate the occasion and honor the sacrifices of their martyrs.

At the end of the day, it's practical and sensible to do so given domestic political considerations, especially as Iran is an electoral democracy unlike the majority of its neighbors.

Declaring and celebrating victory align with the narrative that the Iranian populace has been fed, especially with regard to the efficacy of Iranian missiles.

However, at the same time, we have to ask ourselves if this is what a "12 Day War" is supposed to look like from the victorious side:

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Israel has carried out the biggest reshuffle of Iran's military high command in history
 

Anlsvrthng

Captain
Registered Member
It's crazy! Some of these names are absolute legends in Iran and to allow them to die like this is such an embarrassment.
Why?

they died in fight, in a dispicable attack.

They didn't expected it, best part of them died in a single place during a meeting.

we atalk about 30 people, they been replaced, they died in fight ,and they managed to make a system that didn't collapsed in the most stressed times.

Iran way stronger, Israel and USa way weaker tan was 2 weeks ago.


Kudo .
 

Sinnavuuty

Captain
Registered Member
It's crazy! Some of these names are absolute legends in Iran and to allow them to die like this is such an embarrassment.
Some of these commanders are not theoretical (no combat experience), they are battle commanders (they fought against Iraq in the 80s). This is a shame especially the way the head of intelligence died.

For those unaware, Israeli intelligence used a fake phone call to trick top Iranian air force commanders into meeting in a single location before they were eliminated in a targeted strike, according to a commentator on Israel’s Channel 12.

In a statement confirmed to the Jewish Chronicle by Israeli sources, Amit Segal told the Call Me Back podcast on Monday: “What Israel did was create a fake phone call for 20 top air force commanders, summoning them to a specific bunker in Tehran.”

That meant there was no one to give the order to fire the initial salvo of 1,000 ballistic missiles, as Iran had previously threatened, he added.

According to sources familiar with the operation, the Mossad began a targeted disinformation effort days before the attack.

Using spoofed communications through Iranian channels, they simulated what appeared to be an emergency meeting.

The ruse successfully lured the entire senior leadership of the IRGC Aerospace Force, including Commander General Amir Ali Hajizadeh, his deputies and key technical personnel, to a fortified bunker on the outskirts of Tehran.

Moments before the attack began, the bunker was hit by precision bombing, eliminating Iran’s top missile command.

Israeli officials say the goal was clear: to prevent the launch of what were believed to be more than 1,000 ballistic missiles aimed at Israeli territory. There was absolutely no one alive to give the order to retaliate.

Immediately after this, Israel launched a sweeping campaign across Tehran and other strategic areas, targeting missile sites, infrastructure and air defense systems.

A senior Israeli security official told Fox News that Israel successfully eliminated most of the IRGC air force leadership in the June 13 strike.

“We conducted targeted activities to help us learn more about them and then used that information to influence their behavior,” the official said. “We knew that would lead them to gather, but more importantly, we knew how to keep them there.”

The strike was even more effective than expected, the official said. He added that the impact of the strike on the commanders was compounded when Israel used drones to destroy air defense systems and ballistic missiles across the country shortly thereafter.

SOURCE: The Jewish Chronicle
 

tankphobia

Senior Member
Registered Member
Some of these commanders are not theoretical (no combat experience), they are battle commanders (they fought against Iraq in the 80s). This is a shame especially the way the head of intelligence died.

For those unaware, Israeli intelligence used a fake phone call to trick top Iranian air force commanders into meeting in a single location before they were eliminated in a targeted strike, according to a commentator on Israel’s Channel 12.

In a statement confirmed to the Jewish Chronicle by Israeli sources, Amit Segal told the Call Me Back podcast on Monday: “What Israel did was create a fake phone call for 20 top air force commanders, summoning them to a specific bunker in Tehran.”

That meant there was no one to give the order to fire the initial salvo of 1,000 ballistic missiles, as Iran had previously threatened, he added.

According to sources familiar with the operation, the Mossad began a targeted disinformation effort days before the attack.

Using spoofed communications through Iranian channels, they simulated what appeared to be an emergency meeting.

The ruse successfully lured the entire senior leadership of the IRGC Aerospace Force, including Commander General Amir Ali Hajizadeh, his deputies and key technical personnel, to a fortified bunker on the outskirts of Tehran.

Moments before the attack began, the bunker was hit by precision bombing, eliminating Iran’s top missile command.

Israeli officials say the goal was clear: to prevent the launch of what were believed to be more than 1,000 ballistic missiles aimed at Israeli territory. There was absolutely no one alive to give the order to retaliate.

Immediately after this, Israel launched a sweeping campaign across Tehran and other strategic areas, targeting missile sites, infrastructure and air defense systems.

A senior Israeli security official told Fox News that Israel successfully eliminated most of the IRGC air force leadership in the June 13 strike.

“We conducted targeted activities to help us learn more about them and then used that information to influence their behavior,” the official said. “We knew that would lead them to gather, but more importantly, we knew how to keep them there.”

The strike was even more effective than expected, the official said. He added that the impact of the strike on the commanders was compounded when Israel used drones to destroy air defense systems and ballistic missiles across the country shortly thereafter.

SOURCE: The Jewish Chronicle
Hard time breeds hard men, modern Iranian lived far better lives than those who fought in the Iran Iraq war with nothing but guts and suicidal religious fevor. Will be difficult to replace the level of conviction some of those old guard would have.

On the topic of chinese arms, with the current rate of infiltration the only thing China will get out of providing Iran anything is the operating manual and munitions examples getting sent to the US for full analysis.
 

NorthKimBestKim

Just Hatched
Registered Member
There are so many sources saying that Iran will pivot to China for AD. The defense minister is in China to shop.https://x.com/AryJeay/status/1937895074966511783
I hope PRC fully denies Iran any AD or anything else related to fighters or other type of defense equipment. After today's full-on pro-Hindutva statement from the Iranian embassy, there is no hope for these people. PRC should focus on all five Central Asian states + Pakistan + Bangladesh + Nepal + Sri Lanka + Thailand + Laos + Cambodia + Malaysia + Indonesia + both Koreas + Russia + Mongolia + Afghanistan ++ when it comes to immediate neighbours.

Instead of Iran, focus on Iraq + Algeria + Oman. At this point, Iran is as useless in regards to cooperation as Argentina and Saudi-Arabia. Selling Iran anything useful will just end up into Israeli and U.S. hands anyway.
 

sequ

Major
Registered Member
This is what they've invested in, in the last 15 years. All those OTH radars, long-range VHF radars, AESA radars in various bands and architecture from Chinese, Belorussian and Russian inspiration, almost all equipped with thermal imaging systems for passive detection and tracking, SAMs with various ranges, modernized SAMs like the Hawk, S-200 and Crotale and new missiles with ranges from 6 km to 320 km (!), all to no avail whatsoever:

GuTE1lLW0AA6ye4



They've been set back at least (half) a decade regarding their AD technology as IEI and missile production facilities have been hit or outright destroyed.
 

NorthKimBestKim

Just Hatched
Registered Member
This is what they've invested in, in the last 15 years. All those OTH radars, long-range VHF radars, AESA radars in various bands and architecture from Chinese, Belorussian and Russian inspiration, almost all equipped with thermal imaging systems for passive detection and tracking, SAMs with various ranges, modernized SAMs like the Hawk, S-200 and Crotale and new missiles with ranges from 6 km to 320 km (!), all to no avail whatsoever:

GuTE1lLW0AA6ye4



They've been set back at least (half) a decade regarding their AD technology as IEI and missile production facilities have been hit or outright destroyed.
One should never rely on SAMs only. It shows time after time that air power, cruise missiles etc always win at the end. Sure, Iran is considerably weaker than combined U.S. and Israeli forces, so the U.S. and Israel always attack a weaker country, but the point is that Iran probably exagerrated some of the capabilities these SAM systems are supposed to have.

Furthermore, we must never forget the numbers here. Numbers by itself are strength by itself. When Israel attacked with 200 fighters and the U.S. comes in with B-2 stealth bombers and Tomahawks etc, it doesn't help to have a few S-300PMU2 and Bavar-373. Once they were taken out (also by sabotage on the ground), it was easy to attack "downwards the scale". Meaning, if the U.S. and Israel can defeat the best thing you have, then the rest is worth nothing. Essentially, it doesn't matter how many "Iranian TORs" Iran has, just to make my point. TORs will be smoked.
 
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