2025 Israel - Iranian conflict

T

tamsen_ikard

Senior Member
Registered Member
lube said:
If Russia took Ukraine seriously on day 1, we would be seeing the same things.
Shock and awe, giving Ukraine very little time to adapt under fire.

If Iran was a normal country I would say yes, they can replace everyone who died, and strategic depth means the fight evens out towards Iran. But we honestly don't know how much of their capabilities they can keep up after a week or more of bombing.

Unfortunately, don't think Iranians are mentally prepared for a real attritional war either. It'll be easy to say they can use the attack to rally around the flag, mobilize and gear up for a long fight and rush for the bomb but there's a chance they'll just fold and give up. Same way Ukraine would have collapsed within a week if Zelensky fled the capital.
Click to expand...
I don't know what you actually mean by "give up". What does that mean? This is not fist-fight between two person where one says I give up. This is two distant countries lobbing missiles over a distance of a thosuands of KMs. If the mood in the country is that we are being attacked and we need to fight, what does even mean "give up"? Ok we won't fight anymore? Is that even possible?

Iran in the current government system cannot by design "give up". There will have to be a coup and I don't think its remotely on the cards. Even if all of Iran's nuke plants are destroyed Iran will simply rebuild. Israel also doesn't have unlimited tolerance for pain either. They also don't have unlimited munitions or planes. Their pilots will be tired, their planes will need maintenance. Their bases are getting bombed by Iranian missiles.

There will be a mutual ceasefire sometime soon. It could come in days, weeks or months. When all dust settles, there will be a counting of how much damage Iran caused and how much Israel caused. If Iran can cause even 1/10th of what Israel has caused, that will be a victory.
 
T

Topazchen

Junior Member
Registered Member
Sinnavuuty said:
Israel must clearly be using stealth drones for ISR/ISTAR. They are using other types of drones as decoys and conducting a SEAD/DEAD campaign.

Not to change the topic from the war in Ukraine, but what Israel has done and is still doing is establish a clear superiority in SEAD/DEAD campaigns over the Russians who are unable to replicate any capability the IDF has demonstrated.
Click to expand...
Iran did not inherit hundreds of s300s from the soviet union complemented by NATO AD systems and ISR like Ukraine.

Americans would struggle to establish air dominance in Ukraine too.
 
L

lube

Junior Member
Registered Member
tamsen_ikard said:
I don't know what you actually mean by "give up". What does that mean? This is not fist-fight between two person where one says I give up. This is two distant countries lobbing missiles over a distance of a thosuands of KMs. If the mood in the country is that we are being attacked and we need to fight, what does even mean "give up"? Ok we won't fight anymore? Is that even possible?

Iran in the current government system cannot by design "give up". There will have to be a coup and I don't think its remotely on the cards. Even if all of Iran's nuke plants are destroyed Iran will simply rebuild. Israel also doesn't have unlimited tolerance for pain either. They also don't have unlimited munitions or planes. Their pilots will be tired, their planes will need maintenance. Their bases are getting bombed by Iranian missiles.

There will be a mutual ceasefire sometime soon. It could come in days, weeks or months. When all dust settles, there will be a counting of how much damage Iran caused and how much Israel caused. If Iran can cause even 1/10th of what Israel has caused, that will be a victory.
Click to expand...

I don't think Israel will stop bombing or discuss any sort of ceasefire as they have essentially unlimited funding from the US. Netanyahu has rolled the dice where they have to keep going and not let Iran rebuild and rush for a bomb.

I'll like to be pleasantly surprised Iranians will rally around the flag and keep it up but Israel has shown it's willing to go all in so it means destroying the entirety of Iran's oil export and hoping Iran shuts off the straits, potentially dragging the US into the war. There's no way to rush for the bomb in that scenario.
 
sequ

sequ

Colonel
Registered Member
sequ said:
It might be the real beginning of the end for the IR. It's very vulnerable now and open to civilian unrest and separatist tendencies.
Click to expand...
The separatist tendencies might have started:

"PJAK, the Iranian branch of the terrorist organization PKK, is preparing to occupy Iran's East and West Azerbaijan provinces by taking advantage of Israel's attacks."

https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1933925379343093815
 
Breadbox

Breadbox

Junior Member
Registered Member
Unforunately these recent events have only confirmed what we've known for awhile now. The Iranian state is compromised by traitors at all levels, at the grassroots as well as the top and have done nothing to clean house.

Iran, ever since the revolution have liked the idea of being a third force. Neither the east nor the west, neither authoritarian nor liberal. It doesn't matter if you have the vote, you are still getting your shit pushed in.

This middle path have only left it isolated and infiltrated by traitors at all levels.
The only thing keeping the IR in power is not sharing a land border with its adversaries. I believe Israel and United State are content with chipping away its credibility from afar until it folds to internal forces.

I'm not sure Iran could ever remedy this problem, a wide scale purge would destablise its already very shakey political situations and military capabilities. It's hanging by a thread to a point that no outside would get much out of supporting it long term.
 
Randomuser

Randomuser

Captain
Registered Member
Breadbox said:
Unforunately these recent events have only confirmed what we've known for awhile now. The Iranian state is compromised by traitors at all levels, at the grassroots as well as the top and have done nothing to clean house.

Iran, ever since the revolution have liked the idea of being a third force. Neither the east nor the west, neither authoritarian nor liberal. It doesn't matter if you have the vote, you are still getting your shit pushed in.

This middle path have only left it isolated and infiltrated by traitors at all levels.
The only thing keeping the IR in power is not sharing a land border with its adversaries. I believe Israel and United State are content with chipping away its credibility from afar until it folds to internal forces.

I'm not sure Iran could ever remedy this problem, a wide scale purge would destablise its already very shakey political situations and military capabilities. It's hanging by a thread to a point that no outside would get much out of supporting it long term.
Click to expand...
You can't fencesit and then complain when no one wants to help you as you are getting pummeled. It's the mistake India made. In it's conflicts with China and Pakistan, no one came to its aid.
 
zyklon

zyklon

Junior Member
Registered Member
tamsen_ikard said:
The mood in Iran is the opposite of what you are saying. I think Iranians want to go for the Bomb now with much greater gusto. Moods have shifted towards hardline.
Click to expand...

The irony, if not tragedy of the matter is that American and Israeli efforts nominally intended to prevent or at least delay Iranian progress towards a nuclear capability are in fact forcing the Islamic Republic to nuclearize as soon as possible as an imperative to regime survival.
 
siegecrossbow

siegecrossbow

General
Staff member
Super Moderator
hifisnow said:
Please, Log in or Register to view URLs content!
Archive:
Please, Log in or Register to view URLs content!


???Why would Iranian officials share those with NYT???


??????Why are they accepting interviews from NYT?????


OMG
Iran is an actual joke country
Click to expand...

Because NYT is a legit Anglo news source. Cucks want recognition, even anonymously.
 
You must log in or register to reply here.
Top