09III/09IV (093/094) Nuclear Submarine Thread

[Maikeru]

The assumption here is that it takes 2-3 years to assemble and then launch a SSN.

But we can see that Virginia-class Block 2 boats (which I think are the most comparable to the Type-093B ramp) range from 10-18months, so I think the Type-093B would be down to 12 months now, given the urgency and more modern equipment and facilities.

At 12 months, that implies only 3 slots occupied.
With an 18 month assembly time, that is 4.5 slots occupied.

If they are also building SSBN, especially of the expected size of 096, that's 4 whole SSN slots taken up per SSBN in the Eastern (3 bay) hall.

We've not seen any evidence of work starting inside the newer Southern hall yet, so it may be only the 12 slots in the Eastern hall have been available, and maybe 4 of those taken up by an SSBN.

 

[Blitzo]

The assumption here is that it takes 2-3 years to assemble and then launch a SSN.

But we can see that Virginia-class Block 2 boats (which I think are the most comparable to the Type-093B ramp) range from 10-18months, so I think the Type-093B would be down to 12 months now, given the urgency and more modern equipment and facilities.

At 12 months, that implies only 3 slots occupied.
With an 18 month assembly time, that is 4.5 slots occupied.

I think it is a far safer assumption to believe that it takes 2-3 years for a 09IIIB to be constructed (laid down to launched) at the moment and that most construction slots are being used, than to believe that it takes 12-18 months to be constructed and that they are only using a fraction of construction slots.

We should recall that this is the first time that they've produced SSNs at a large scale in PRC history, whereas the US at the time when they got Virginias spinning up had decades of producing SSNs at relatively large scale and would have had a smoother supply chain at the time.

 

[AndrewS]

If they are also building SSBN, especially of the expected size of 096, that's 4 whole SSN slots taken up per SSBN in the Eastern (3 bay) hall.

We've not seen any evidence of work starting inside the newer Southern hall yet, so it may be only the 12 slots in the Eastern hall have been available, and maybe 4 of those taken up by an SSBN.

That is possible, but that should still leave some spare slots in the 1st construction hall, so why did they build a 2nd construction hall?

I also think it would be a strategic mistake to work on new SSBNs as those resources would be better off building more SSNs for the next few years

 

[AndrewS]

I think it is a far safer assumption to believe that it takes 2-3 years for a 09IIIB to be constructed (laid down to launched) at the moment and that most construction slots are being used, than to believe that it takes 12-18 months to be constructed and that they are only using a fraction of construction slots.

We should recall that this is the first time that they've produced SSNs at a large scale in PRC history, whereas the US at the time when they got Virginias spinning up had decades of producing SSNs at relatively large scale and would have had a smoother supply chain at the time.

Supply chain issues should really only affect the module fabrication stage, rather than module assembly.

The modules are supposed to be largely complete before the pressure hull is sealed during module assembly

 

[Maikeru]

That is possible, but that should still leave some spare slots in the 1st construction hall, so why did they build a 2nd construction hall?

I also think it would be a strategic mistake to work on new SSBNs as those resources would be better off building more SSNs for the next few years

My guess is that the Eastern hall will be used mainly for 096 SSBN and the Southern hall for 095 SSN going forward. Which will enable 3 SSBN and up to 8 SSN able to be constructed concurrently. Bear in mind SSBN will be in the hall for longer. If we assume 3 years per SSBN and 2 yrs per SSN that gives an annual launch rate of 1 x SSBN and 4 x SSN. Which I think is reasonable over the medium term.

 

[Blitzo]

Supply chain issues should really only affect the module fabrication stage, rather than module assembly.

The modules are supposed to be largely complete before the pressure hull is sealed during module assembly

I wasn't referring to subsystem supply alone (though that would effect the pace in which modules are delivered to the assembly hall), but rather the overall supply chain including the competence/speed of assembling the hulls themselves.

I expect that to increase over time, but considering they've only recently started the whole supply chain at scale (inclusive of work in the assembly halls themselves), then the simplest explanation probably should exclude the idea that they are producing hulls at peak Virginia pace.

 

[ACuriousPLAFan]

What's with the obsession of some people here who're always treating the best/most optimistic estimations and projections on China's military production capabilities as if it's already a given/natural fact/reality at present?

 

[ACuriousPLAFan]

My guess is that the Eastern hall will be used mainly for 096 SSBN and the Southern hall for 095 SSN going forward. Which will enable 3 SSBN and up to 8 SSN able to be constructed concurrently. Bear in mind SSBN will be in the hall for longer. If we assume 3 years per SSBN and 2 yrs per SSN that gives an annual launch rate of 1 x SSBN and 4 x SSN. Which I think is reasonable over the medium term.

The individual slots on the southern hall are wider than that of the eastern hall. The southern hall is also longer than the eastern hall, too (~312 meters versus ~288 meters).

Therefore, I think that SSNs would be counstructed in the eastern hall, whereas the SSBNs would be constructed in the southern hall. That would be a total of 20 production slots on the eastern site of Huludao.

But of course, just to be safe and realistic - We would slash that number down to one-quarter of the total, which would mean a theoretical production rate of 5 boats at any given time.

 

[Maikeru]

The rail pairs leading to the South hall are too narrow for SSBN individually and too far apart seperately. If you take the inner rail of each pair for each bay in the East hall, that comes to sufficient width for an SSBN trolley.

We've been through all this before when they started building the South hall. East can build SSN or SSBN, South only SSN.

 

[ACuriousPLAFan]

The rail pairs leading to the South hall are too narrow for SSBN individually and too far apart seperately. If you take the inner rail of each pair for each bay in the East hall, that comes to sufficient width for an SSBN trolley.

We've been through all this before when they started building the South hall. East can build SSN or SSBN, South only SSN.

The individual railings coming out of both the southern and eastern halls are of the same width (~7 meters).

Meanwhile, the width of one pair of railings coming out of the eastern hall is ~25 meters, whereas the width of one pair of railings coming out of the southern hall is ~40 meters.

So the issue is this - If the eastern hall can already arrange the SSNs side-by-side to be this close, then it kinda makes no sense for the southern hall to not just only build SSNs, but also arranging these SSNs to have much greater side-by-side separations than the eastern hall.

On the other hand, the outside pair of railings leading to the launch drydock is only ~13 meters. The inside pair of railings are about the same width as the individual railings coming out of the aforementioned two halls.