09V/09VI (095/096) Nuclear Submarine Thread

[sunnymaxi]

I'm pretty sure those were just 09V hulls which started to appear in late 2023 before a launch in early 2026. No 14m (or for the matter anything larger than ~12m) hull sections were ever observed at Huludao which makes it IMO unlikely for any 09VIs to be in late stages of assembly. That is of course assuming 09VI will not go down the old route of 09IV and 092 and share the same pressure hull diameter as the respective SSN of their generation.

yeah we didn't see any pressure hull larger than 12m so far in satellite imagery but there is likely some kind of work going on for first 096 unit if we see the tenders. either assembly has started or about to start.

 

[AndrewS]

While I also think this is the likeliest scenario, I wouldn't exclude one where PLANs emphasis on anti-shipping capabilities as you said resulted in a similar route as the Soviet Navy fielding the Echo, Charlie and Oscar SSGNs for this specific reason.

I see it mainly as a budgetary decision.

The US is ramping production to 4 SSN-equivalents per year, where an SSBN is roughly two SSNs.

I wouldn't be surprised if China is aiming for 6+ SSN-equivalents per year, given:
1. the size of the new Huludao facilities
2. the USA becoming an aggressive and unpredictable imperial power, particularly in the past year
3. the production rates elsewhere with the Chinese Navy (at or reaching twice the US level in other warship categories)
4. China being significantly behind in quiet nuclear submarine numbers, compared to other warship categories.

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At 6 per year, this could be:
4x Type-095 SSN
1x SSBN/SSGN

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A notional large SSGN design (based on the SSBN) would be significantly more efficient in terms of [platform cost per missile tube] when compared to a stretched Type-095.

And when you already have 4 SSNs being produced per year, there is space in the force structure for a large specialised SSGN.

 

[AndrewS]

Even the Russians have seemingly delegated SSGN tasks to their Yasen SSNs so as to combine the SSN/SSGN roles into one hull.
If China really wanted, she could commission a "stretched" variant of the 09V or even convert the old 09IVs into SSGNs, but given the emphasis of the PLAN on anti-shipping rather than expeditionary land-attack duties, these are unlikely prospects. For the time being, given the doctrine of the PLAN and the naval force structure that supports it, 24 VLS cells on the 09IIIB and 09V would be more than sufficient.

The Russians are only building one Yasen per year.
If they want SSGNs, they do have to combine the SSN/SSGN role, like what we see with the stretched Virginia.

And they can't afford to increase nuclear submarine production to have specialised submarine classes.

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Today, the Russia Navy is building one Yasen and one Borei annually. So call it 3 SSN-equivalents per year.

 

[AndrewS]

Given that the Russians are at 3 SSN-equivalents per year, the Chinese Navy at 6 per year seems pretty modest actually.

 

[Dante80]

How much they can build in a year and how much they are building in a year is not necessarily the same.

Truth be told, I'd have trouble believing that PLAN is currently (or in the last years) @ a 6 SSN equivalent pace.

I think this is still a transitory period.

 

[4Tran]

It feels like the PLAN is still trying out designs and they're waiting for one that they really like before building them in large numbers.

 

[AndrewS]

It feels like the PLAN is still trying out designs and they're waiting for one that they really like before building them in large numbers.

The Type-093B already has a natural circulation reactor and a pump jet propulsion.

That is better than the Improved Los Angeles and presumably approaching the Virginia.

Then the US moved onto the Seawolf and Virginia, which have noise levels comparable to ocean background levels. At this point, further improvements in quietness don't make much difference, although there does appear to be a hydrodynamic limit of 28 knots for "silent" speed, for both the Yasen and Virginia.

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Given that the Type-095 has a larger hull than the Type-093B and it is comparable in size to the Seawolf, the Type-095 almost certainly has rafting as well.

It follows that the Type-095 should also have noise levels comparable to the Seawolf and Virginia. We have tender documents for an electric drive and electromagnetic torpedo tubes, which are more advanced than what US submarines use.

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We also have rumours that the second batch of eight Type-093B have been ordered, so this is already mass/batch production.

Granted, it will take a few years for the Type-095 to be tested, the bugs worked out, and the shipyard to gear up for mass production, but it will happen.

 

[AndrewS]

How much they can build in a year and how much they are building in a year is not necessarily the same.

Truth be told, I'd have trouble believing that PLAN is currently (or in the last years) @ a 6 SSN equivalent pace.

I think this is still a transitory period.

Yes, I agree this is still a transitory phase and that they aren't at 6 SSN-equivalents per year.

In the past few years, I think they were at 3-4 per year, but are now ramping production capacity.

With the rumour that the Southern Assembly Hall was designed for SSN mass production, then with a very conservative 24 month assembly time, that works out as 4 SSNs per year.

Then you've got the Eastern Assembly Hall with a similar floor area.

 

[Broccoli]

Increased production capability makes sense if PLAN is moving towards nuclear submarine force and cuts diesel submarine construction. Probably lot of workers being freed from building diesel submarines.

 

[AndrewS]

Increased production capability makes sense if PLAN is moving towards nuclear submarine force and cuts diesel submarine construction. Probably lot of workers being freed from building diesel submarines.

Well, diesel-electric submarine production has already stopped and the SSKN is being produced at 1 per year?

If they have 2MWe available, then that would be a sustained speed of about 13? knots, so I could see them increasing to 2 per year.
But if the SSKN only has 1.3MW, then it would be about 8 knots, and I think they'll just keep it to 1 per year.

At 1-2 per year, is there actually any additional spare submarine construction capacity/workers at Wuchang shipyard?