Miscellaneous News

9dashline

Captain
Registered Member
Good, my calls are printing money. Always knew that the FED would chicken out lol
Keep kicking the can down the road...like a drug addict, "just one more time, a larger sniff to make it count"

Its now a race against time, US trying to do one last giant harvest to grab what it can and rape the world for all its worth, vs China and the rest of the world getting off this dollar implosion fast enough

I give it another 18 months at the most

Tik Tok its soon Deagel time
 

pmc

Colonel
Registered Member
However, with China increasingly becoming the only high-tech exporter to China, we could see Russia getting in a similar position in >5-10 years. So that's something to keep in mind here. Not that China would use it as a threat, but merely the possibility of it would signal that Russia has taken a junior partner role because Russian policy makers would be double and triple worried to not be against China.
thats where you making an error. China total exports to Russia are about $76b. and those $76b still has western IP inside. just look at vehicles in Haval lineup they have BorgWarner and other vehicles have tech like Qualcom. so $76b is generous number of total. let say in 5 years it become $150b. Is $150b big number in overall context when inflation is so rampant. certainly not. At that point Russian own lithium mines and battery plants will be at peak production. so more competition to Chinese vehicles and that assume that after 5 years outside warranty Chinese vehicles have same resale value as used Japanese or Korean made. you cannot judge high tech exports momentarily but look over a period of time how it create reputation. Russia has own development Programmes of industrial robots, base stations, Lithography, display screen technology, consumer electronics. so over period of time there is even less opportunity.
Russia is trying to get students from countries with history in scientific engineering fields to make things more diverse in research labs.

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Technored founder Artem Lukin noted: “We are not suppliers of industrial robots from abroad. From the very beginning, we were focused on the development of completely finished solutions for industrial production. Nobody needs a robot for its own sake. They need a system to solve a specific problem. And we offer just such turnkey solutions. At a low price and with fast implementation.”
A year ago, the Russian market for welding wire was completely controlled by two companies: Czech ESAB and American Lincoln Electric. Now the sector is independent. Severstal plans to produce metallurgical blanks from alloys, and Technored will ensure their conversion into a finished product

think deeper about Mideast. why such news need to be published there. I am sure Mideast is enjoying this new Cold war.

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Moscow records the highest marriage rate in more than 100 years​

 

taxiya

Brigadier
Registered Member
He's looking at the situation without the rose colored glasses and purely fro a "REALIST IR PERSPECTIVE" and that's ought to be allowed for anyone here to hold, have, and think of this excellent partnership between China and Russia.
Let me put it this way, a man and a woman is getting married, nobody knows what will happen 5 or 10 years down the road. Then comes a "wise" person telling everyone in the ceremony "be careful and watchful of each other", "you are going to follow his/her domination". It this a wisdom or a curse? Is anyone so naive to need this "wisdom"?

I also don't want China to become US 2.0 which essentially "out with the old bastard only to be replaced with another bastard even worst than the last one" situation. But let's not be too naive and so certain that future leaders in China will not succumb or tempted in copying some aspects of American foreign policy when China becomes unquestionably more powerful in all aspects in say 50 years. For now, China and GenSec Xi will not act like a bully or will even attempt to lord over Russia because that simply would not work and is counterproductive to China's vision for a more equitable multipolar world.
Let's just hope that CCP not degrade itself to be just another old imperial ruler by not forgetting what CCP was found for, in Xi's word "不忘初心".
 
Last edited:

MarKoz81

Junior Member
Registered Member
You might want to elaborate on your logic here because I don't see it and I doubt I'm alone. The message could be interpreted in any number of ways, but by far the most natural is that China supports Putin's leadership of Russia and will stand beside him if the West tries any regime change shenanigans.

The part in bold is the very definition of vassalage put in less explicit terms.

What I used was part of European (continental) cultural legacy and the way you approach it suggests that your understanding of it comes from American understanding of it (not implying your nationality, just where you acquire knowledge) which is derived from English understanding of it. It's like getting your knowledge of China from a Japanese person who lived on Taiwan. Not a good idea.

In American parlance "vassal" is a derogatory term. I used it as a technical term describing something very important about the new relationship between China and Russia.

There are four fundamental types of relationships in politics:
  • an adversary
  • a neutral party
  • an ally
  • a vassal
The difference between an ally and a vassal lies in the relationship between the parties.

Allies choose to make a common cause because of common interest and that common cause may or may not be supported by mutually beneficial exchange of other goods or services. In an alliance the mutual loyalty is voluntary.

A vassal is pledging his loyalty and this loyalty is confirmed by a grant of fief by a liege which may or may be a sovereign - a person invested by the church with the divine right to rule over a land. If the vassal refused to fulfill his oath to his liege lord he would through this act forfeit his fief and the people who lived in his fiefdom as well as his own vassals (vassals could give the land to their vassals) could turn against him. Similarly the liege lord made an oath to protect and support his vassal in need. Vassalage was a mutual relationship that was asymmetric in the single aspect of the liege lord granting something to the vassal as foundation of their relationship. An ally is assumed to come on his own with his own means. Vassalage is therefore a closer and binding relationship.

In other words if an ally betrays you he's just a bad ally and a turncoat. If a vassal betrays you he commits treason.

This has two consequences - the liege lord is justified in punishing the vassal or removing him from power and the people who are sworn to the vassal have the right to abandon him. This is important because while in European law there was a rule of "the vassal of my vassal is not my vassal" there is an implicit understanding that if a vassal was given his fief by a liege lord and then that fief was given in fief to his vassals then the breaking of oath harms the duty of the lege lord to protect his vassals because if the vassal renounced his oath then the fief that he has passed on became invalid.

This means that Putin recognized that his position was vulnerable and that he needed external support. He turned to Xi and aggreed to become a vassal which means that his position as the leader of Russia is backed by China's support of his person. This gives Putin two benefits - he can stop worrying about being eliminated by his underlings while he is in power because he is now the guarantor of China's favour and he can stop worrying about his safety in retirement. His security will be guaranteed by China as well.

In other words Putin was about to lose leadership of Russia as consequence of the war. He agreed to be a vassal of China and that secured his leadership of Russia under new conditions. He used to be sovereign now he is a vassal. Whoever comes after him may attempt to restore the sovereignty of Russia but it is more likely that China will ensure that the successor will continue the vassalage and if anyone tried to restore the sovereignty China will support anyone who defends the vassalage.

Why is it historic?

Because since creation of "Russia" that is the Russian Empire in 1721 following the treaty of Nystad every single European power had become at some point a vassal to another power and that includes the US which began as English dependencies. All, except Russia which since it's emergence from under Mongol rule under Ivan III (then Grand Duke of Moscow) never lost sovereignty of its lands.

It is a historic moment because the last time Russia or its predecessor state was not a sovereign power was 1480. Moscow has not been a vassal since before discovery of Americas by Europeans.

It is also historic because Russia has always maintained a sense of superiority toward Asian peoples and despised the notion of Tatar Yoke which it used to orchestrate genocide and repressions of indigenous people's in Siberia. Losing its sovereignty not to European supremacists like Germany in the past but to an Asian power that it deemed inferior to itself is historical irony.

Your writing is often very insightful, but in this case I think your antipathy toward Russia is leading you toward strained interpretations and seeing things that aren't there.

My comments on Russia are objective and neutral. What confuses you is your personal point of view which is neither.

When I comment on events I do it with proper caution and deliberation. Sometimes I use emphatic form for better effect but the form is always a deliberate choice not dictated by my emotional state. It's to prevent the typically long comment from becoming too boring. When I want to express my personal feelings I do so openly.

Like this:

In my personal opinion becoming China's vassal is more than Russia deserves. Although I do think that the people of Russia, especially the ethnic minorities, deserve better living conditions I don't think it will happen nearly to the extent that it could be achieved under a more pro-social regime that Russia is incapable of forming currently. Russian state is too degenerate and corrupt to be able to reform itself under the current conditions even if given a decade or two. The failure in Ukraine is the necessary consequence of the regime's nature. It is also burdened by historical legacy of one of the most backwards and repressive major regimes in recent history. A truly contemptible entity that doesn't deserve the respect it demands.

China will therefore lend Russia a lifeline that it shouldn't get but there are no "good" guys in the game of politics. It's a game of self-interest played by thugs who managed to convince their followers that while they may not be the best they are good enough while the other guy is just the worst thing in the world so that the followers agree to do the dirty work for the thugs who will reap the rewards. That too is a story as old as time and to pretend otherwise is disingenuous. Societal progress is a work of accident and it is rather disparaging when you realise just how accidental majority of societal (not: technological) advances truly are.

Stanislaw Lem who is Poland's most famous sci-fi writer once said that humans are apes that build razors to slash the other apes' throats. Generation after generation the work goes on and while the razors get stronger and sharper the apes stay the same.


Now that you have a primer for some of my personal opinion you can use it to navigate the rest of my comments.
 

FairAndUnbiased

Brigadier
Registered Member
The part in bold is the very definition of vassalage put in less explicit terms.

What I used was part of European (continental) cultural legacy and the way you approach it suggests that your understanding of it comes from American understanding of it (not implying your nationality, just where you acquire knowledge) which is derived from English understanding of it. It's like getting your knowledge of China from a Japanese person who lived on Taiwan. Not a good idea.

In American parlance "vassal" is a derogatory term. I used it as a technical term describing something very important about the new relationship between China and Russia.

There are four fundamental types of relationships in politics:
  • an adversary
  • a neutral party
  • an ally
  • a vassal
The difference between an ally and a vassal lies in the relationship between the parties.

Allies choose to make a common cause because of common interest and that common cause may or may not be supported by mutually beneficial exchange of other goods or services. In an alliance the mutual loyalty is voluntary.

A vassal is pledging his loyalty and this loyalty is confirmed by a grant of fief by a liege which may or may be a sovereign - a person invested by the church with the divine right to rule over a land. If the vassal refused to fulfill his oath to his liege lord he would through this act forfeit his fief and the people who lived in his fiefdom as well as his own vassals (vassals could give the land to their vassals) could turn against him. Similarly the liege lord made an oath to protect and support his vassal in need. Vassalage was a mutual relationship that was asymmetric in the single aspect of the liege lord granting something to the vassal as foundation of their relationship. An ally is assumed to come on his own with his own means. Vassalage is therefore a closer and binding relationship.

In other words if an ally betrays you he's just a bad ally and a turncoat. If a vassal betrays you he commits treason.

This has two consequences - the liege lord is justified in punishing the vassal or removing him from power and the people who are sworn to the vassal have the right to abandon him. This is important because while in European law there was a rule of "the vassal of my vassal is not my vassal" there is an implicit understanding that if a vassal was given his fief by a liege lord and then that fief was given in fief to his vassals then the breaking of oath harms the duty of the lege lord to protect his vassals because if the vassal renounced his oath then the fief that he has passed on became invalid.

This means that Putin recognized that his position was vulnerable and that he needed external support. He turned to Xi and aggreed to become a vassal which means that his position as the leader of Russia is backed by China's support of his person. This gives Putin two benefits - he can stop worrying about being eliminated by his underlings while he is in power because he is now the guarantor of China's favour and he can stop worrying about his safety in retirement. His security will be guaranteed by China as well.

In other words Putin was about to lose leadership of Russia as consequence of the war. He agreed to be a vassal of China and that secured his leadership of Russia under new conditions. He used to be sovereign now he is a vassal. Whoever comes after him may attempt to restore the sovereignty of Russia but it is more likely that China will ensure that the successor will continue the vassalage and if anyone tried to restore the sovereignty China will support anyone who defends the vassalage.

Why is it historic?

Because since creation of "Russia" that is the Russian Empire in 1721 following the treaty of Nystad every single European power had become at some point a vassal to another power and that includes the US which began as English dependencies. All, except Russia which since it's emergence from under Mongol rule under Ivan III (then Grand Duke of Moscow) never lost sovereignty of its lands.

It is a historic moment because the last time Russia or its predecessor state was not a sovereign power was 1480. Moscow has not been a vassal since before discovery of Americas by Europeans.

It is also historic because Russia has always maintained a sense of superiority toward Asian peoples and despised the notion of Tatar Yoke which it used to orchestrate genocide and repressions of indigenous people's in Siberia. Losing its sovereignty not to European supremacists like Germany in the past but to an Asian power that it deemed inferior to itself is historical irony.



My comments on Russia are objective and neutral. What confuses you is your personal point of view which is neither.

When I comment on events I do it with proper caution and deliberation. Sometimes I use emphatic form for better effect but the form is always a deliberate choice not dictated by my emotional state. It's to prevent the typically long comment from becoming too boring. When I want to express my personal feelings I do so openly.

Like this:

In my personal opinion becoming China's vassal is more than Russia deserves. Although I do think that the people of Russia, especially the ethnic minorities, deserve better living conditions I don't think it will happen nearly to the extent that it could be achieved under a more pro-social regime that Russia is incapable of forming currently. Russian state is too degenerate and corrupt to be able to reform itself under the current conditions even if given a decade or two. The failure in Ukraine is the necessary consequence of the regime's nature. It is also burdened by historical legacy of one of the most backwards and repressive major regimes in recent history. A truly contemptible entity that doesn't deserve the respect it demands.

China will therefore lend Russia a lifeline that it shouldn't get but there are no "good" guys in the game of politics. It's a game of self-interest played by thugs who managed to convince their followers that while they may not be the best they are good enough while the other guy is just the worst thing in the world so that the followers agree to do the dirty work for the thugs who will reap the rewards. That too is a story as old as time and to pretend otherwise is disingenuous. Societal progress is a work of accident and it is rather disparaging when you realise just how accidental majority of societal (not: technological) advances truly are.

Stanislaw Lem who is Poland's most famous sci-fi writer once said that humans are apes that build razors to slash the other apes' throats. Generation after generation the work goes on and while the razors get stronger and sharper the apes stay the same.


Now that you have a primer for some of my personal opinion you can use it to navigate the rest of my comments.
In Chinese vassal is 藩属国. it is a negative connotation of being lower than 宗主国 (the master country)

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They had control over domestic policy but had to obey direct orders, pay taxes to the empire, fight for the empire and their princes had to bow down to the emperor. Historical vassals like Vietnam, Korea and Myanmar even had to submit succession plans and minister nominations to China.

So unless Putin is paying taxes to China, following direct Chinese orders and bowing to Xi, no he's not a vassal in Chinese terms. His relationship is more like medieval Japan with China, a weaker but fully independent country.
 
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