This is the problem I see in this forum, too much overconfidence on China. Ukraine's attacks on Russian bombers and Israeli attack should be the wake up call by now, War is unpredictable and being more prepared is better than being complacent. When US sanctioned China's chip tech, the shock was huge, if US suddenly starts attacking China like Israel is doing now, China might be caught flat footed.
When the world was peaceful, it may have made sense to spend 1.5%. But I don't think we live in that world anymore. I think WW3 involving US and China is so much more likely now that the west feels its in danger. I think China needs to pivot from focusing too much on economic growth and start to prepare for war with much greater military spending. Winter is coming