2025 Israel - Iranian conflict

ansy1968

Brigadier
Registered Member
Isn't that kind of an apples-oranges thing? Ukraine is a backwater that never had regional ambitions and is merely fighting for its survival. Iran wanted to be one of the ME's regional powers.

With respect to the current topic now, if the war is coming to an end. I don't think there's any way to argue otherwise, these past two years have been a strategic disaster for Iran. The short version is simply that the Axis of Resistance has been completely dismantled. The immediate consequence of which is that unfortunately, unless Ben Gvir's heart suddenly grows Grinch Christmas style, the Palestinian people will have to bear whatever revenge the Israelis are in the mood for. With three years to go in the Trump presidency, it likely won't be pretty for them.

However, the IRI despite its defeats in the war has thus far managed to avoid regime change and kept its nuclear program intact, they scored a win on that front. With their regional empire in tatters, they can now focus inwards. A certain country has the ability to reap all the benefits by taking advantage of Iran's current weakend state and making it a satellite within the Middle East. But as long as Iran gets to work on finally building nukes rather than tiptoeing around the issue in hope for sanctions relief and create a somewhat competent ground army now that the need to rely on militias is gone, they can be a valuable satellite.
Tactically Iranian lost BUT Strategically they won, launching missile against Israel had become a new normal. Attacking Israel is like Attacking the US, both are the same side of the same coin, there is NO distinction as Israel is an extension of American hegemon. The three Pillar of Resistance, China, Russia and Iran had become more united than before and we had to be thankful and grateful for the latter two, they had given us time to prepare.
 

cqxt11

New Member
Registered Member
why is there always a brigade to explain how a ceasefire means that israel won in 20 different ways? if israel had already attained air superiority, crippled iran's bm capability and irreversibly decapitated the state, why would daddy trump need to bail them out with "PEACE" instead of finishing the job?
 

iewgnem

Senior Member
Registered Member
why is there always a brigade to explain how a ceasefire means that israel won in 20 different ways? if israel had already attained air superiority, crippled iran's bm capability and irreversibly decapitated the state, why would daddy trump need to bail them out with "PEACE" instead of finishing the job?
Well Iran just fired missiles at Israel again, I guess Iran didn't get the memo, but we'll see if Israel sticks by their unilateral ceasefire.

WSJ already reported days ago Israel has been asking Trump to somehow gets a ceasefire, that and others lobbying for a full scale invasion, either way a country of settlers can't have settlers fleeing en-mass and still hope to have a country left after long, they need to solve the problem one way or another. Fordow was obviously manufactured as an off ramp by the US so they can declare victory and get AIPAC off their back, but just like getting bombed by Iran daily, for all their assasinations, I'm not sure Isarel caculated the full strategic scope of what they got themselves into.
 

Friendly

Just Hatched
Registered Member
Sorry, did I read it correctly that there has been a ceasefire between Israel and Iran announced by Trump? Why not the two sides of the conflict announce it?
He did the same with India-Pakistan. In this particular case, the US is part of the conflict, so it makes sense that he announces a ceasefire. Whether anyone adheres to it is another matter.
 

AlexYe

Junior Member
Registered Member
Yeah that's what I said. Ayatollah is like a monarch, i.e. he's more of a figurehead. If he goes, a Putin-like figure from intelligence, IRGC, etc, might declare an emergency & take power. Then you have an Iranian Putin. Alternatively a new Ayatollah comes, and is scared for his life, so relies more and more on the security establishment. Not something the US wants, so I doubt the rumours swirling around about an assassination.
Oh you mean if they sorta drop the fake-authoritarian power and actually become one under someone capable to handle all the stuff, yeah agreed I get you, Tbf that could be the next ayatollah too, the current one lets the 'civilian government' that people voted in , do their thing.
Meanwhile Iran said they would honour the ceasefire if israel stopped bombing past 4am, israel bombed past 4am (at 4:34) so now...

I am not sure if this fits here? Its mossad agent recording by WP
 

iewgnem

Senior Member
Registered Member
-US strikes empty Iranian nuclear facilities.
-Iran strikes empty US air bases.

Why did US do such a pointless action, was it to take off the heat Israel is getting from the international community?
US strikes empty Iranian facilities to get Israel off their back.
Iran strikes empty US airbases so they can focus on Israel.
Everyone hates Israel, including those being blackmailed.
 

Kich

Junior Member
Registered Member
Now that Israel has severely weakened its arch rival, Iran, it will turn its attention to Turkey.

Turkey is now the biggest threat to Israel. I won't be surprised if the two fight a war over Syria next year. Turkey is going to try to move into Syria with military outposts and bases and Israel will threaten to destroy them.

This region will remain a powder cake for a long time.

Iran and Israel might have a round 2 maybe a few years later after Iran has upgrade their military and it's pushing towards the bomb.
 

pokepara

New Member
Registered Member
I think what we learnt is countries just don't have the same appetite for war like before. No matter how bad things are, war is to be avoided. War is damn expensive after all.

Being expensive is a PRO, not a con, for arms manufacturers. Countries are comprised of political entities. The US "country" represents certain factions of which arms manufacturers comprise a major portion.

Luckily, the most profitable arms are wunderwaffen bullshit that breaks after firing it a few times so after they dump some of your capital accumulation, they promote peace (and rearmament contracts).

The issue is with the petrochemicals faction (and the financial faction that's built atop them) that have an interest in controlling supply. These guys don't necessarily need all out war, but they do want key petrochemical sources controlled or at least cut out of the "international community's" market. I'd watch out for more industrial terrorism.
 

iewgnem

Senior Member
Registered Member
Now that Israel has severely weakened its arch rival, Iran, it will turn its attention to Turkey.

Turkey is now the biggest threat to Israel. I won't be surprised if the two fight a war over Syria next year. Turkey is going to try to move into Syria with military outposts and bases and Israel will threaten to destroy them.

This region will remain a powder cake for a long time.

Iran and Israel might have a round 2 maybe a few years later after Iran has upgrade their military and it's pushing towards the bomb.
Israel just helped Iran solve their biggest problem for decades: internal unity, while Israel is declaring unilteral ceasefire as Iranian missiles resumed bombing them

Yeah I don't think Israel is in a position to take on Turkey at this rate, terrorist attacks maybe, and killing children, those seem to be the only thing they're good at, but real war clearly isn't for them.
 
Top