09III/09IV (093/094) Nuclear Submarine Thread

[Iron Man]

Probably because they a) have noisy nuclear submarines b) they have too few submarines to chance it.
The Chinese have spent a considerable amount of resources on their surface fleet, this kind of leaves their boomers with less budget. Their strategy is different from the Soviet Union's strategy for most of its existence.

Still Chinese submarines will eventually improve and they will likely start by using the sea areas in the first island chain as some sort of bastion. Similar to what the Soviets initially did. Also with their most recent SLBMs the submarines got quite a reach even if they don't leave the Chinese coast.

Both UK and France manage to achieve continuous at-sea nuclear deterrence with only 4 SSBNs. This is the reason they both have exactly 4, because this is the minimum number of SSBNs you need in order to have at least one SSBN on patrol at all times with a single crew. The USN achieves a higher patrol rate with its subs because they rotate gold and blue teams onto each sub.

What really matters for a boomer is not how far they can range, but rather the range of their missiles. And it is not like China does not possess ICBMS that can hit the entirety of the globe from it's own home territory (The DF-41). The issue here is mating that missile to a submarine.
China can utilize the bastion strategy operated by the Soviet Union. They can deploy their own ASW forces near the choke points of the 1st island chain to create a safe "wadding pool" for their boomers to operate in. There are conjectures as to why China is pressing for control of the SCS, which is to turn it into a boomer bastion like the Sea of Okhotsk,

China's SSBN bastion strategy is nearly useless with their current 094/JL-2 combo, since from the SCS the JL-2 will only be able to hit the western edge of Alaska and Guam. It cannot reach the CONUS or even Hawaii. A SCS bastion strategy will require a new SSBN and new SLBM, such as "096" and "JL-3". In order to hit Washington DC from the SCS, China will need a 14,000km range JL-3.

 

[Deleted member 13312]

Both UK and France manage to achieve continuous at-sea nuclear deterrence with only 4 SSBNs. This is the reason they both have exactly 4, because this is the minimum number of SSBNs you need in order to have at least one SSBN on patrol at all times with a single crew. The USN achieves a higher patrol rate with its subs because they rotate gold and blue teams onto each sub.


China's SSBN bastion strategy is nearly useless with their current 094/JL-2 combo, since from the SCS the JL-2 will only be able to hit the western edge of Alaska and Guam. It cannot reach the CONUS or even Hawaii. A SCS bastion strategy will require a new SSBN and new SLBM, such as "096" and "JL-3". In order to hit Washington DC from the SCS, China will need a 14,000km range JL-3.

And I did have make mention that they would need to develop a new SLBM for their boomers. Duh............
And trying to create a bastion area after they get the necessary tools to use it will be to late by then.

 

[Iron Man]

And I did have make mention that they would need to develop a new SLBM for their boomers. Duh............
And trying to create a bastion area after they get the necessary tools to use it will be to late by then.

Too late for what? WW3? The return of Elvis? ROFLMAO what do you even mean by "too late"?? Creating the parts of a bastion strategy takes time. To create a bastion in the SCS the PLAN will most likely need to militarize Scarborough Shoal to form a triangular defensive perimeter consisting of the Spratlys, the Paracels, and Scarborough Shoal, and as of now they have done absolutely nothing to it besides restrict access to it via CCG ships. Creating a 096 and a JL-3 also takes time. If both are meant to be together, ideally both are completed at about the same time. The 094 doesn't need a bastion strategy, at least not in the SCS, since its range of targets at that location are extremely limited. More likely it will patrol along the coastline of eastern or northern China under the protection of land-based forces. That way it can at least hold at risk Hawaii and the northwestern tip of Washington (e.g. Seattle).

 

[Deleted member 13312]

Too late for what? WW3? The return of Elvis? ROFLMAO what do you even mean by "too late"?? Creating the parts of a bastion strategy takes time. To create a bastion in the SCS the PLAN will most likely need to militarize Scarborough Shoal to form a triangular defensive perimeter consisting of the Spratlys, the Paracels, and Scarborough Shoal, and as of now they have done absolutely nothing to it besides restrict access to it via CCG ships. Creating a 096 and a JL-3 also takes time. If both are meant to be together, ideally both are completed at about the same time. The 094 doesn't need a bastion strategy, at least not in the SCS, since its range of targets at that location are extremely limited. More likely it will patrol along the coastline of eastern or northern China under the protection of land-based forces. That way it can at least hold at risk Hawaii and the northwestern tip of Washington (e.g. Seattle).

To late in the sense that the US would have taken precautions to preempt and penetrate the bastion strategy. If you would surely have known by now, China is aggressively trying to enforce their claim in the SCS and to rapidly expend their presence in the area. These 2 things goes hand in hand in establishing the grounds for a potential future bastion in the area. And the US too had not let this fact slip under their radar, they are too trying too beef up their presence in the area and engaging nations with various claims to the area as well. The constant presence of CCG is but a single layered block in this endeavor which includes both diplomatic and economic sides.
If China waited till its future boomer and SLBM are completed and in service, that would be a good 10-20 years from now. By that time, the US would have already well influenced and supported the various nations in the are to the point that to establish a bastion area then would be extremely difficult, if not nigh impossible. The US is not going to be so kind as to wait for China to have it's toys ready. There is a reason as to why the SCS dispute had been heated up to this degree as of late.
While the 094 can dispense with the SCS bastion, the cold fact is that the majority of the eastern and northern Chinese coast line is precariously exposed to both US and Japanese submarines. The Yellow Sea's geography while sheltered is both very small and very congested. So placing all of China's boomers in that area is a very risky move. And in a true nuclear exchange, in terms of raw numbers the US might consider the lost of Hawaii and a small chunk of Washington state to be acceptable lost for the complete obliteration of China.
A credible bastion area is a must if China wishes to field a credible sea nuclear deterrence with its current geography.

 

[Iron Man]

To late in the sense that the US would have taken precautions to preempt and penetrate the bastion strategy. If you would surely have known by now, China is aggressively trying to enforce their claim in the SCS and to rapidly expend their presence in the area. These 2 things goes hand in hand in establishing the grounds for a potential future bastion in the area. And the US too had not let this fact slip under their radar, they are too trying too beef up their presence in the area and engaging nations with various claims to the area as well. The constant presence of CCG is but a single layered block in this endeavor which includes both diplomatic and economic sides.
If China waited till its future boomer and SLBM are completed and in service, that would be a good 10-20 years from now. By that time, the US would have already well influenced and supported the various nations in the are to the point that to establish a bastion area then would be extremely difficult, if not nigh impossible. The US is not going to be so kind as to wait for China to have it's toys ready. There is a reason as to why the SCS dispute had been heated up to this degree as of late.
While the 094 can dispense with the SCS bastion, the cold fact is that the majority of the eastern and northern Chinese coast line is precariously exposed to both US and Japanese submarines. The Yellow Sea's geography while sheltered is both very small and very congested. So placing all of China's boomers in that area is a very risky move. And in a true nuclear exchange, in terms of raw numbers the US might consider the lost of Hawaii and a small chunk of Washington state to be acceptable lost for the complete obliteration of China.
A credible bastion area is a must if China wishes to field a credible sea nuclear deterrence with its current geography.

I have no idea why you think the US is somehow currently unaware of China's potential bastion strategy in the SCS such that China could ever somehow surprise them with a completed bastion strategy before they've had a chance to formulate a response. I have no idea by what means you think the US will have somehow "influenced and supported the various nations in the area" to block a potential Chinese bastion strategy in the SCS. Are they going to lodge a protest at the UN? Are they going to send some fishing ships to the area? What exactly do you think any of the ASEAN countries can do to block the completion of a Chinese SCS bastion strategy? ASEAN can do nothing and the US can get them to do nothing. They are irrelevant to a Chinese SCS SSBN bastion strategy. Even if the US goes as far as to finance the other countries' militarization of the Spratlys, that is only the southern end of the triangle, easily destroyed by far superior PLAAF, PLAN, and PLANAF forces at the onset of war, should those bases be used against China. In other words, the US will be relying on itself to compromise China's strategy, if it even can. The fact is that if we are talking about it on a public forum, the US is already well ahead of us in planning for this eventuality, so talking about this being "too late" tomorrow or twenty years from tomorrow is irrelevant. It is already too late from a US military perspective since they are no doubt already planning.

 

[Totoro]

Not to go off topic, here's a link to some of my musings concerning JL-2 range. https://www.sinodefenceforum.com/ch...uclear-arms-thread.t5881/page-268#post-524963

 

[Iron Man]

Not to go off topic, here's a link to some of my musings concerning JL-2 range. https://www.sinodefenceforum.com/ch...uclear-arms-thread.t5881/page-268#post-524963

Yeah I've been assuming a range of 8,000-8,500km for the JL-2 in my discussion.

 

[Deleted member 13312]

I have no idea why you think the US is somehow currently unaware of China's potential bastion strategy in the SCS such that China could ever somehow surprise them with a completed bastion strategy before they've had a chance to formulate a response.

And I have never insulated that they were. All I have ever stated was that the US is aware of the potential of the SCS. Or are you again assuming it here ?

I have no idea by what means you think the US will have somehow "influenced and supported the various nations in the area" to block a potential Chinese bastion strategy in the SCS. Are they going to lodge a protest at the UN? Are they going to send some fishing ships to the area? What exactly do you think any of the ASEAN countries can do to block the completion of a Chinese SCS bastion strategy? ASEAN can do nothing and the US can get them to do nothing. They are irrelevant to a Chinese SCS SSBN bastion strategy. Even if the US goes as far as to finance the other countries' militarization of the Spratlys, that is only the southern end of the triangle, easily destroyed by far superior PLAAF, PLAN, and PLANAF forces at the onset of war, should those bases be used against China. In other words, the US will be relying on itself to compromise China's strategy, if it even can. The fact is that if we are talking about it on a public forum, the US is already well ahead of us in planning for this eventuality, so talking about this being "too late" tomorrow or twenty years from tomorrow is irrelevant. It is already too late from a US military perspective since they are no doubt already planning.

By being more aggressive in pushing their various claims in the area. If the nations really wanted to, they can too engage in grey area tactics like what China is doing at the moment. By hostile interactions between coast guard ships and more serious land reclamation and even the installation of dual use military/civilian infrastructure. Everything is up for grabs in this matters. And these infrastructures like that of China's, once in place would be impossible to be removed saved by direct military actions which will be the last thing anyone wants. Any survellience infrastructure of any kind by another state (or worse the US) would permanently compromise the SCS as a viable bastion area, it is not to great by any stretch of the imagination for the Philipines to allow the US to establish a SONUS outpost on one of the Islands with hydrophones laid across the entire SCS ocean bed and for Vietnam to acquire the same capabilities to cover the northern part of the SCS. And the range of such hydrophones are considerable, range for hundred of kilometers, so even a small array of them can render a huge swath of the area a danger zone of being detected.
And again I would caution against the assumption that China can challenge every single ASEAN state in the area simultaneously as well as the US. As Vietnam had shown, if they get serious they can field a credible force that when acting in conjunction with both other ASEAN states and the US can pose a significant challenge to China. And leaving the Philippines out of this equation, most of the nations has the economy to support such a military buildup and even China cannot be expected to coerce all of the states simultaneously via economic means, they have seen how well that when with Trump's trade wars.
Right now China has to consider itself extremely luck that Trump's current administration is exceptional in bungling up its foreign policy goals which in turn creates significant confusion among the ASEAN states. But that situation will not last forever. Sooner or later this administration or the next is gonna clear it's head up.
Too say that the US might be too late to intercept this eventuality is no excuse for China to rest on it's laurels either. And right now they are going full ahead, but by no means they should let up any steam in the future. Diplomatically, China has yet to score a final victory among the ASEAN states.

 

[ougoah]

And I have never insulated that they were. All I have ever stated was that the US is aware of the potential of the SCS. Or are you again assuming it here ?

By being more aggressive in pushing their various claims in the area. If the nations really wanted to, they can too engage in grey area tactics like what China is doing at the moment. By hostile interactions between coast guard ships and more serious land reclamation and even the installation of dual use military/civilian infrastructure. Everything is up for grabs in this matters. And these infrastructures like that of China's, once in place would be impossible to be removed saved by direct military actions which will be the last thing anyone wants. Any survellience infrastructure of any kind by another state (or worse the US) would permanently compromise the SCS as a viable bastion area, it is not to great by any stretch of the imagination for the Philipines to allow the US to establish a SONUS outpost on one of the Islands with hydrophones laid across the entire SCS ocean bed and for Vietnam to acquire the same capabilities to cover the northern part of the SCS. And the range of such hydrophones are considerable, range for hundred of kilometers, so even a small array of them can render a huge swath of the area a danger zone of being detected.
And again I would caution against the assumption that China can challenge every single ASEAN state in the area simultaneously as well as the US. As Vietnam had shown, if they get serious they can field a credible force that when acting in conjunction with both other ASEAN states and the US can pose a significant challenge to China. And leaving the Philippines out of this equation, most of the nations has the economy to support such a military buildup and even China cannot be expected to coerce all of the states simultaneously via economic means, they have seen how well that when with Trump's trade wars.
Right now China has to consider itself extremely luck that Trump's current administration is exceptional in bungling up its foreign policy goals which in turn creates significant confusion among the ASEAN states. But that situation will not last forever. Sooner or later this administration or the next is gonna clear it's head up.
Too say that the US might be too late to intercept this eventuality is no excuse for China to rest on it's laurels either. And right now they are going full ahead, but by no means they should let up any steam in the future. Diplomatically, China has yet to score a final victory among the ASEAN states.

You are unfairly calling the group of nations that are stakeholders in this whole SCS debacle ASEAN nations. It is only Vietnam and Philippines that have a strong issue with China's SCS claim. That is hardly all of ASEAN. On top of this, these nations do not have any credible claim. At best for them, the seas ought to remain independent of any nation. The problem China has is that these nations are actually making a claim for sovereignty rather than leaving them as international waters. A move that can be considered a response to China's own aggressive claims of sovereignty. Let's not forget that Vietnam started pouring concrete to build structures first so they can be entitled to the 12NM of sovereignty rule.

On topic, I know you did mentioned the US aligned with Vietnam and Philippines, but neither of these two ASEAN nations could hope to compete militarily with China, independent of the US (warfare has evolved to become so digitally entrenched that the human wave & guerrilla tactics have zero place on the modern battlefield - Vietnam and Philippines add no real value to US military). If they wanted to pursue an arms race, at this moment in history, China would be able to run them both broke before they fielded any imported Russian/NATO weapons. So the real discussion is between PLAN and USN. SSBNs are almost purely deterrence platforms. PLAN boomers are currently small in numbers and noisy enough for PRC to not risk any dependency on these subs. JL-1/2, 092/094 are more or less exercises in development so that the sub building industry can one day build effective enough boomers for PRC's nuclear deterrence. Newer developments will probably include improvements to reactors, shaftless EM drive, and hypersonic weapons. Today's nuclear deterrence rests almost purely on land-based ICBMs.

 

[Iron Man]

And I have never insulated that they were. All I have ever stated was that the US is aware of the potential of the SCS. Or are you again assuming it here ?

By being more aggressive in pushing their various claims in the area. If the nations really wanted to, they can too engage in grey area tactics like what China is doing at the moment. By hostile interactions between coast guard ships and more serious land reclamation and even the installation of dual use military/civilian infrastructure. Everything is up for grabs in this matters. And these infrastructures like that of China's, once in place would be impossible to be removed saved by direct military actions which will be the last thing anyone wants. Any survellience infrastructure of any kind by another state (or worse the US) would permanently compromise the SCS as a viable bastion area, it is not to great by any stretch of the imagination for the Philipines to allow the US to establish a SONUS outpost on one of the Islands with hydrophones laid across the entire SCS ocean bed and for Vietnam to acquire the same capabilities to cover the northern part of the SCS. And the range of such hydrophones are considerable, range for hundred of kilometers, so even a small array of them can render a huge swath of the area a danger zone of being detected.
And again I would caution against the assumption that China can challenge every single ASEAN state in the area simultaneously as well as the US. As Vietnam had shown, if they get serious they can field a credible force that when acting in conjunction with both other ASEAN states and the US can pose a significant challenge to China. And leaving the Philippines out of this equation, most of the nations has the economy to support such a military buildup and even China cannot be expected to coerce all of the states simultaneously via economic means, they have seen how well that when with Trump's trade wars.
Right now China has to consider itself extremely luck that Trump's current administration is exceptional in bungling up its foreign policy goals which in turn creates significant confusion among the ASEAN states. But that situation will not last forever. Sooner or later this administration or the next is gonna clear it's head up.
Too say that the US might be too late to intercept this eventuality is no excuse for China to rest on it's laurels either. And right now they are going full ahead, but by no means they should let up any steam in the future. Diplomatically, China has yet to score a final victory among the ASEAN states.

In addition to what ougoah said, the militarization of the Spratlys by any of the ASEAN nations is easily nullified even by what means China possesses now, to speak nothing of what it will possess in the next 10 to 20 years. Hydrophone arrays can be cut and the means to defend against such attacks are non-existent amongst any of the SE nations with skin in the game. They are almost a non-issue in the sovereignty claims in the Spratlys, as can already be currently seen; China has run roughshod over the entirety of the Spratlys with new bases all over the place and hardly anything more than feeble protests coming from the other claimant nations. In other words, as of now the SCS physically belongs to China. Even all of ASEAN ganging up together against China would achieve nothing. The only uncertainty in the matter is whether the US will eventually contest this actively, and to what degree and under what circumstances.