Re: World News Thread & Breaking News!!
I don't think it take courage to say even Putin can't escape the consequences of losing the most important part of the former Soviet Union outside of Russia herself, and the oldest and most long standing part of the Russian empire.
If Russia loses Ukraine, Russia would effectively return to the same status she had after the crushing peace of Breast-Litovsk in 1918, except now there is no prospect of her main tormentor also going down in defeat within 8 month, nor strong pant up political pressure at home to instill a fundamentally new regime with popular and ideological appeal.
I think it is a brave man that writes Vladimar Putin's obituary ahead of time!
I suspect that very little has caught the Kremlin by surprise. The fact that they released the transcript of one embarrassing conversation between Nuland and Pyatt, does ask the question as to what other conversations were they party too?
The fact remains that the events of today are contrary to an agreement signed by all the parties yesterday and endorsed by the outside powers. Yanukovych has denounced the moves today as a coup and seems to have known in advance that it was coming and so moved himself and his administration to the East of the Country.
I suspect that the plan was to impeach and arrest a la Morsi and to make the coup and fait accompli. Clearly this is not how it has turned out and now the Eastern Regions, although stressing their commitment to national integrity, are not going to listen to the dictates from the opposition in Kiev.
Finally as Sochi comes to a close, Mr Putin will back to business as usual. The Strongest part of the nation is still Pro Russian, the legitimate President of the Ukraine is still at large and the backers of the Opposition are going to have to do a lot of explaining as to why they have torn up their own agreement.
I think this is far from over and the next phase is going to be very interesting indeed!
I don't think it take courage to say even Putin can't escape the consequences of losing the most important part of the former Soviet Union outside of Russia herself, and the oldest and most long standing part of the Russian empire.
If Russia loses Ukraine, Russia would effectively return to the same status she had after the crushing peace of Breast-Litovsk in 1918, except now there is no prospect of her main tormentor also going down in defeat within 8 month, nor strong pant up political pressure at home to instill a fundamentally new regime with popular and ideological appeal.