You are forgetting all of the ‘good’ headchoppers the west have been helping into power all over the ME in recent years.
Headchoppers(in the way seen in Syria and Libya) are mostly a sunni salafist thing, though, and sunni's only make up 7% of Iran's population without much Saudi salafist infiltration, but I'm just especulating. I'd say MEK is a bigger threat and they are LARP-y "commies" so not headchoppers in the same vein either.
The west doesn’t need to put their own boots on the ground when they can just send in their housetrained jihadis and act as their air force. They have been doing it since Libya to great success.
Thats the thing though, Iranians aren't arabs for better and for worse, and outside the Kurds, doesn't seem as split by ethnic and religious identities as Libya and Syria were. Or at least they seem harder to exploit, from afar. Like I said, outside the MEK who are also shi'tes, there isn't really extensive armed groups or strong autonomous movements, at least apparently, that can be readily exploited the same way they were Libya or Syria.
Otherwise, the Gulf states would have pounced on the chance even before Israel.
It’s by no means a sure thing, but it is very likely to look plausible enough to convince Trump to give the green light. Let’s not forget that Trump himself has been on a long loosing streak and is desperate for a win, and taking down Iran will be a historic win that might just be too tempting for him to pass up.
True though I do wonder how much of it is just based on false intel or claims put forth by the Israelis that can't be backed. Kind of like Trump thinking he had any cards with regards Russia against Ukraine.
In this respect, it seems a lot of Israeli attacks are actually just car bombs and drones that are then claimed to be attacks by the IAF, to paint this picture they are running Desert Storm 2 over Tehran but there doesn't seem to be evidence of it. We had plenty of evidence of the IAF flexing over Beirut and Damascus with sonic booms and jet noise before, during and after attacks, which has been largely missing this time around.
Something like this
I guess the Israel powership was well aware of the challenge before lauching their operation, they must have something on the way... wait and see.
The israeli leadership also thought the Gaza operation would take a few months at best, or that Southern Lebanon would fold quickly to them. Not the first time they overplay their hand, the difference is that instead of backing down, they agressively double down. Keep in mind, a lot of these wars are caused to keep Netanyahu out of jail, not out of a rational long term strategy.
On that note, seems we have reached the point of not letting people leave and posturing videos