First of all, I believe this is a propaganda method by Australian politicians to promote aukus. But 21 new nuclear sub is possible. It is 7 years From 2024 to 2030, according to the progress of the past two years and the construction capacity of Huludao, 2 SSNs each year are reasonable. Based on historical data, an SSBN every two years is not surprising. These two add up to 18. If the three 093Bs launched in the past two years are added in, it will be exactly 21…
09V/09VI (095/096) Nuclear Submarine Thread
- Thread starter Hendrik_2000
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Here's my own take on the matter.
If the claimed "21x SSN + SSBN" figure (by 2030, that is) is anywhere near accurate, then according to the 14FYP (2021-2025) warship construction plan for the PLAN previously alleged by pop3, there would be ~11x SSNs + SSBNs launched for that period. Assuming similar rates of nuclear submarine construction by Huludao going forward, that leaves ~10x more to be built within the 15FYP (2026-2030), which should be reasonable.
Though, given the present and near-future geopolitical situations in the IndoPac, I do believe that the PLA CMC will procure more and more advanced SSNs towards the end of this decade, as these underwater bayonets are especially crucial for China's war effort in a hypothetical Pacific War 2.0.
Alongside the recently-completed expansion of newer and larger submarine construction facilities at Huludao, followed by the gradual spool-up of the construction speed & capacity in the coming years (as the expansion of qualified shipyard worker pool comes into play), I do believe that we would see Huludao launching more nuclear-powered submarines every year for the coming years.
One more thing, though - What I should've mentioned clearly WRT to my "18/21 nuke subs by 2023 is very likely an underestimate" claim in the above post is that this should also take the "mini-nuke" SSNs into account, which I have provided . These "mini-nuke" SSNs are expected to be constructed at Jiangnan and Wuchang instead of Huludao, and should allow greater numbers of them to be procured quicker than the larger, proper SS(G)Ns, i.e. 093/A/B and 095.
Hence, adding to previous "XX SSNs & SSBNs launched" claim, the total number of Chinese nuclear-powered submarines to be launched by 2030 is most likely to be greater than just 21.
I'm not sure why people are even debating the "21 nuclear submarines thing".
The news video segment from the outset made it very clear that it was stating "21 nuclear submarines would exist/be in service by 2030" inclusive of existing nuclear submarines (but minus retirement of some of the oldest nuclear submarines). That in turn is likely from a US report to congress on PLA/PLAN.
If people want to talk about how many additional nuclear submarines they might build, then they should stop talking about "21 new nuclear submarines by 2030" as if that number has any meaning because if anyone keeps using that number then it means they didn't read or watch the video segment.
Instead, just talk about nuclear submarine production capacity in general.
What makes this all the more head-slam-into-wall maddening is people here are acknowledging this idiotic Sky news video segment to begin with.
Can people stop debasing themselves and this forum, and actually consider what news and what sources are actually even worth acknowledging and which ones should be actively disregarded? Seriously, sometimes there is news where actively ignoring them is the best, most healthy thing for this forum and for PLA watching, and the mere acknowledgement of its existence drags the discourse down.
The news video segment from the outset made it very clear that it was stating "21 nuclear submarines would exist/be in service by 2030" inclusive of existing nuclear submarines (but minus retirement of some of the oldest nuclear submarines). That in turn is likely from a US report to congress on PLA/PLAN.
If people want to talk about how many additional nuclear submarines they might build, then they should stop talking about "21 new nuclear submarines by 2030" as if that number has any meaning because if anyone keeps using that number then it means they didn't read or watch the video segment.
Instead, just talk about nuclear submarine production capacity in general.
What makes this all the more head-slam-into-wall maddening is people here are acknowledging this idiotic Sky news video segment to begin with.
Can people stop debasing themselves and this forum, and actually consider what news and what sources are actually even worth acknowledging and which ones should be actively disregarded? Seriously, sometimes there is news where actively ignoring them is the best, most healthy thing for this forum and for PLA watching, and the mere acknowledgement of its existence drags the discourse down.
Old picture from a few years ago, that we are aware of.
Between 1974 and 1980 inclusive the US launched 22 nuclear submarines of the Los Angeles and Ohio Class.
Wiki is a mess when it comes to the PLA. We have no indications that two 096 are being built. We heard some stuff about new SSBN construction and that's it.
MSM starts to report the supposed progress in Chinese submarine force.
HONG KONG (Reuters) - A submarine arms race is intensifying as China embarks on production of a new generation of nuclear-armed submarines that for the first time are expected to pose a challenge to growing U.S. and allied efforts to track them.
Analysts and regional defense attaches say evidence is mounting that China is on track to have its Type 096 ballistic missile submarine operational before the end of the decade, with breakthroughs in its quietness aided in part by Russian technology.
Research discussed at a conference in May at the U.S. Naval War College and published in August by the college's China Maritime Studies Institute predicts the new vessels will be far harder to keep tabs on. That conclusion is credible, according to seven analysts and three Asia-based military attaches.
"The Type 096s are going to be a nightmare," said retired submariner and naval technical intelligence analyst Christopher Carlson, one of the researchers. "They are going to be very, very hard to detect."
The discreet effort to track China's nuclear-powered and -armed ballistic missile submarines, known as SSBNs, is one of the core drivers of increased deployments and contingency planning by the U.S. Navy and other militaries across the Indo-Pacific region. That drive is expected to intensify when Type 096s enter service.
The Chinese navy is routinely staging fully armed nuclear deterrence patrols with its older Type 094 boats out of Hainan Island in the South China Sea, the Pentagon said in November, much like patrols operated for years by the United States, Britain, Russia and France.
But the Type 094s, which carry China's most advanced submarine-launched JL-3 missile, are considered relatively noisy - a major handicap for military submarines.
The paper notes that the Type 096 submarine will compare to state-of-the-art Russian submarines in terms of stealth, sensors and weapons. It said that jump in capabilities would have "profound" implications for the U.S. and its Indo-Pacific allies.
Based partly on Chinese military journals, internal speeches by senior People's Liberation Army (PLA) officers and patent data, the paper charts more than 50 years of the PLA navy's often-glacial nuclear submarine development.
It contains satellite imagery taken in November at China's new Huludao shipyard showing pressure hull sections for a large submarine being worked up. That puts construction on schedule to have the boats operational by 2030, the timeline stated in the Pentagon's annual reports on China's military.
But the Type 094s, which carry China's most advanced submarine-launched JL-3 missile, are considered relatively noisy - a major handicap for military submarines.
The paper notes that the Type 096 submarine will compare to state-of-the-art Russian submarines in terms of stealth, sensors and weapons. It said that jump in capabilities would have "profound" implications for the U.S. and its Indo-Pacific allies.
Based partly on Chinese military journals, internal speeches by senior People's Liberation Army (PLA) officers and patent data, the paper charts more than 50 years of the PLA navy's often-glacial nuclear submarine development.
It contains satellite imagery taken in November at China's new Huludao shipyard showing pressure hull sections for a large submarine being worked up. That puts construction on schedule to have the boats operational by 2030, the timeline stated in the Pentagon's annual reports on China's military.
The research also details potential breakthroughs in specific areas, including pump-jet propulsion and internal quieting devices, based on "imitative innovation" of Russian technology.
Neither the Russian nor the Chinese defence ministries responded to Reuters' requests for comment.
The vessel is likely to be significantly larger than the Type 094, allowing it to contain an internal "raft" mounted on complex rubber supports to dampen engine noise and other sounds, similar to Russian designs.
Carlson told Reuters he did not believe China had obtained Russia's "crown jewels" - its very latest technology - but would be producing a submarine stealthy enough to compare to Moscow's Improved Akula boats.
"We have a hard time finding and tracking the Improved Akulas as it is," Carlson said.
Singapore-based defense scholar Collin Koh said the research opened a window on discreet research projects to improve China's SSBNs as well as boosting its anti-submarine warfare capabilities.
"They know they are behind the curve, so they are trying to play catch-up in terms of quieting and propulsion," said Koh, of Singapore's S. Rajaratnam School of International Studies.
Carlson said he believed China's strategists would, like Russia, keep SSBNs within protective "bastions" close to its coasts, utilising recently fortified holdings in the disputed South China Sea.
ECHO OF THE COLD WAR
The prospect of advanced SSBNs will significantly complicate an already intense subsurface surveillance battle.
In an echo of the Cold War-era effort to hunt for Soviet "boomers", the tracking of Chinese submarines is increasingly an international effort, with the Japanese and Indian militaries assisting the United States, Australia and Britain, analysts and military attaches say.
Anti-submarine warfare drills are increasing, as are deployments of sub-hunting P-8 Poseidon aircraft around Southeast Asia and the Indian Ocean.
The United States, Japan, India, South Korea, Australia, Britain and New Zealand operate the advanced plane, which use sonobuoys and other more advanced techniques, such as scanning the ocean surface, to find submarines far below.
The United States is also carrying out the biggest overhaul of its top-secret undersea surveillance network since the 1950s to combat China's growing presence, Reuters reported in September.
The prospect of a quieter Chinese SSBN is driving, in part, the AUKUS deal among Australia, Britain and the U.S., which will see increased deployments of British and U.S. attack submarines to Western Australia. By the 2030s, Australia expects to launch its first nuclear-powered attack submarines with British technology.
"We are at a fascinating point here," said Alexander Neill, a Singapore-based defense analyst. "China is on track with a new generation of submarine ahead of the first AUKUS boats - even if they are at parity in terms of capability, that is highly significant," said Neill, an adjunct fellow at Hawaii's Pacific Forum think-tank.
Even if China's submarine force reaches technological parity, it will need to train aggressively and intensively over the next decade to match AUKUS capabilities, he added.
Vasily Kashin, a Moscow-based Chinese military scholar at HSE University, said it was possible Chinese engineers had made the breakthroughs described in the report.
Although China most likely obtained some key Russian technology in the 1990s after the break up of the Soviet Union, Kashin said, there was no known sharing agreement between Beijing and Moscow outside of a 2010 nuclear reactor agreement.
He said China may have made progress via adaptations of Russian designs and through other sources, including espionage, but it is unlikely they have the newest-generation Russian systems.
"China is not an adversary of Russia in the naval field," Kashin said. "It is not creating difficulties for us, it is creating problems for the U.S."
(Reporting By Greg Torode; additional reporting by Guy Faulconbridge in Moscow; Editing by Gerry Doyle)
By Greg Torode
HONG KONG (Reuters) - A submarine arms race is intensifying as China embarks on production of a new generation of nuclear-armed submarines that for the first time are expected to pose a challenge to growing U.S. and allied efforts to track them.
Analysts and regional defense attaches say evidence is mounting that China is on track to have its Type 096 ballistic missile submarine operational before the end of the decade, with breakthroughs in its quietness aided in part by Russian technology.
Research discussed at a conference in May at the U.S. Naval War College and published in August by the college's China Maritime Studies Institute predicts the new vessels will be far harder to keep tabs on. That conclusion is credible, according to seven analysts and three Asia-based military attaches.
"The Type 096s are going to be a nightmare," said retired submariner and naval technical intelligence analyst Christopher Carlson, one of the researchers. "They are going to be very, very hard to detect."
The discreet effort to track China's nuclear-powered and -armed ballistic missile submarines, known as SSBNs, is one of the core drivers of increased deployments and contingency planning by the U.S. Navy and other militaries across the Indo-Pacific region. That drive is expected to intensify when Type 096s enter service.
The Chinese navy is routinely staging fully armed nuclear deterrence patrols with its older Type 094 boats out of Hainan Island in the South China Sea, the Pentagon said in November, much like patrols operated for years by the United States, Britain, Russia and France.
But the Type 094s, which carry China's most advanced submarine-launched JL-3 missile, are considered relatively noisy - a major handicap for military submarines.
The paper notes that the Type 096 submarine will compare to state-of-the-art Russian submarines in terms of stealth, sensors and weapons. It said that jump in capabilities would have "profound" implications for the U.S. and its Indo-Pacific allies.
Based partly on Chinese military journals, internal speeches by senior People's Liberation Army (PLA) officers and patent data, the paper charts more than 50 years of the PLA navy's often-glacial nuclear submarine development.
It contains satellite imagery taken in November at China's new Huludao shipyard showing pressure hull sections for a large submarine being worked up. That puts construction on schedule to have the boats operational by 2030, the timeline stated in the Pentagon's annual reports on China's military.
But the Type 094s, which carry China's most advanced submarine-launched JL-3 missile, are considered relatively noisy - a major handicap for military submarines.
The paper notes that the Type 096 submarine will compare to state-of-the-art Russian submarines in terms of stealth, sensors and weapons. It said that jump in capabilities would have "profound" implications for the U.S. and its Indo-Pacific allies.
Based partly on Chinese military journals, internal speeches by senior People's Liberation Army (PLA) officers and patent data, the paper charts more than 50 years of the PLA navy's often-glacial nuclear submarine development.
It contains satellite imagery taken in November at China's new Huludao shipyard showing pressure hull sections for a large submarine being worked up. That puts construction on schedule to have the boats operational by 2030, the timeline stated in the Pentagon's annual reports on China's military.
The research also details potential breakthroughs in specific areas, including pump-jet propulsion and internal quieting devices, based on "imitative innovation" of Russian technology.
Neither the Russian nor the Chinese defence ministries responded to Reuters' requests for comment.
The vessel is likely to be significantly larger than the Type 094, allowing it to contain an internal "raft" mounted on complex rubber supports to dampen engine noise and other sounds, similar to Russian designs.
Carlson told Reuters he did not believe China had obtained Russia's "crown jewels" - its very latest technology - but would be producing a submarine stealthy enough to compare to Moscow's Improved Akula boats.
"We have a hard time finding and tracking the Improved Akulas as it is," Carlson said.
Singapore-based defense scholar Collin Koh said the research opened a window on discreet research projects to improve China's SSBNs as well as boosting its anti-submarine warfare capabilities.
"They know they are behind the curve, so they are trying to play catch-up in terms of quieting and propulsion," said Koh, of Singapore's S. Rajaratnam School of International Studies.
Carlson said he believed China's strategists would, like Russia, keep SSBNs within protective "bastions" close to its coasts, utilising recently fortified holdings in the disputed South China Sea.
ECHO OF THE COLD WAR
The prospect of advanced SSBNs will significantly complicate an already intense subsurface surveillance battle.
In an echo of the Cold War-era effort to hunt for Soviet "boomers", the tracking of Chinese submarines is increasingly an international effort, with the Japanese and Indian militaries assisting the United States, Australia and Britain, analysts and military attaches say.
Anti-submarine warfare drills are increasing, as are deployments of sub-hunting P-8 Poseidon aircraft around Southeast Asia and the Indian Ocean.
The United States, Japan, India, South Korea, Australia, Britain and New Zealand operate the advanced plane, which use sonobuoys and other more advanced techniques, such as scanning the ocean surface, to find submarines far below.
The United States is also carrying out the biggest overhaul of its top-secret undersea surveillance network since the 1950s to combat China's growing presence, Reuters reported in September.
The prospect of a quieter Chinese SSBN is driving, in part, the AUKUS deal among Australia, Britain and the U.S., which will see increased deployments of British and U.S. attack submarines to Western Australia. By the 2030s, Australia expects to launch its first nuclear-powered attack submarines with British technology.
"We are at a fascinating point here," said Alexander Neill, a Singapore-based defense analyst. "China is on track with a new generation of submarine ahead of the first AUKUS boats - even if they are at parity in terms of capability, that is highly significant," said Neill, an adjunct fellow at Hawaii's Pacific Forum think-tank.
Even if China's submarine force reaches technological parity, it will need to train aggressively and intensively over the next decade to match AUKUS capabilities, he added.
Vasily Kashin, a Moscow-based Chinese military scholar at HSE University, said it was possible Chinese engineers had made the breakthroughs described in the report.
Although China most likely obtained some key Russian technology in the 1990s after the break up of the Soviet Union, Kashin said, there was no known sharing agreement between Beijing and Moscow outside of a 2010 nuclear reactor agreement.
He said China may have made progress via adaptations of Russian designs and through other sources, including espionage, but it is unlikely they have the newest-generation Russian systems.
"China is not an adversary of Russia in the naval field," Kashin said. "It is not creating difficulties for us, it is creating problems for the U.S."
(Reporting By Greg Torode; additional reporting by Guy Faulconbridge in Moscow; Editing by Gerry Doyle)
Garbage sources, garbage conclusions