The War in the Ukraine
- Thread starter SampanViking
- Start date
This is not a goodwill gesture this is a defeat. Russians couldn't hold Kherson any longer without supplies that Ukraine pretty much cut off by blowing up all bridges entering and exiting Kherson. Taking out Crimean bridge sealed Kherson's fate for the Russians no longer able to move heavy equipment in the area. Now is Ukraine going to be soft or hit retreating Russian forces? Perception is everything for Ukraine.
the bigger question now how much heavy equipment will receive with that goodwill gesture because those damaged bridges aren’t safe anymore.
Several months ago Micheal Koffman made the remark that the Russian army is most likely opposed to keeping the right bank of the Dniepr and the only reason why they stuck to the defense was political. From that point of view, the withdrawal might actually be a morale boost to the military.
It is far easier to defend a major river crossing than fight an attrition battle on the west bank with limited capability to resupply your troops.
It is far easier to defend a major river crossing than fight an attrition battle on the west bank with limited capability to resupply your troops.
Maybe the Russians will destroy the equipment that cannot be carried across the river?! The withdrawal from Kherson is planned, Surovikin hinted at it long ago.
This is a military defeat. I take Surovikin at his word, the withdrawal from Kherson is to preserve the lives of Russian servicemen. Kherson wasn't captured because it was lightly defended, it fell under Russian control because the civilian authorities defected to Russia.
Russia could have set up defensive positions and fortified Kherson like the Ukrainians did in Mariupol. It would not be easy for the Ukrainians to capture the city - compare it to the Russian capture of Mariupol.
What is needed for Russia to win this war is a comprehensive and strategic bombardment of west Ukraine. I'm sure Russian generals have pointed this out multiple times to Putin, but Putin still refuses to acknowledge this. He seems to be under the impression you can win a war without killing your enemy. Putin has forced the Russian military to fight with both hands tied behind their back, and I don't blame Surovikin for not wanting any part of the defence of the city.
With what? How is Russia going back on the offensive?
Glad to see you admit that the only place where Ukraine can be victorious is in propaganda and perception.
Internet Clausewitzes should have understood by now that casualty minimization is one of Russia's primary war aims; that's the political reality. Holding on to Kherson is untenable without losses the Russian military is not willing to bear. Russia has retreated from Kiev, Kharkov, and a lot of other places, so nihil novi sub sole.
What's important is that Russia is systematically attriting not only Ukraine's capacity to fight, but its capacity to function as a state. No heat, no water, no electricity. Russia is plunging Ukraine into the 18th century and no one can do anything to stop it. Russia can call up reservists and train them unimpeded, and its territory is essentially untouched. That's the fundamental asymmetry Ukrainians and their supporters must confront.
The next phase will be to get these reservists to the front to hold sustainable lines, continue to dismantle Ukraine's electricity grid and other critical infrastructure, and break what remains of Ukraine's air defenses so the VKS can operate freely.
Why do you think Russia is doing the partial mobilisation?
Only like 84k of the suppose 300k people called for mobilisation entered Ukraine to help.
Im sure with extra 200~300k men that are still in training and that will be entering Ukraine. The Russian army will have other options to go on the offensive again.