2025 Israel - Iranian conflict

Antey1

New Member
Registered Member
I don't understand, Current islamic govt and IRGC is ruling for 55 years. There is probably several million govt employees and force personnel. They have been vetting and promoting loyalists for 55 years and you think killing a few top leaders is gonna kill all the hardliners? what about the 10 guys down the next level? What about the 100 guy down the other next level?

You guys are delusional if you think there is anyone in Iranian govt that is not a hardliner. Everyone is a hardliner. Even if Ayatollah is killed, there is like 100 extremely hardline islamist Ayatollah's willing to take over the as new supreme leader.

Its like saying killing off CMC and standing comittee is going to lead to pro-west liberals coming to power in CCP.
That's why even netanyahu (oh my god, even him) tried to persuade the iranian population to topple the regime. i don't think they will succeed. people may hate the goverment, but they definitely don't like israel.
 

lube

Junior Member
Registered Member
I don't understand, Current islamic govt and IRGC is ruling for 55 years. There is probably several million govt employees and force personnel. They have been vetting and promoting loyalists for 55 years and you think killing a few top leaders is gonna kill all the hardliners? what about the 10 guys down the next level? What about the 100 guy down the other next level?

You guys are delusional if you think there is anyone in Iranian govt that is not a hardliner. Everyone is a hardliner. Even if Ayatollah is killed, there is like 100 extremely hardline islamist Ayatollah's willing to take over the as new supreme leader.

Its like saying killing off CMC and standing comittee is going to lead to pro-west liberals coming to power in CCP.

When we hear Iranian politicians talking about ceasefires, it's really sounding less like smart diplomatic play to make themselves look like victims, and more like a not-significant number of people in power in Iran really want the war to end and are glad Israel are weakening the IRGC.
 

jiajia99

Junior Member
Registered Member
When I come here and read people's posts I feel like Iran is finished, Israel is bombing the shit out of Iran, Iranian regime about to fall.

Then I go to twitter and all I see is Iranian missiles penetrating and destroying israel again and again. Israelis in panic, commentators saying Israel made a blunder.

What is the disconnect here? Is this forum that much pro-israel and pro-west? In the Russia thread on the other hand, its all about Russian triamphulism, how Ukraine is finished.

Then you go to misc news threads and it seems as the west is about to fall, US is finished.

I just don't understand what people think here. That US and Israel is invincible? Iran completely powerless and yet US about to fall apart?
Some people have gone mad I think, to me it’s always about letting things take time to happen. People said that the whole Syria thing was such a massive win for the west, how it is a game changer but really what did it honestly accomplish other then damaging certain countries reputation. In all honesty, like then, like in Ukraine where some like to criticise Russia on not going in guns blazing, a defeat is seldom the end of the story. Think on this, this is the first time Iran has done real damage against Israel the world cannot ignore. And given Israel started this fight and Iran hasn’t stopped shooting missiles as Israel as of yet, I don’t believe for a second that Israel is going to win this fight so easily as some have already assumed. But let’s wait a bit for the results to show and try to ignore some of the more hardline voices here, they will disappear in the coming weeks when the full extent of the damage is known and while Iran did take real damage, I can almost be positive that the kind of damage to Israel, but reputation, defence and society wise is bound to be greater.
 

tamsen_ikard

Senior Member
Registered Member
When we hear Iranian politicians talking about ceasefires, it's really sounding less like smart diplomatic play to make themselves look like victims, and more like a not-significant number of people in power in Iran really want the war to end and are glad Israel are weakening the IRGC.
We need to understand that the so called Iranian ministers are appointed by the President who is a reformist. The real rulers of Iran are the Islamic leaders and the IRGC. Iran has a president for some day to day function but the real decisions are made by the IRGC and islamic leaders. I am not surprized that the so called reformists are talking about ceasefire. This is their central foreign policy goal, which is to make a deal with the US.
 

lube

Junior Member
Registered Member
We have seen hits on Israeli defense ministry, numerous AD systems, University labs, Industrial factories. I am sure there were numerous attacks on military baracks and air bases as well. What other high valued targets is missing?

Iran cannot launch 2000 missiles when their whole stockpile is like 4-5000 probably. They need to think about contingencies such as US joining. If US joins, Iran will right away start hitting all the US bases in the middle east. It will probably close off hormuz, which will also need missiles. The missiles are their trump card, they cannot use all of them that easily and become sitting ducks.

I understand this line of thought, but it's uncomfortably close to what Hezbollah was thinking about saving their missile stockpiles, until it's too late.
 

Randomuser

Captain
Registered Member
Some people have gone mad I think, to me it’s always about letting things take time to happen. People said that the whole Syria thing was such a massive win for the west, how it is a game changer. In all honesty, like then, like in Ukraine where some like to criticise Russia on not going in guns blazing, a defeat is seldom the end of the story. Think on this, this is the first time Iran has done real damage against Israel the world cannot ignore. And given Israel starting this fight and Iran hasn’t stopped shooting missiles as Israel, I don’t believe for a second that Israel is going to win this fight. But let’s wait a bit for the results to show and try to ignore some of the more hardline voices here, they will disappear in the coming weeks when the full extent of the damage is known and while Iran did take real damage, I can almost be positive that the kind of damage to Israel, but reputation, defence and society wise is bound to be greater
To be fair Syria only recently fell. The real effects may come only after things are totally established. The same would apply to Iran but when the effects are finally realized, it might be too late.

Anyway this is purely hypothetical and we are still only a few days into the war so lets just see how Iran will hold out.
 

tamsen_ikard

Senior Member
Registered Member
I understand this line of thought, but it's uncomfortably close to what Hezbollah was thinking about saving their missile stockpiles, until it's too late.
Hezbollah still has a huge stockpile, they still control Southern Lebanon. So, no even Hezbollah is not done. They took a ceasefire, they didn't surrender. Hamas is also still standing, BTW
 
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