I think people focus too much on initial conditions and forget how current conditions came about.
US didn't have their global bases until after WW2, its their ability to project power globally that gave them those bases, not vice versa.
There are two future scenarios: conflict and no conflict.
- If there are no conflict, civilian port visit agreements combined with merchant marine and at sea replenishment are enough to sustain force presence globally, i.e. it'll let China lose to Houthis type force and bomb civilians anywhere around the world, this is the "global empire" China does not aspire to be.
- If there is conflict with the US, which is the only scenario that actually matters, having global power projection means having the ability to take bases from the US globally, the same way US took them from Japan and Germany, not all at once, but incrementally, with the naval, merchant marine, shipbuilding and industrial base to sustain and resupply it
China doesn't need to have a global empire with bases in every country, but China very much need, and is objectively building a force that can actually project power globally when needed.