2025 Israel - Iranian conflict

AlexYe

Junior Member
Registered Member
Perhaps it's a religious thing? If you're a fanatical Shia zealot - as the Iranian regime are - you'd prioritize relations with:

1. Heretics (Sunni);
2. Infidels (Christians); then
3. Heathens (Buddhists, Hindus, etc.)

in that order.

Edit: People of the Book entitled to dhimmi status, those who shirk are lowest of the low (apart from apostates):

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I dont think religion plays a big role when deciding things like that in Iran, many reformists in Iran are weirdly pro-western and since 2015 deal went kaput they have been trying to get back on that horse.
 

Maikeru

Major
Registered Member
I dont think religion plays a big role when deciding things like that in Iran, many reformists in Iran are weirdly pro-western and since 2015 deal went kaput they have been trying to get back on that horse.
The western nations are nominally Christian and therefore "people of the book", entitled to dhimmi status in Islamic jurisprudence. Whereas Buddhists, Hindus and atheists are treated as something you scrape off your shoe.
 

plawolf

Lieutenant General
They have reduced their missile launches from hundreds to single digit launches per day. This is not an encouraging pattern. Even if they are saving up missiles for the US, a single launch a day is not enough to keep the pressure on Israel. Especially after what they have promised to do to Israel. At this rate, I'm afraid that they might actually stop launching missiles soon.

I wouldn’t read too much into a single data point. Especially since that single missile did some unusual manoeuvres, so it’s more like a test than a proper attack. If Iran continues to send single digit or even zero missiles in the coming days, then they are in grave trouble.
 

plawolf

Lieutenant General

More likely Trump wants to jump in immediately, but was convinced to wait until core US assets are on station before taking the leap.

I would expect more fighters to be moved to the ME and for the carriers to get in theatre as a minimum prerequisite for US to formally enter the war or else they risk a very underwhelming start and potentially even allowing Iran to get some hits in before they have the critical mass of forces needed to achieve overwhelming dominance.
 

FairAndUnbiased

Brigadier
Registered Member
More likely Trump wants to jump in immediately, but was convinced to wait until core US assets are on station before taking the leap.

I would expect more fighters to be moved to the ME and for the carriers to get in theatre as a minimum prerequisite for US to formally enter the war or else they risk a very underwhelming start and potentially even allowing Iran to get some hits in before they have the critical mass of forces needed to achieve overwhelming dominance.
They need to build up way more than this. Look at Operation Desert Shield which took 4 months.

They were rotating forces out of Diego as recently as 1 month ago so they did not have a sufficient medium term buildup.

The other part is geography. The Persian gulf is a death trap so the navy should be at standoff distance in the Arabian Sea. That would substantially limit sortie generation relative to Desert Storm where they parked carriers in the gulf itself.
 
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