2025 Israel - Iranian conflict

Gloire_bb

Major
Registered Member
Making Iran into a valuable ally in important area is what they want. Get it back to secular state, at least on par with Turkey. If that means destruction of Iran, I agree with you.
More complicated.
The problem is that US were heavily invested into Pahlavi(they brought him to power in the first place) - and Pahlavi reign was so good, that he was overtrhown by popular uprising.
US bad blood is very much with people of Iran, not just with the clerical elites.
 

yungho

Junior Member
Registered Member
(Edited with AI)

China has always been careful about how much it supports Iran—and for good reason.

Iran’s foreign policy has long been one of extremes: refusing to recognize Israel while openly calling for its destruction, maintaining tense (or outright hostile) relations with Saudi Arabia and the Gulf states, and even having shaky ties with regional players like Turkey and Pakistan. Add to that Iran’s deeply negative reputation in the U.S., and you are in a pickle.

The problem? Iran’s goals have never matched its actual capabilities. Pushing aggressive policies while lacking the economic or military strength to back them up makes for an unstable long-term strategy.

So why was China cautious? Simple—it had (and still has) way too much to lose.**

  • Strong ties with Saudi Arabia and the Gulf states, crucial for energy and investment.
  • Surprisingly functional relations with Israel, where political rhetoric doesn’t always match reality (e.g., Israel was an early adopter of Chinese-made DJI drones for military use).
  • A desire to avoid unnecessary blowback from the U.S. and its allies.
China wasn’t about to risk its own strategic interests just to fully align with Iran. Instead, it kept support measured—enough to maintain influence, but not so much that it would upset more important partnerships.
Agree it's not surprising given the history of China–Israel relations. China can't get to close to Iran, especially military, because China wants to maintain agood relationship with Israel. The main factor preventing closer China-Israel relations is the US.

China is aligned with Iran because Iran is against the US, but can't get too close because of Israel
China is somewhat aligned with Israel because of past military and current trade relations, but can't get too close because of the US
 

Randomuser

Captain
Registered Member
I mean its not like Iran didn't have people who studied outside the country as leaders.

Hassan Rouhani, the president of Iran from 2013-2021, has a PhD in Law from Glasgow Caledonian University. That was almost 10 years. Instead of strengthening the country, he critically weakened it at an important time and set the stage for today. It was during his presidency that he cowered to Obama and Trump's 1st admin, then Soleimani was killed, Iran was critically weakened with further sanctions, etc.

Hu and Xi only went on visits outside China and Jiang spent only a few years in the Soviet Union. They generally held things steady, at the very least. The leaders that got intimidated, mostly those in the 1980s, overreacted, did too much shock therapy, and it led to instability. Rouhani got intimidated by his experience in the UK into submission.
I guess it really depends on the person. Unfortunately it seems the ones who made it to high positions in Iran learnt the wrong lessons and came to the wrong conclusions.

You can either have a Kim Jong Un or someone like Rouhani.
 

Mmmeeeto

Junior Member
Registered Member
Pakistan got J-10Cs after Indians bought Su-30s and Rafales, it helped shift balance of power towards Pakistan. Israel and Iran conflict is like only if India got foreign fighters and Pakistan got nothing.

the "saboteurs on the ground" achieved it's objectives because Iran doesn't have good shorad which China and easily provide. Iran currently is hopelessly outmatched in the skies, J-10Cs and HQ-9s are going to help with that.
A few j-10ce's and a kj 500 would've scared them off.
 

zyklon

Junior Member
Registered Member
1. China isn't going to come to Iran's aid. That's just not how China operates.

The most China might do for Iran in a sustained regional conflict is what China has done for Russia: increased access to Chinese capital and goods, including those of the "dual use" variety. So effectively what China has already been doing for Iran for years as a result of Western sanctions, but maybe with a little more effort if Iran asks for help.

Beyond that there isn't much that's worth hoping for or talking about.

2. Even if regime change occurs in Iran, and the country goes "full cuck," the new administration in Tehran will be friendly to Beijing.

Besides the fact that there are no major tensions or historical disputes between the Chinese and Iranians in general, China is both the #1 importer of Iranian exports, in particular crude, and the #1 source of exports headed to Iran. That is not going to change over night.

Regime change in Tehran may actually encourage more Chinese trade with and investment in Iran once the risk of secondary sanctions are lifted.

3. The Trump administration is denying that the US played a role in these attacks, but there are already rumors that USAF tankers and ISR platforms enabled the Israeli strikes.

Regardless of whether the USAF was involved or not, the Israelis almost certainly leveraged US diplomatic support given the sovereign airspace that they would've had to access to execute these strikes against Iran, never mind where many of their munitions came from.

Israel is now hoping and praying that Iran blames both them and the US for these strikes: what they really want is for the Iranians to target American forces in the region in retaliation, which will then generate domestic political pressure on Trump to strike Iran directly.
 

sheogorath

Colonel
Registered Member
More complicated.
The problem is that US were heavily invested into Pahlavi(they brought him to power in the first place) - and Pahlavi reign was so good, that he was overtrhown by popular uprising.
US bad blood is very much with people of Iran, not just with the clerical elites.
Can see the same with Russia. No matter how much they tried to aproach the west it was never enough, and the US isn't going to be happy until Russia stops existing completely.

Agree it's not surprising given the history of China–Israel relations. China can't get to close to Iran, especially military, because China wants to maintain agood relationship with Israel. The main factor preventing closer China-Israel relations is the US.
Why should China want a closer relationship with a white supremacist state, though?. If Iran is a liability, Israel is an even bigger one with a policy in which they openly threaten to nuke every ally they have if they are allowed to go down.

There is too much sentimentality just because they didn't care about US interests enough to flout some sanctions on China back in the day.
 

Tomboy

Junior Member
Registered Member
A few j-10ce's and a kj 500 would've scared them off.
Lol no you think a KJ-500 with a handful of J-10CEs will be capable of taking on Israel's fleet of F-35s, F15Is and F16s? Not mention Iran's air defense and BMD is basically gone, these planes are just going to be targets on the ground. J-10Cs aren't magic, they can't go up against 5th gens without a complex network of sensors and AEWC which only the PLAAF can afford to operate and even then it really only gives them a fighting chance against 5th gens.
 

FairAndUnbiased

Brigadier
Registered Member
I would imagine an AR scenario to be similar, given the level of infiltration of Taiwan from top to bottom.
yes but with reservation. Russia also infiltrated Ukraine to the same degree - or so they thought. Turned out most of their assets were double agents or were purged in the first few weeks of the war, and now it is 100% purely conventional inside Ukraine. And it also turns out that Ukraine has assets inside Russia too.

China has a more robust internal security system than Russia but is facing a bigger threat too.
 
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