New Energy Vehicles (NEVs) in China

[Gloire_bb]

With all due respect, Xiaomi isn't a very innovative company in smartphones. They are just leverging China's best-in-class supply chain to offer a good product at an attractive price-point. But that's thanks to the nameless manufacturers in the background. If Xiaomi collapsed tomorrow, its market share would be replaced by Oppo, Vivo etc.

Producing attractive (arguably best in the world from the cost/quality point of view) products for affordable prices from subcomponents is also a skill. And xiaomi is nowhere near 'just' an assembler/aggregator.
There is a reason why oppo, vivo and their mom "could have" - but didn't.

 

[Lethe]

Biden, Congress and the American public have become obsessed with anything China and Chinese. It doesn't matter if such arrangement is beneficial to Ford or the US or not. As long as they hear it involved China, they would go crazy. We have seemed it with the Virginia Governor first hand.

Performative anti-China measures are becoming the norm in the United States, particularly in the Republican party. There is a good chance that the subject of the Ford-CATL factory will come up in the Republican primary contest, and if it does the candidates will fall over each other to denounce it and commit to banning it.

The bet being made here is that Ford's corporate influence (both legitimate and otherwise) will outweigh the tide of anti-China sentiment and legislation. I hope CATL doesn't have too much skin in the game, because I personally don't see that as a safe bet.

 

[Overbom]

Given how the US tried to rob TikTok and forced TSMC to setup high end chips plants in the US, I think you might have underestimated the US government's sponsored industry espionage.

Between India and the US, how many Chinese companies were forced out by these governments. How many Chinese companies were forced to either abandon their businesses or sold their businesses as a faction of true worth.

What I see here is Chinese companies don't have plans for worst case scenario when doing business in an extremely hostile environment. They let themselves to be at the mercy of Indian and American government.

Performative anti-China measures are becoming the norm in the United States, particularly in the Republican party. There is a good chance that the subject of the Ford-CATL factory will come up in the Republican primary contest, and if it does the candidates will fall over each other to denounce it and commit to banning it.

The bet being made here is that Ford's corporate influence (both legitimate and otherwise) will outweigh the tide of anti-China sentiment and legislation. I hope CATL doesn't have too much skin in the game, because I personally don't see that as a safe bet.

Stupid factory placement
CATL should had said its either Mexico or nothing. Bluff them

Ford desperately needs extra batteries and it would have to bend if it wanted to get access to them.

 

[sndef888]

Stupid factory placement
CATL should had said its either Mexico or nothing. Bluff them

Ford desperately needs extra batteries and it would have to bend if it wanted to get access to them.

I agree.

Placing factories in the US has huge political risk. Nobody should believe their "free market" or "rule of law" anymore.

The past few years of blatant disregard for international norms, WTO rules, sinophobia etc have shown they are not a reliable place to invest in.

 

[tphuang]

Xiaomi profit in India was 350 million yuan. Indian government frozen 4.8 billion yuan of Xiaomi's asset which means Xiaomi needs 14 years of profit in order to recoup the loss if the fund got confiscated and we don't even talk about the billion of investment Xiaomi has made over the years in India.

Both Huawei and ZTE got screwed over hundreds of millions by India. That's why both companies are not active in India. Shanghai Electric provided coal mine's generators and ended up with hundreds millions of unpaid bills etc. Most Chinese vendors got screwed by Indian merchants so badly that they no longer shipped any products to India unless got paid first.

Great, now they learnt their lesson. Get paid first.

I think your argument is weak. Many companies are too greedy to know better. They think they can outsmart a totally corrupted and hostile system. They are too concern of the potential of Indian market. It is the potential of Indian market that made them to do an irrational decision without taking account to the risks. The profits from India is minuscule compare with the risks.

I think you are completely off topic, since this was never about India. I don't know why you decided to bring India into this.
What is the risk? They got a plant seized. That sucks, but did the Indians become a competitor to them? No. So, except for losing some money along the way, what did they lose?

If that is the case, why don't the US allowed China to produce advance chips and why Taiwan only allowed two to three generations old chips tech to be produced in China.

completely unrelated topics. I don't know why you are bringing chips into this now.

Biden, Congress and the American public have become obsessed with anything China and Chinese. It doesn't matter if such arrangement is beneficial to Ford or the US or not. As long as they hear it involved China, they would go crazy. We have seemed it with the Virginia Governor first hand.

You still have yet to make an argument how this could end up badly for CATL except just voicing Chinese grievances. Which honestly is really tiresome.

Stupid factory placement
CATL should had said its either Mexico or nothing. Bluff them

Ford desperately needs extra batteries and it would have to bend if it wanted to get access to them.

You actually think this is CATL's choice? Ford is one of the big 3. This is its plant. It's politically logical for them to build it in Michigan. It's also political beneficial for democrats to create laws that bring manufacturing jobs to Michigan, which is a major swing state.

I agree.

Placing factories in the US has huge political risk. Nobody should believe their "free market" or "rule of law" anymore.

The past few years of blatant disregard for international norms, WTO rules, sinophobia etc have shown they are not a reliable place to invest in.

This is Ford's plant. Get it straight. Even if it isn't Ford's plant, battery makers are building plants next to where the car plants are in order to make automaker happy. That's how EV production works.

We've managed to turn NEV thread into a Chinese grievance thread. Congratulations everyone.

 

[tphuang]

Back to actual NEV discussion

BYD is teaming up with Santander to provide financing for Mexican customers

https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1625474725496381440

Denza just came out with promo videos for the new N7 and N8. See at the end where those 2 SUVs surrounding D9? Great sight and also shows how large D9 is.

https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1625494419616198656

Finally, more from Denza delivery center and after sale servicing center. Denza is about selling a premium experience.

https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1625504692775313410

 

[KYli]

I think you are completely off topic, since this was never about India. I don't know why you decided to bring India into this.
What is the risk? They got a plant seized. That sucks, but did the Indians become a competitor to them? No. So, except for losing some money along the way, what did they lose?

It isn't about India. It is about Chinese companies not done due diligence and take risks into assessment. You dumped billions of dollar of investment and gave a complete supply chain to India but without making a boatload of money. That is not naive but foolish. Many Japanese, Taiwanese, US and EU companies have at least made billions or hundreds of billions of profit from China.

completely unrelated topics. I don't know why you are bringing chips into this now.

You said that battery technology transfer would not be an issue. But why do the US and Taiwan are so concerned about such tech transfer in almost every high tech sectors and even with old tech.

You still have yet to make an argument how this could end up badly for CATL except just voicing Chinese grievances. Which honestly is really tiresome.

A few Chinese companies have already been forced to sell their asset in the US at a faction of their worth. TikTok was threatened with either a total ban or forced sales at peanut price. What does CATL get out of such arrangement with Ford that is worth the risk? LG and a few other Korean and Japanese battery suppliers have already cornered enough marketshare with their JV with automakers in the US. Whatever CATL and other Chinese battery suppliers can get out of the US market would not be large enough and proftiable enough unless the hostility from the US government ended.

 

[tphuang]

It isn't about India. It is about Chinese companies not done due diligence and take risks into assessment. You dumped billions of dollar of investment and gave a complete supply chain to India but without making a boatload of money. That is not naive but foolish. Many Japanese, Taiwanese, US and EU companies have at least made billions or hundreds of billions of profit from China.

Again, you are off topic. Each case is unique. Don't conflate them.

You said that battery technology transfer would not be an issue. But why do the US and Taiwan are so concerned about such tech transfer in almost every high tech sectors and even with old tech.

If you re concerned about transferring old tech then do a better job of protecting your IP. If it's so easy to steal tech, how come China automakers that worked with JVs never developed the ability to build their own ICE cars?

A few Chinese companies have already been forced to sell their asset in the US at a faction of their worth. TikTok was threatened with either a total ban or forced sales at peanut price. What does CATL get out of such arrangement with Ford that is worth the risk? LG and a few other Korean and Japanese battery suppliers have already cornered enough marketshare with their JV with automakers in the US. Whatever CATL and other Chinese battery suppliers can get out of the US market would not be large enough and proftiable enough unless the hostility from the US government ended.

Again, this is a ford plant. Do you not understand what that means? It's not just about profit. It's about preventing competitors from growing. Chinese companies will do anything they can to keep and expand their dominance in battery space.

There is a topic here which is ford and CATL. If you are capable of making logical argument about why that's a bad deal, then please do so based on facts rather than continuingly air your Chinese grievance.

 

[supercat]

It seems that the effects of Tesla's price-cut is wearing off in China.

https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1625483915694845953

BYD will build a $1.2 billion new battery factory.

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Another cute Kei car from China.

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[KYli]

Again, you are off topic. Each case is unique. Don't conflate them.

That isn't an excuse for not doing risk assessment and due diligent. That can't explain why there are so many high profile of cases that Chinese companies got screwed and lost a ton of money.

If you re concerned about transferring old tech then do a better job of protecting your IP. If it's so easy to steal tech, how come China automakers that worked with JVs never developed the ability to build their own ICE cars?

It is more due to incentives. Most Chinese automakers have made a ton of money and have little incentives to invest in developing their own vehicles. Lastly, ICE cars have much more IP restrictions than EV and batteries.

Again, this is a ford plant. Do you not understand what that means? It's not just about profit. It's about preventing competitors from growing. Chinese companies will do anything they can to keep and expand their dominance in battery space.

There is a topic here which is ford and CATL. If you are capable of making logical argument about why that's a bad deal, then please do so based on facts rather than continuingly air your Chinese grievance.

That's the problem. CATL needs to hand over their know how and the process to Ford in order for Ford to make the batteries. Why not both, if the US companies could make hundreds of billions from China, why shouldn't Chinese companies negotiate a better deal. CATL and many Chinese companies are shortchanged themselves for not getting a better deal. Ford needs CATL as much as CATL needs Ford and probably even more so in many aspects.

You keep spinning that it is about grievances but ignore the fact that things have happened and will happen again unless Chinese companies are more serious about risk assessment and don't shortchange themselves for a bad deal.