Chinese Economics Thread

ansy1968

Brigadier
Registered Member
Did it really fail? Afterall, what was even really the goal the Chinese gov had in mind when they decided to do it?
What I know is that coercion work with Australia accepting YUAN as payment for their Iron ore. ;) Now that's a strategic win seen from all angles.:cool:

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Jul 18, 2022 — And it's not the first time mining giant BHP has accepted payment in yuan. In May 2020, it delivered a cargo of Brazilian iron ore to ...
 

Sleepyjam

Junior Member
Registered Member
China's campaign of economic coercion against Australia failed, as it was always going to, for the same reasons that America's many campaigns of economic coercion against Iran, Afghanistan, Cuba, Venezuela, North Korea, etc. routinely fail.
There was never any widespread sanctions on Australia unlike those American Sanctions. China wasn’t even seriously trying, it was more like a warning shot than anything else. Besides it gave China the opportunity to diversify some import sources.
Australia is a lot more anti-China today than it was before Canberra banned Huawei and Beijing retaliated by freezing relations and blocking various imports.

There is no mechanism for the dynamic you suggest. The Liberal party did not lose the election because some vineyard owners were unhappy with their diminished wine exports, though there is some suggestion that the Liberals' relentless anti-China rhetoric cost them some votes amongst Australians of Chinese descent.

Broadly, however, there has been very little push-back against "tough on China" politicians or policies, the only criticism comes from those who believe our anti-China measures haven't gone far enough. People who want Australia to cancel China's lease of the Port of Darwin, for example.

I suspect that Beijing has recognised for a good while now that its "silent treatment" of Australia has not worked. Hence China's new Ambassador to Australia, Xiao Qian, publicly signaled a readiness to turn over a new leaf when he arrived early in 2022. This overture was rejected by the previous Liberal government who refused even to meet him because it would've complicated their "tough on China" election campaign strategy. The point is not that they lost, but that they thought this kind of mindless anti-China posturing was a winning electoral strategy.

As it happened, the Liberals' "tough on China" pitch blew up in their face when the China-Solomon Islands deal came about in the middle of the election campaign, which allowed Labor to go on the offensive portraying the Liberals as presiding over "the greatest failure of Australian foreign policy since 1945". Note the nature of the disagreement here: both parties agree that China's moves in "our Pacific backyard" should be opposed, the dispute is over who is more competent to do so.
Regardless of how much Australia is anti China today the fact remains that Morrison is out of the office due to his failures with regards to China. According to your logic the party in power cant be mindless anti China posturing but they have to be take more anti China measures than Morrison and be able to counter china’s moves in order to remain in power. That’s going to be tough and not a smart way to run a country Lol.
 

Lethe

Captain
Isn’t the celebration a bit immature? There is little details on what “freeze is over” mean.

The "freeze" refers to how Beijing effectively cut off diplomatic relations with Australia. There was no communication at ministerial level. That freeze seems to be over, exemplified by brief meeting between Xi Jinping and (Australia's current Prime Minister) Anthony Albanese in Bali last November.

Now that ministers are again speaking to one another, there is negotiation over the actual substance of disagreements. Australia wants market access restored for a range of export products, China will undoubtedly want something in return. So in a sense you could say that celebrations are premature, but it is a successive sequence of small positive developments beginning with Xiao Qian being appointed as new Chinese ambassador to Australia in early 2022 and signaling Beijing's willingness to turn over a new leaf, an opening that was taken up by the new Labor government that took office May 2022.

It occurs to me that one thing Beijing may want is some commitment from Canberra that we will not impede the export of Chinese vehicles to Australia. Chinese automotive manufacturers have been making significant inroads into the Australian market recently and the sector is high profile enough that there may be some concern of it being caught up in performative "anti-China" politics.
 
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Hadoren

Junior Member
Registered Member
Of course Australia is racist, we all know that.

When the time comes, China must unconventionally bomb Australia in any war, to free the Australian people I love. Once Australia is bombed, there will be widespread unrest in Australia, and the Australian people will revolt against their genocidal, oppressive government and create beautiful communism. The Australian people will be liberated.
 

ansy1968

Brigadier
Registered Member
Of course Australia is racist, we all know that.

When the time comes, China must unconventionally bomb Australia in any war, to free the Australian people I love. Once Australia is bombed, there will be widespread unrest in Australia, and the Australian people will revolt against their genocidal, oppressive government and create beautiful communism. The Australian people will be liberated.
Bro I abhor violence BUT try to see it at Australian POV, we are the only whites in the neighborhood surrounded by sea of Brown and Yellow people...lol so what to do allied yourself with your same race and invite him to your home to feel secure. ;) the Aussies are willing to pay protection money because the land isn't theirs in the first place and in case of an Indonesian invasion they can easily assimilate back to their ancestral home.
 

Godzilla

Junior Member
Registered Member
The "freeze" refers to how Beijing effectively cut off diplomatic relations with Australia. There was no communication at ministerial level. That freeze seems to be over, exemplified by brief meeting between Xi Jinping and (Australia's current Prime Minister) Anthony Albanese in Bali last November.

Now that ministers are again speaking to one another, there is negotiation over the actual substance of disagreements. Australia wants market access restored for a range of export products, China will undoubtedly want something in return. So in a sense you could say that celebrations are premature, but it is a successive sequence of small positive developments beginning with Xiao Qian being appointed as new Chinese ambassador to Australia in early 2022 and signaling Beijing's willingness to turn over a new leaf, an opening that was taken up by the new Labor government that took office May 2022.

It occurs to me that one thing Beijing may want is some commitment from Canberra that we will not impede the export of Chinese vehicles to Australia. Chinese automotive manufacturers have been making significant inroads into the Australian market recently and the sector is high profile enough that there may be some concern of it being caught up in performative "anti-China" politics.
I think you are reading too much into this. Its just resumption of normal service as circumstances have allowed for this. Like it or not, Australia and China might not like each other very much but are each other's ideal partners, especially in Australia's case.
As long as China is strong, the Aussies will never like China, I know cause I am an Aussie. The tall poppy syndrome runs deep, end of the day, we don't even like Americans that much unless we need them on our side. The decent blokes who don't have a chip on their shoulders and are successful businessman recognize the benefits of having a decent relationship with China and have kept the relationship humming along all these time.
It was just this time that Sco Mo was too much of a dog for Beijing to turn a blind eye to and the tic for tac escalated beyond logic. I mean, this fella was basically a mirror image of what he claim Xi to be. Once the nuts got voted out it was easy.
Rupert and his Sky's BS is gonna keep spuing anti-China stuff, but I think everything is gonna be like it was before, uneasy, but still a working relationship to keep the $$$ flowing.
 

Topazchen

Junior Member
Registered Member
I think the only hypothetical objective that could be argued to have been even partly successful is demonstrating to other small countries the costs of ending up on Beijing's shit list. And even that isn't terribly convincing as everyone can see that, despite Beijing's otherwise intense pressure on Australia, nothing happened in relation to our major export, iron ore, for the simple reason that China needs it and there is no ready substitute. And those other small nations can also see that Australia has now weathered the storm of Beijing's fury without making significant concessions.

Indeed, during the period of China's "silent treatment" of Australia, anti-China sentiments and developments have been turbocharged throughout the nation and more moderate and pro-engagement voices silenced. Just this past week we have witnessed the performative removal of Chinese manufactured cameras from government buildings. Canberra's decision to ban Huawei from Australia's telecommunications sector was undoubtedly the product of increasingly hostile attitudes toward China percolating through the Five Eyes apparatus, but there is no doubt that China's response further energised those hostile sentiments, gave them popular support, and effectively neutralised more moderate voices that might otherwise have pushed back against e.g. proposals to construct permanent basing facilities for USAF bombers to be deployed to Australia.



Signals don't mean much, for the simple reason that there's a good chance the current government will be out of power a little over two years from now. It would have to be something actionable in the near-term. I think we can safely rule out that they're going to unban Huawei, roll back deployment of USAF bombers to Australia, cancel the nuclear submarine project, or cut off relations with Taiwan.
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luminary

Senior Member
Registered Member
SCMP hot takes:

China’s durian demand is a godsend for Philippine trade, but at what cost?

China's "durian diplomacy" is doomed to backfire

a putrid smell and thorny rind... represents the identity of Southeast Asia

Thailand monopoly broken, somehow a bad thing


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Actual results:
In less than four months, the Philippines became China’s third approved fresh-durian exporter. A local agriculture official said the industry is expected to generate about US$150 million in income during the first year of trade with China, along with 9,696 direct jobs and 1,126 indirect jobs.
Chinese investments are flocking to these countries to build up more efficient local supply chains, said Huang, the Zhejiang importer. His company invested in packaging factories in Vietnam last year and is planning to expand into the Philippines and Cambodia later this year.
“Durian exports to China would be something big in Vietnam, not because durian is a high-value export fruit, but because it signifies that China’s huge market is lifting its gate open for more imports of Vietnam’s agricultural products through official channels, not via informal border trade,”
 
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