2025 Israel - Iranian conflict

zyklon

zyklon

Junior Member
Registered Member
Mmmeeeto said:
View attachment 155097
Esmail Qaani, commander of the IRGC Quds Force, was spotted in Tehran victory celebration after NYT claimed he was killed in an air strike on June 13
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The Iranians have declared victory?

What sort of surreal timeline is this?!

manqiangrexue said:
I don't think these 2 operations delayed anything. Before them, Iran wasn't making a nuclear weapon; it was teasing making a nuclear weapon but actually trying to make deals. Now, Iran should be very serious about making nuclear weapons and shutting up whilst doing it. If anything, it put a derailed train onto the correct tracks.
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Operation Midnight Hammer and adjacent Israeli aggression against Iran may not have impeded the progress of the Iranian nuclear weapons program in a significant fashion.

However, depending on how things move forward and how serious the Iranians are about achieving a nuclear capability, a delay of months or even weeks is not irrelevant.

manqiangrexue said:
1. Iran has to survive and not end up torn apart by hostile military action. This obstacle is already surmounted, and we thought they could not on the first night. It once again demonstrates the importance of the strategic depth; the victories of small countries are temporary, as are the defeats of large nations. Bravo!
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Unfortunately for Iran, the Israelis aren't going to easily relent even if they're willing to pay lip service to Trump's ceasefire.

manqiangrexue said:
2. Iran has to not only realize that investing in weapons is important but it is all about the comprehensive combat ecosystem; they cannot expect to order J-10CE/J-35CE, park 3 dozen of them in some run down air bases (potentially teaming with Mossad spies sabotaging them) with no AWACs or any other support and expect them to be effective. They need constant combat training and tactics development with the other elements of their ecosystem. I have a feeling that they do not understand this yet unless they were able to pick this up watching Pakistan. If not, they need to accept tutelage before they are allowed to buy any weapons. This is the final piece to making Iran the Rising Lion of the middle east.
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Unless Iran is willing to turn into North Korea in terms of its commitment to national defense, the modernization of its military will not occur until US sanctions ease, or until US sanctions are rendered irrelevant as the global political and economic centers of gravity further shift toward Beijing at Washington's expense.
 
AlexYe

AlexYe

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Registered Member
manqiangrexue said:
I don't think these 2 operations delayed anything. Before them, Iran wasn't making a nuclear weapon; it was teasing making a nuclear weapon but actually trying to make deals. Now, Iran should be very serious about making nuclear weapons and shutting up whilst doing it. If anything, it put a derailed train onto the correct tracks.

The damage done by Mossad sabotage also became a clear wake-up call for Iranian intelligence, but also the common Iranian people to defend against Israeli intelligence penetration. This was really Israel's biggest edge and hopefully, Iran can take it off the table in the future.

Coupled with the Rafale Tandoori incident proving that worshipping Western weapons is a thing of the past, this is actually a spoon-fed oppertunity to turn Iran into the Rising Lion instead of Israel.

There are/were only 2 caveats:
1. Iran has to survive and not end up torn apart by hostile military action. This obstacle is already surmounted, although we thought they could not on the first night. Bravo! It once again demonstrates the importance of the strategic depth; the victories of small countries are temporary, as are the defeats of large nations. That's why small aggressive countries like imperial Japan and Israel are so desperate to expand.
2. Iran has to not only realize the importance of investing in the right weapons from the right manufacturers, but the criticality of creating a comprehensive combat ecosystem; they cannot expect to order J-10CE/J-35CE, park 3 dozen of them in some run down air bases (potentially teaming with Mossad spies sabotaging them) with no AWACs or any other support and expect them to be effective. They need constant combat training and tactics development with the other elements of their ecosystem. I have a feeling that they do not understand this yet unless they were able to pick this up watching Pakistan. They need to accept tutelage and training in modern combat strategy before they are allowed to buy any weapons. This is the final piece to making Iran the Rising Lion of the middle east.
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This will sound completely Insane but I think if Iran was smart they should go just say 'yeah everything about the nuclear stuff is destroyed' And we are done with Nuclear stuff, Remove the sanctions, and THEN invite trump for a state visit, start with playing to his ego, throw some vague thing about mineral /rare earth deals (iran prob has some). He visits and like syria the sanctions are removed, they shake hands. Maybe give trump a 'Trump Tower' In Tehran.
But secretly keep working on the nuclear stuff till its 100% ready, meanwhile with sanctions off start modernizing / get economy up.
If Israel ever attacks again, just do the nuke test that day.
 
T

tamsen_ikard

Senior Member
Registered Member
AlexYe said:
This will sound completely Insane but I think if Iran was smart they should go just say 'yeah everything about the nuclear stuff is destroyed' And we are done with Nuclear stuff, Remove the sanctions, and THEN invite trump for a state visit, start with playing to his ego, throw some vague thing about mineral /rare earth deals (iran prob has some). He visits and like syria the sanctions are removed, they shake hands. Maybe give trump a 'Trump Tower' In Tehran.
But secretly keep working on the nuclear stuff till its 100% ready, meanwhile with sanctions off start modernizing / get economy up.
If Israel ever attacks again, just do the nuke test that day.
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That kind of trick doesn't work when there are spies everywhere. Nothing is truly secret anymore in any country.
 
AlexYe

AlexYe

Junior Member
Registered Member
tamsen_ikard said:
That kind of trick doesn't work when there are spies everywhere. Nothing is truly secret anymore in any country.
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I am assuming a 'smart Iran' in which they are doing serious intelligence failure fixing/purging/ enhancing,
The next scientists arent living in high-rise buildings with their address available via google. stuff like that
 
D

Derpy

Junior Member
Registered Member
manqiangrexue said:
2. Iran has to not only realize the importance of investing in the right weapons from the right manufacturers, but the criticality of creating a comprehensive combat ecosystem; they cannot expect to order J-10CE/J-35CE, park 3 dozen of them in some run down air bases (potentially teaming with Mossad spies sabotaging them) with no AWACs or any other support and expect them to be effective. They need constant combat training and tactics development with the other elements of their ecosystem. I have a feeling that they do not understand this yet unless they were able to pick this up watching Pakistan. They need to accept tutelage and training in modern combat strategy before they are allowed to buy any weapons. This is the final piece to making Iran the Rising Lion of the middle east.
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Even if they get their act together they do not have the Economy to build let alone buy an IADS that can deter The U.S. Even one to just deter Israel alone would be a stretch. Their recent performance is so abysmal it's almost comical, Israel established total air dominance to the point they could fly gen 4 planes and slow drones directly over Teheran 1500km away within days. A non corrupt government that have the support of it's people can not get infiltrated the way Iran got, unless that changes they will not perform any better next time regardless of what gear they have.
 
T

TPenglake

Junior Member
Registered Member
US intelligence assesses that the strikes only set Iran's nuclear program back by months.

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With that and nationalist fervor motivating Iranians to rally behind the regime, it may have come at a cost, but I think its safe to say now the Iranians probably won this round.

Besides beating the dead horse on things Iranians should do to improve their defense, I feel another factor here is a potential rift in the US-Israeli relationship. What this report lays bare is that Israel was forced to abandon its war goals all so that Trump could snag a PR victory. If signs indicate Iran will go full steam ahead on its nuclear program, will the Israelis feel compelled to restart the war on their own and risk incurring Trump's wrath by making him a laughing stock in the media? We'll see, but I wouldn't be surprised if that thought was on their mind.
 
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