What PLA watchers are suggesting is the PLAN is ending the 4000t tier and staying with just the 6000t and 10000t tiers. Pop3 has no idea if that's actually happening but he notes it's been 6 years since project start and the 054B still hasn't appeared. The 054's first steelcutting occurred only 2 years after project start; the 054A, 1 year; the 075, 4-5 years; 055, 4 years; 002, 5 years.
All these ships took less than 5 years to get from project start to steelcutting while the 054B has taken 6 years with still no sign of steelcutting.
Pop3 offers 4 potential reasons:
- Funds are insufficient. This was a relatively common occurrence thirty years ago but practically impossible today.
- Technological bottleneck. Possibility exists are doesn't seem likely given the PLAN's systemic competence and ample experience with R&D.
- The prolonging of 054A production means the 054B's technological advantage over the 054A, as originally envisioned, has diminished. With the latest 054As' being equipped with many of the PLAN's latest systems originally meant for the 054B, the necessity for 054B reduces.
- A recent reevaluation of the PLAN's desired composition could have concluded the 4000t segment was superfluous. The need for 4000t vessels in the PLAN lineup was decided by an assessment conducted over ten years ago and priorities could have changed since then.
I have a big doubt on 3.
054A's main and secondary radar systems can be regarded as near obsolete from the get go, generations behind Type 055. These radar systems are also well behind that of every contemporary modern frigate except for the Admiral Grigorovich and the Talwar class. Likewise, the radar systems for the Type 054B are conceivably a generation or two ahead of the 054A, if they are going AESA. In fact, the radar systems for the Type 054B might be versions or derived from systems off the Type 055, minus the Type 346.
It maybe that the Type 055 is also acting as the proving platform for a whole new generation of technologies, before these technologies, namely on radar, ESM and ECM, can be seen in other ships, namely 052E and 054B.
Also, go back to my previous post, there is the question of the SAM development for the frigate. I am not sure if the current HQ-16 is something you want to go forward with the new generation of frigate. You are faced with the choice of using the HQ-9, using both HQ-9 and HQ-16, developing new versions of the HQ-9 and HQ-16, and entirely new type of naval SAMs.
My other theory about a 054B delay, assuming there is any delay at all, is the development of the IEP system for it. That also represents a huge technology leap from the 054A. Its difficult to see the 054B just a B version of the 054A, when more and more, its not just an entirely new ship, but a whole generation forward.
No. 4 is something to consider, but then Lethe has already given the best argument against those. I am on the side that there is still this need for numbers, now more than ever, and this need for numbers isn't going to go away for the next ten years or more, given the size of the USN and its allied navies.
Given the USN is chasing its own new frigate program, the PLAN seems to like aping the USN, the USN's frigate program is going to get its due attention with the PLAN. We have also seen the British, the French and Italian Navies now working on "intermediate" frigates, and that for me tells that the PLAN was not wrong for having its own intermediate frigate in the first place. The Type 054A has proven itself to be the PLAN's best workhorse, unmatched by far --- over and over again with its numerous deployments and missions. This is not something to easily give up on.
It can be that the need for a frigate is still there, but the actual frigate design can be re-evaluated in response to contemporaries and that the bar has been raised for a "hit" frigate that can be a worthy successor to the 054A.
As for the 'prolonging' of the 054A production, that can be explained another way --- the design is very successful, exceeded its expectations, and has more than proven itself. It might be hard to recreate the ship's price/performance, so yes, the bar has been raised higher for its successor.