Israeli Hermes 900 over Karmenshah in central Iran.
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2025 Israel - Iranian conflict
- Thread starter Maikeru
- Start date
Yes, the ending is that they will sign an agreement with the devil.
Its saying that ITS NOT hermes 900 but Shahed 129 drones,
Internet will be shut down across the country tonight
Expect More BS in coming hours and days to justify Trump's decision....
Israel ultimate collapsing some weaker underground facilities at scale somehow.
This implies bunker busters at least over western Iran.
Damn these things are yuuuuuge
You have to be kidding me.
Because there is nothing better than enjoying the rest of your vacation in a bomb shelter.
Because there is nothing better than enjoying the rest of your vacation in a bomb shelter.
Many of the THAAD interceptor are permanently based in Korea for boost phase interception or owned by Saudi Arabia and UAE.The podcast is over. Here's a brief:
1) Iran military is totally screwed in Day One, but they're recovering & performing better day by day. That's why Israel is begging US.
2) Iran Air Defense is totally gone. Firstly by terrorist-like infiltrator attacks (with FPV drones & Spikes), then air-based SEAD/DEAD ops.
3) After AD was gone, IAF got total air superiority over Iran. They destoried lots of exposed BM TEL vehicles outside, and blocked the entrances to missile city under mountains. (Even GBU-57 can't destroy these mountain bases, best IAF can do is to block entrances via strikes.)
4) TEL losses limited Iranian missiles' salvo scale in earlier days. But with more infiltrators caught & more mountain base entrances cleaned out, they're getting more available TELs & missile storage from mountain bases. Can see today's missile launch salvo scale is larger than days before. More BM TEL vehicles were seen around Tehran today in a coordinated launch.
5) Attacking TELs won't hurt storage too much, but will limit salvo scale, thus easier to intercept for Israel.
6) We've seen Israel's AD is significantly weaker under today's Iranian missile attack. Mossad HQ is totally destroyed today, without much AD seen. Iran is a much larger country than Israel, which means much more potential & logistics. Meanwhile Israel is getting out of ammo. So next thing to watch is whether US will intervene, otherwise Israel can't hold this conflict too long.
Attention: US THAAD ammo is estimated around 300~400 in total right now, will US keep this war going? With restricted Rare Earth export limits US' further ammo production, some country is more than happy if US intervenes.
Nothing says you're winning like banning your people from leaving.
Trump is a deeply insecure narcissist who does a lot of things — that can be good, bad or a combination thereof in terms of effects — solely to satisfy his insatiable addiction to external validation, especially public recognition affirming his perception of himself as a winner, if not the winner.
Trump shouldn't need to be told that wartime leaders presiding over military victories are frequently, if not usually remembered as winners.
So even if Trump is somehow not looking to boost public support for Republicans facing competitive 2026 midterm races, while giving the Israel Lobby reason to be extra generous this midterm cycle; Trump may still be convinced to direct US entry into the ongoing conflict out of the belief that victory will be reasonably achievable, and a public win over America's principal nation-state adversary in the Middle East will elevate him above the predecessors who had botched one American (mid)adventure after another since at least the Vietnam War.
In fact, considering the speed and ease at which Trump openly doubted and diminished his own sitting DNI and the broader American IC on the conclusions they've established upon decades of institutional programs, thousands of careers and billions of $ invested in spying on and studying Iran, then Trump has likely already "made up his mind" about how he will handle Iran.
The other thing about Trump is that he has a combative personality, and is known for his willingness to embrace controversial, if not contrarian ideas if that's what his gut is telling him to do.
So when reasonable or reasonable enough reporters dare to ask Trump questions that implicitly criticize his "maximum pressure" approach towards Iran, then Trump will almost inevitably want to bomb Iran even more as a metaphorical middle finger directed against those who've unfairly wronged him with their words.
Owing to the ongoing unavailability of commercial air travel in Israel, affluent Israelis and foreigners are reportedly paying $$$-$$$$ to be evacuated by yacht to Cyprus.
So if ships are still able to sail to and from Israeli ports, then it should be plausible for the PLAN to dispatch warships to Eilat or Haifa to evacuate Chinese citizens, assuming the Israeli authorities are receptive to the arrival of PLAN warships conducting non-combatant evacuation operations in the current security environment.
Alternatively, it might be faster and easier for Chinese citizens to evacuate to Jordan from Israel by bus or car, and continue onward travel from there. This is reportedly how some EU countries are evacuating their citizens out of Israel.
The Ukrainian population in Israel tend to possess Israeli passports as they usually immigrate under the Law of Return rather than arrive as guest workers or in some other capacity.
So even if the EU is no longer receptive to Ukrainian refugees, the current US administration led by Trump may still warmly welcome them as Israeli refugees, whose arrival will inevitably inspire even more excitement and enthusiasm than what has been captured by the arrival of Afrikaner victims of the genocidal nation of South Africa!
Late is better than never, but this is also an extremely inconvenient, if not outright inelegant solution for mitigating SIGINT threats.
After Israel maimed thousands and killed at least dozens of Hezbollah members, associates and family members with exploding beepers last year, Iran should have intensified efforts to harden government and military communications networks against SIGINT threats.
So if the Iranian authorities are resorting to the extremely inconvenient solution of banning officials — presumably occupying certain sensitive positions, and/or serving at or above specific levels of seniority, as well as their PSDs, so guessing other aids and staff too — from using "all connected devices," then it appears the Iranians have finally realized the depth and breadth of Unit 8200 and NSA penetration into their communications networks.
Things must have looked dire to the Iranians if they're desperate enough to embrace a solution that could necessitate the use of couriers (not necessarily quite al Qaeda style), depending on what, if any secure communications networks remain serviceable for the Iranians, as well as the number of secure terminals/modems/devices available for immediate use by officials who've finally discovered an appreciation for COMSEC.