I think the same too. My thoughts on how many nukes a country should have drastically decreased after the Ukrainian War too. Looking at the history of the "atomic age" and using common sense, I think these verdicts hold and aren't really controversial.
- Nukes and other WMDs are really effective in deterring direct conventional attacks. No country ever with any nuclear weapons was attacked with the intent to conquer them. This holds even if there is a massive conventional overmatch.
- Nukes are incredibly ineffective in deterring proxy wars. NATO is currently ignoring all of Russia's redlines regarding arms deliveries to Ukraine.
- Tactical nukes are 99% useless. Their use in "small wars" is politically completely unpalatable. Their use against great powers almost guarantees a nuclear apocalypse. I think a country should own 100-200 of them to have a last chance of stopping escalation or enemy conquest before the apocalypse. Other than that, nope. I think their only use is being the last way out before sides start destroying each other's cities, possibly. Their effectiveness against dispersed ground units isn't great either.
- Limited nuclear warfare is a dumb idea. There are no ways the escalation stops after civilians start dying in ten thousands.
- Counterforce and decapacitation strikes are wishful thinking at best. In the early cold war when mobile launchers were almost non-existent and early warning was very unreliable? Maybe. Now? Complete wishful thinking. It is just too easy to have enough mobile launchers. VLO bombers and subs with hypersonic missiles might blow up some silos and non-deployed mobile launchers, but that's about it. And I wouldn't bet on that either considering the stakes.
- You don't really need to destroy a country. Just taking out the metropolitan population would break a country for generations. To add further pain you can take out infrastructure nodes. That would make other smaller cities dysfunctional for years to come. Also would cause many indirect deaths. These don't require many nukes. A few hundred French nukes were enough to deter the Soviets in the cold war. Even if you have 40,000 nukes, you still wouldn't want to eat a few hundred nukes.
So I don't think there are any benefits to having a cold war like arsenal. 300 is too few for many reasons (not enough destruction and ABM tech, primarily). But 5000+ nukes with counterforce measures? That's a waste of money. As I said on another thread, China's nuclear modernization would likely cause an overreaction on the US side, and that's a great thing for China. Spending dozens of billions annually on weapons you will never get to use without getting destroyed is a waste.