That's good to hear. People here on SDF were saying this about Wiki a few years ago; maybe it's changed.
09III/09IV (093/094) Nuclear Submarine Thread
- Thread starter SinoSoldier
- Start date
Larger numbers do not necessarily mean they are correct.
Chinese Wiki is all fair and well but in the past also has had multiple problematic (ie wrong) claims on hull numbers for various classes (Type 901 being one glaring example). Personally I treat all such claims with extreme prejudice. The figure of six boats on the English Wiki is based on US government reports. Which may be wrong, but less likely so than unsourced figures fathomed from the internet ether.
This is the latest report submitted to Congress on 15 May 2023:
RL33153|China Naval Modernization: Implications for U.S. Navy Capabilities—Background and Issues for Congress
The numbers for 2022 is 6 SSBN and 9 SSN. There is also a nice table with numbers predicted for 2040 - 10 and 16 respectively.
RL33153|China Naval Modernization: Implications for U.S. Navy Capabilities—Background and Issues for Congress
The numbers for 2022 is 6 SSBN and 9 SSN. There is also a nice table with numbers predicted for 2040 - 10 and 16 respectively.
10 SSBNs by 2040s is (at least) still rather realistic, unless Beijing decides to significantly expand China's underwater nuclear deterrence fleet in the coming years with 094Bs and/or 096s.This is the latest report submitted to Congress on 15 May 2023:
RL33153|China Naval Modernization: Implications for U.S. Navy Capabilities—Background and Issues for Congress
The numbers for 2022 is 6 SSBN and 9 SSN. There is also a nice table with numbers predicted for 2040 - 10 and 16 respectively.
But only a mere 16 SSNs by 2040? That sounds like a gross underestimation.
Huludao's massive expansion in the last decade isn't for nothing...
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already six SSBNs currently operational. could be 7
so they will produce only 3/4 SSBN in next 17 years? LMAO
Most probably not all of the current 6 SSBNs will be there by 2040, same applies to SSNs. So the production rate is going to be significantly higher, especially if we consider introduction of a new generation of boats.
Russia plans to have like a dozen Borei. The US also plans to have a dozen Columbia class when those come out. With 16 SLBM cells each. I would expect China to aim for the same amount of SSBNs of Type 094/096 as Russia and the US. Twelve. As for the attack submarines they will likely make dozens of them. At least two dozen. It is quite likely China will make one or two Type 093/095 attack submarines a year when the production has ramped up.
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That sounds a lot when you look at other navies. But Huludao is overkill for such a production rate. I personally expect at least 4 SSNs a year by the late 2020s. China ideally needs ~20 good SSNs before AR. IMO SSBNs would be secondary considering the expansion of road-mobile and silo-based arsenal.
They are in for a rough awakening if they think China will have 16 SSN by 2040. I would expect a minimum of 3-4 launched yearly from 2025-2026 onward or as soon as they got a design they deem good enough.
For reference The U.S launched 37 SSN between 1981 and 1991..