New Energy Vehicles (NEVs) in China

[KYli]

if CATL cannot stay ahead of Ford in battery technology, it doesn't deserve to stick around.

It is not about Ford getting CATL technology, It is how easy CATL is willing to give accessed of its technology to others. Western, Japanese, Korean, and Taiwanese companies have made China to jump through hoops to obtain even second rated and old technology.

CATL is giving up its technology too easily which is a problem for many Chinese companies. Companies don't safeguard their technology would pay a heavy price. The problem is the US would try to deny China for even old semiconductor technology but CATL is willing to share its most advance battery technology. It says a lot about Chinese companies being naive and foolish.

 

[Chilled_k6]

It is not about Ford getting CATL technology, It is how easy CATL is willing to give accessed of its technology to others. Western, Japanese, Korean, and Taiwanese companies have made China to jump through hoops to obtain even second rated and old technology.

CATL is giving up its technology too easily which is a problem for many Chinese companies. Companies don't safeguard their technology would pay a heavy price. The problem is the US would try to deny China for even old semiconductor technology but CATL is willing to share its most advance battery technology. It says a lot about Chinese companies being naive and foolish.

I guess it's a difference in philosophy. I think it's better to squeeze out competitors by depriving of market share, and once in the commanding position everyone has no choice but to be entirely dependent and you can start export control strategy ala solar tech. From the readings it seems to be a LFP plant, not clear if it's going to make M3P and doesn't mention sodium ion so tech wise it's not the cutting edge anyway.

 

[henrik]

Vinfast starts laying off US workers.
Vinfast == vanishfast?

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[tphuang]

https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1624400503390994432

https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1624401353068974086

A couple of notes from today.

The sub 100k rmb qin+ dm-i model apparently already got 15k orders. It's not a huge price cut, but the psychology of being under 100k now puts it in the same category as entry level ice cars in china. Should be crushing for certain Japanese brands in china. They really need to bring it to more countries.

We see Myanmar getting more byd cars. Again, the demand is there, but they need to really scale up production and deliveries.

Finally, looks like byd buses will be on Guangzhou streets very soon.

 

[tphuang]

It is not about Ford getting CATL technology, It is how easy CATL is willing to give accessed of its technology to others. Western, Japanese, Korean, and Taiwanese companies have made China to jump through hoops to obtain even second rated and old technology.

CATL is giving up its technology too easily which is a problem for many Chinese companies. Companies don't safeguard their technology would pay a heavy price. The problem is the US would try to deny China for even old semiconductor technology but CATL is willing to share its most advance battery technology. It says a lot about Chinese companies being naive and foolish.

There really isn't any evidence they are sharing their most advanced battery technology. Why don't you let catl figure out what they can share?

How many countries other than china have actually been able to take advantage of shared technology?

If catl isn't willing to share some of its technology, the Koreans and Japanese will do so.

 

[KYli]

There really isn't any evidence they are sharing their most advanced battery technology. Why don't you let catl figure out what they can share?

How many countries other than china have actually been able to take advantage of shared technology?

If catl isn't willing to share some of its technology, the Koreans and Japanese will do so.

If Japanese and Koreans are willing to share their technology, be my guest. But I haven't seemed any joint venture between Japan, Korea, and the US that would allow their counterparts to take a controlling stakes. For most of LG joint venture, LG maintained 51% of the stake. LG has already secured 200 GWh manufacturing capacity in the US through joint venture without sacrificing and sharing its technology.

More importantly, if Chinese companies are so smart, then why the Chinese government is looking to place restrictions on technology transfers. Many Chinese companies are too shortsighted to see the forest for the trees. Again, I am open minded but I don't see the benefits of such a plant for CATL as I don't see CATL to take a significant marketshare from LG in the North American market.

 

[tphuang]

If Japanese and Koreans are willing to share their technology, be my guest. But I haven't seemed any joint venture between Japan, Korea, and the US that would allow their counterparts to take a controlling stakes. For most of LG joint venture, LG maintained 51% of the stake. LG has already secured 200 GWh manufacturing capacity in the US through joint venture without sacrificing and sharing its technology.

More importantly, if Chinese companies are so smart, then why the Chinese government is looking to place restrictions on technology transfers. Many Chinese companies are too shortsighted to see the forest for the trees. Again, I am open minded but I don't see the benefits of such a plant for CATL as I don't see CATL to take a significant marketshare from LG in the North American market.

Other Asian countries don't need to do it, because the IRA does not discriminate against them. There is also no evidence that catl will share it's advanced secrets just because Ford controls most of the jv. It will share whatever it needs to for the project to be successful. Battery technology is moving so fast that whatever they share now will be uncompetitive in a couple of years.

I think you are missing the point here. Ira has limited dollar amount and will be finished at some point. Do you want Chinese batteries to be powering a product to success or loose that entirely to competition? When ira is finished, Chinese battery suppliers need to be ready to take more market share in America.

 

[KYli]

Other Asian countries don't need to do it, because the IRA does not discriminate against them. There is also no evidence that catl will share it's advanced secrets just because Ford controls most of the jv. It will share whatever it needs to for the project to be successful. Battery technology is moving so fast that whatever they share now will be uncompetitive in a couple of years.

I think you are missing the point here. Ira has limited dollar amount and will be finished at some point. Do you want Chinese batteries to be powering a product to success or loose that entirely to competition? When ira is finished, Chinese battery suppliers need to be ready to take more market share in America.

I think people need to recognize and realize that the US wouldn't allow China to dominate the battery marketshare in the US. IRA is just a start to encourage American and other automakers to weed out Chinese batteries. But more actions would follow suit to make sure that no Chinese battery companies can become the main supplier of the US automakers.

If Chinese companies are still delusional enough to think it could capture the US marketshare without Congress or the administration to hamper them that they are not just naive but foolish.

I don't have a problem for Chinese battery companies to open and operate plants in the Mexico as these plants should still be competitive and close proximity that help them to capture marketshare in the North America but have much more control by CATL or other Chinese battery companies. But a plant in the US that CATL doesn't have much control and only provide the necessary technology is just shortsighted even if the tech is not the most advance.

 

[supercat]

It is very difficult to safeguard your trade secrets with such arrangement. Basically, CATL is giving Ford unfettered access to its battery technology. The only benefit is denying your competitors from obtaining more marketshare from you. As the leading batteries maker in the world, CATL needs to think in the long term.

I wonder if Ford has any intention to make batteries in the future and becomes an integrated EV maker like BYD. They probably don't. BTW, the patent for LFP batteries expired in 2022 except in China.

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At this point, who can produce LFP batteries is not the most important thing. Who can produce it most cost-effectively and in the largest scale possible is probably more important. Also, the devil is in detail: who can improve the LFP chemistry, increasing its energy density? Who can improve the battery packing technologies, packing the cells more efficiently and safely? The LFP technology will keep evolving. With Chinese battery makers' experience and R&D prowess, they probably have no problem to stay at the cutting edge of LFP battery technology. On the other hand, by the time other battery makers figure out how to manufacture LFP battery in large scale, China's sodium battery, semi-solid-state battery, or even solid-state battery will probably come online. Remember, China has the world's best physics and chemistry research institutions according to Nature Index, I have no doubt they will produce a lot of state-of-the-art results in battery technologies.

BYD is the number one battery EV brand in China, Israel, and New Zealand in January 2023.

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Subaru will become a Chinese company?

 

[4Runner]

I would apologize here if this info was already posted earlier.

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BYD just dropped a "nuclear bomb" on ICE cars between CNY100K~150K in China, Qing PLUS DM-i 2023 Championship Edition, which squarely targets the core segment of Toyota, Honda, Nissan, GM and VW.



Now I think that is one of the secret weapons with which BYD was claiming to sell 4 million cars in China 2023. If it turns out to be as good as it advertises, it can easily sell 1 million units per year in China alone.