2025 Israel - Iranian conflict

tamsen_ikard

Senior Member
Registered Member
Even if Iran has 10k missiles, there's no chance of winning for Iran as the West will swoop in and protect Israel if it gets that bad but no one will help Iran.
All Iran can do is to save face in its domestic and international audience, and make Israel hurt enough to reach a ceasefire deal.
I don't know what you guys mean by winning. Iran's victory is not destroy israel this time. Its to cause enough pain to deter any future attacks like this. Its to survive with their missiles, AD, nuclear or other facilities intact as much as they can. And the ultimate goal is to ensure survival of the state. Their goal is defensive and achievable
 

SlothmanAllen

Senior Member
Registered Member
So does the US get involved against Iran at a certain point if this continues?

I think Iran has to calibrate its response because at the end of the day a US intervention on behalf of Israel would be devastating for the current Iranian regime. The US could destroy all of their infrastructure and all Iran can really do is strike US bases in the region which can be evacuated and don't actually do any real damage to America itself. If this continues to escalate, I just don't see how Iran comes out on top if the US gets involved. Russian and China are not coming to the aid of Iran. Especially if there is US involvement.
 

delfer

New Member
Registered Member
Even if Iran has 10k missiles, there's no chance of winning for Iran as the West will swoop in and protect Israel if it gets that bad but no one will help Iran.
All Iran can do is to save face in its domestic and international audience, and make Israel hurt enough to reach a ceasefire deal.
Not necessarily. The US is no position to go to war right now, what with Ukraine and Taiwan in the background, and Russia drooling to get payback.

They really cannot afford to make that decision, lest they want to lose on another front.

That’s what happens when you antagonize two major superpowers (China and Russia). You can’t turn your back anymore, and you can’t go around looting and destroying like you used to, or else you’ll get pounced on.
 

tamsen_ikard

Senior Member
Registered Member
So does the US get involved against Iran at a certain point if this continues?

I think Iran has to calibrate its response because at the end of the day a US intervention on behalf of Israel would be devastating for the current Iranian regime. The US could destroy all of their infrastructure and all Iran can really do is strike US bases in the region which can be evacuated and don't actually do any real damage to America itself. If this continues to escalate, I just don't see how Iran comes out on top if the US gets involved. Russian and China are not coming to the aid of Iran. Especially if there is US involvement.
Iran can do a lot more than that. Iran has enough anti-ship missiles to sink any carriers US bring nearby. US will not be able to strike Iran without damage. People should realize that Israel is the most defended airspace in the entire world. Not even China or Russia has that level of air defense density and Iran penetrated that. No one is safe from Iranian missiles.
 

AlexYe

Junior Member
Registered Member
Pentagon estimates were 2000 is their total stockpile capable of reaching Israel. This may just be a last stand knowing they're close to being out.
Just Fyi, the ISI intelligence about this (which is more accurate in this region than cia/pentagons) is 8000, but alot of them are 'stored' and will need to be dusted off

Also US is already helping out over Jordan airspace, shooting down drones/missiles, flying its planes.
 

SlothmanAllen

Senior Member
Registered Member
Iran can do a lot more than that. Iran has enough anti-ship missiles to sink any carriers US bring nearby. US will not be able to strike Iran without damage. People should realize that Israel is the most defended airspace in the entire world. Not even China or Russia has that level of air defense density and Iran penetrated that. No one is safe from Iranian missiles.
This is a great point! I have my doubts on the strength of Iranian anti-ship missiles though, especially the claim to be able to sink a carrier. Sinking a carrier is kind of like the holy grail of achievements in modern anti-ship warfare.

China has spent tremendous sums of money and talent on solving this problem and has come up with a layered system to do so. Iran just doesn't have the electronic warfare, remote sensing or layered anti-surface warfare systems to guarantee such an outcome. Certainly it could be possible, but in no way is it guaranteed.

EDIT: Is the Israeli play to try and draw the US into this conflict on their side?
 
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