09III/09IV (093/094) Nuclear Submarine Thread

[Blitzo]

J-16s and J-10Cs serve a different purpose than J-20 so it's hardly a comparison. J-16s are initially envisioned as a strike fighter to replace JH-7As that evolved into a missile truck that it is today while J-10C is considered a lower end modern multirole fighter to fill up numbers and replace the large amount of 2nd and 3rd generation aircraft. J-20's direct predecessor are the J-11s which stopped production as soon as J-20 was nearing service, ironically both aircraft you mentioned, the J-16 and J-10C both had their maiden flight a few years after J-20.

095 is said and expected to be the direct replacement of the 093 series, not a complement to it.

Actually the relationship between J-20 and J-16 is somewhat similar to 09IIIB and 09V where it counts.
J-16 is not a missile truck strike fighter but rather a high end, heavy multirole fighter.
J-20 of course is somewhat less multirole than J-16 and more oriented towards the air superiority role, but it is still a high end heavy fighter.

More importantly, J-20 was of higher capability but also risk and sophistication than J-16 is, but J-16 was still capable enough that procuring both J-20 and J-16 made sense for the PLAAF while they built up their inventory of more "modern" heavy fighter aircraft.


The same dynamic exists for 09IIIB and 09V, where 09V is of higher capability but also risk and sophistication than 09IIIB, but 09IIIB is still capable enough that procuring both 09V and 09IIIB makes sense while they PLAN builds up their inventory of more "modern" SSNs.


Alternatively, the dynamic is the same between 055 and 052D, where 055 is the equivalent to 09V and 052D is the equivalent to 09IIIB.


Of course, none of these analogies are perfect, but the thrust is that yes, in the long term 09V family will be a wholesale replacement to 09IIIB in production, but in the near term, they will complement each other in production and in service just because 09V is more risky and more sophisticated to 09IIIB to an extent that they will likely want to continue with 09IIIB production (a less risky known quantity which is still capable and relevant for modern uses) alongside 09V production.
Potentially post 2030, 09IIIB production and procurement may cease, and all new SSN production will be 09V family.

 

[AndrewS]

The "next big thing" doesn't necessarily clash with continuing the 093B-class with a 2nd batch, especially when the first or first two 095 SSN(s) can be considered as pilot unit(s) for the class, and that the PLAN desperately needs more hulls in the water in case of any potential contingencies.

Besides, can't blame the PLAN if they've decided to be conservative and/or cautious with what could be the chance for them to firmly close the distance, if not finally catch up with the USN in the underwater domain, particularly with the SSN(X) pretty much stuck until the early-2040s and the latter having to order further blocks of Virginia SSNs.

Moreover, the Guancha Gang also mentioned something about the improved variant of the 095 SSN, i.e. 095A which is currently in development. So there's that.

If a single Type-095 has already been produced, they may want to see how it actually performs, before committing to serial production.

But in the meantime, they have already demonstrated capacity for 2-3 SSNs per year, so they might as well order another batch of Type-093B.

 

[AndrewS]

they also mentioned, two units of Type 095 currently under construction. we have seen 12 inch hull diameter in satellite imagery. so maybe first Boat has already been launch.

So that would be one Type-095 launched at least, with two more under construction?

 

[antiterror13]

We dont quite know whats happening in those halls. I would assume that there is some other construction activity going on beside pushing out two 09IIIB per year. There's also the fact that US officials hinted at renewed Type 09IV construction. I wouldnt be surprised if we see a Type 09IV variant sharing some of the traits of the 09IIIB (notably the pumpjet) appearing in the not too distant future. But speculative.

If it is the case of continue building 094(B), does it mean type 096 is delayed (again) ?

 

[sunnymaxi]

If it is the case of continue building 094(B), does it mean type 096 is delayed (again) ?

nobody knows the exact status of 096.

but most likely first Boat construction has started if we see the latest tender announcement.

 

[sunnymaxi]

So that would be one Type-095 launched at least, with two more under construction?

no idea, but trio mentioned two units are currently under construction and 095A is also under development.

 

[AndrewS]

Do you think it's more likely that Huludao did 2 expansion phases between 2016 through 2023 before discovering they're bottlenecked at 2 subs leaving 12-18 out of 20 bays empty for almost a decade, or do you think it's more likely the classification level of SSNs is at such a level that they actively don't want you to know / made an effort to hide how many were launched, and trying to guess through OSINT or commercial sats is an exercise in futility?

Unless you have already secured the 1st Island Chain, there's no point in building lots of SSNs for use past the 1IC.

So I think they were only planning on 2-3 submarines per year (to 2025), even though they built assembly halls with much more capacity.

(In a wartime emergency situation, it takes time to dredge the sea, create new land, and build an assembly hall at Bohai. But it is "quick" for existing shipyards elsewhere to build submarine modules and ship them to Bohai for assembly)

But it now makes sense to ramp up production, given the 1st Island Chain will look pretty secure within 3-5 years, and the Type-095 design is ready. I expect the Type-095/A will be comparable to the Virginia SSNs in terms of being quieter than ocean background noise levels at decent speeds. At this stage, submarine quieting development has reached its practical plateau, because there's no point in making submarines any quieter. So this is the time for mass-production.

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EDIT. With all the satellites in orbit, I'm guessing there is hourly imagery of Huludao these days. Can't really hide anything anymore.

 

[iewgnem]

Unless you have already secured the 1st Island Chain, there's no point in building lots of SSNs for use past the 1IC.

So I think they were only planning on 2-3 submarines per year (to 2025), even though they built assembly halls with much more capacity.

(In a wartime emergency situation, it takes time to dredge the sea, create new land, and build an assembly hall at Bohai. But it is "quick" for existing shipyards elsewhere to build submarine modules and ship them to Bohai for assembly)

But it now makes sense to ramp up production, given the 1st Island Chain will look pretty secure within 3-5 years, and the Type-095 design is ready. I expect the Type-095/A will be comparable to the Virginia SSNs in terms of being quieter than ocean background noise levels at decent speeds. At this stage, submarine quieting development has reached its practical plateau, because there's no point in making submarines any quieter. So this is the time for mass-production.

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EDIT. With all the satellites in orbit, I'm guessing there is hourly imagery of Huludao these days. Can't really hide anything anymore.

The PLA does its own analysis of if theres a point in building a lot of SSNs, based on their knowledge of actual 1IC ASW situation including underwater infrastructure buildout, and Huludao already demonstrated what their conclusion was. It doesnt make sense to believe Huludao is sitting empty just because OSINT analysis based on publuc knowledge concluded differently.

Huludao expansion was built in 2 to 3 phases with multiple years in between, this doesnt make sense if you're building reserve capacity for 8 years in the future.

The number of satellites in orbit only matters if you can access their data hourly, OSINT cannot, and thats before any attempt at hiding or obsfucating from satellites.

Case in point OSINT only has daytime data, and uses # of times launch dock gets flooded to estimate # of launches, which assumes only one launch per flooding.

All I want to say is the capacity is there and it will take extrodinary evidence to believe PLA isnt using the capacity they built, especially in the underwater field where obfiscucation is mandatary and its practice is well know.

 

[AndrewS]

The PLA does its own analysis of if theres a point in building a lot of SSNs, based on their knowledge of actual 1IC ASW situation including underwater infrastructure buildout, and Huludao already demonstrated what their conclusion was. It doesnt make sense to believe Huludao is sitting empty just because OSINT analysis based on publuc knowledge concluded differently.

Huludao expansion was built in 2 to 3 phases with multiple years in between, this doesnt make sense if you're building reserve capacity for 8 years in the future.

The number of satellites in orbit only matters if you can access their data hourly, OSINT cannot, and thats before any attempt at hiding or obsfucating from satellites.

Case in point OSINT only has daytime data, and uses # of times launch dock gets flooded to estimate # of launches, which assumes only one launch per flooding.

All I want to say is the capacity is there and it will take extrodinary evidence to believe PLA isnt using the capacity they built, especially in the underwater field where obfiscucation is mandatary and its practice is well know.

Take the first assembly hall, which should be able to assemble modules for [8+ SSN and 1 SSBN] per year.
Realistically, that is more than enough capacity for any peacetime requirement for the Chinese Navy.

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So what explains the second assembly hall, which should be able to assemble another 8+ SSN per year?

The only rationale conclusion is to build emergency wartime capacity, which might be required immediately, not for 8 years in the future.

 

[SlothmanAllen]

What have US government reports said about Chinese sub production? If they were pumping out nuclear subs they would probably be making a big deal out of it to get more money for sub construction.