2025 Israel - Iranian conflict

SinoAmericanCW

Junior Member
Registered Member
why do you think that a surrender will be (truly) accepted at all?
Because Trump is unwilling to attempt "regime change", due to (1) the residual U.S. trauma over Iraq and (2) the fear that it would bog down the U.S. and ultimately benefit China.

Did Gaddafi's "pivot toward denuclearization and normalization with the U.S." result in Libya becoming a great power or a shithole?
Gaddafi lost control of his country. I don't expect something similar to happen to the Islamic Republic.

What about Assad?
Same as with Gaddafi. The West exploited the opportunity that presented itself, but it didn't create it.
 

Overbom

Brigadier
Registered Member
Iran has been defeated, but its problems are not over yet. In real life there's no referee to stop your opponent from kicking you when you're down. Once you lose your leverage, you don't even have surrender to negotiate.

Asian countries like China, India, Pakistan and North Korea were willing to eat grass to have a weapon and just sprinted towards the goal with no hesitation. Every one was under sanctions until the west gave up. It really does take that kind of national willpower. The reason was precisely that if they did not sprint towards a weapon, this sort of shit will happen.

It is use it or lose it. Once you start, you can't stop or go back. Not obeying that fundamental principle is what got Iran to this.
Iran thinks it's enemies are as stupid as it is.
Say what you want, but Netanyahu is brutally ruthless. The moment he smells blood in the water, he will finish you off. No surrender, no wait and see, no second chances bs

Iran is over.
 

FairAndUnbiased

Brigadier
Registered Member
Because Trump is unwilling to attempt "regime change", due to (1) the residual U.S. trauma over Iraq and (2) the fear that it would bog down the U.S. and ultimately benefit China.


Gaddafi lost control of his country. I don't expect something similar to happen to the Islamic Republic.


Same as with Gaddafi. The West exploited the opportunity that presented itself, but it didn't create it.
Counterpoint: Saddam Hussein.

After losing Desert Storm he remained in office but Iraq was placed under even tighter sanctions, then no fly zones were put over it, then bombing was continuous over the next 10 years to prevent any rebuilding, and once the US gathered enough political capital, it went after them.

So Iran could easily offer a surrender and once they see verifiable dismantling of their nuclear program the US can then not remove any sanctions, bomb them for another 10 years to prevent economic development, install no fly zones everywhere, and then finish them off later. What's Iran gonna do about it?
 

Randomuser

Captain
Registered Member
Iran thinks it's enemies are as stupid as it is.
Say what you want, but Netanyahu is brutally ruthless. The moment he smells blood in the water, he will finish you off. No surrender, no wait and see, no second chances bs

Iran is over.
I don't like Netanyahu. But I will at least acknowledge he is a ruthless leader who will get things done and he himself doesn't try to hide it. He was in the special forces and actually killed people. Plus his ancestors were from the Russian Empire so they know things don't come easily.

This is different from people like Zelensky who never served and tries to wear a military uniform to dress up as a soldier. Seems very fake and ignorant. Netanyahu doesn't need to do that. He knows what it's actually like to be in combat. There is no bs or half measures for him.
 

SinoAmericanCW

Junior Member
Registered Member
Iran thinks it's enemies are as stupid as it is.
Say what you want, but Netanyahu is brutally ruthless. The moment he smells blood in the water, he will finish you off. No surrender, no wait and see, no second chances bs

Iran is over.
Bibi lacks the means to finish Iran off, and Trump won't blow up his presidency for the sake of the maximalist Israeli goal wrt Iran.

Trump has proven willing to use force, but he's extremely unlikely to be open to a sustained military engagement.
 
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