The War in the Ukraine

Atomicfrog

Major
Registered Member
Hmmmm. No chance of that one happening, if Ukraine did that, all those hundred thousand lives on the side of Ukraine would’ve been completely for nothing and given Russias current gains (of the four territories) and considering what happened in regards to the Nordstrom pipelines and what happen in regards to that Crimean bridge and those assassinations, well Russia would be in no mood to stop and I don’t believe Putin is soft enough to simply give Ukraine anything right now. In fact Russia is simply better off continuing simply because Biden/America can never be trusted. Face it, Biden simply cannot do anything to China as long as the US continues the fight in Ukraine.
Negociations are clearly between to deaf and nothing will change until Ukraine is one thier knee. The funny thing is they talk all the time in the media about Putin being removed from power or being sick ... If he's going, Medvenev is next in line and he's clearly a crazy zealot and the situation will turn full yolo. Clearly don't know what are on their minds.
 

tokenanalyst

Brigadier
Registered Member
I wonder what % of Russian GDP is being spent on war in Ukraine ! Russia doesn’t have luxury to trade with whole world while still waging a war in Ukraine. With the war escalating, troops fighting on both sides are increasing day by day. Ukraine has economic+ military support from whole NATO, while Russia has to wage the war virtually alone. Russia already couldn’t conquer new lands. I wonder what’s the objective of Russia and will Ukraine ever negotitate and let go of lost territory.
All I see is lose-lose situation for Russia.
The Ukrainian situation is getting pretty critical by the day, there is no denying that this offensives is taking a big toll over the country and their supporters, their best option was to go into defensive move a long time ago to defend what they still have instead of wasting everyone resources into minimal returns.

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emblem21

Major
Registered Member
Negociations are clearly between to deaf and nothing will change until Ukraine is one thier knee. The funny thing is they talk all the time in the media about Putin being removed from power or being sick ... If he's going, Medvenev is next in line and he's clearly a crazy zealot and the situation will turn full yolo. Clearly don't know what are on their minds.
Had a dad say the exact same thing to me about the same thing, about how Russia economy is screwed, about how people are turning on Putin about how Putin will be taken from power (all of which are wrong in manners that is simply too stupid for words). Really in where I am at and given that he is a westerner, it’s impossible to sway his mind so I just don’t bother but really, anyone that thinks that Ukraine can take on Russia during winter with energy problems, weapon issues, hundreds or even thousands of soldiers dead a day and with there backers having serious second thoughts due to basically being bleed dry of resources and are about to go cold and not suffer even worse then now, when the Russian leadership have the full backing of the people to basically kick Ukraines ass until they simply are crippled completely is simply in la la land. Even telling the fool that the main stream media is lying to him isn’t something he can ever envision so I guess it’s best to let the truth come though after the winter. Besides it shocks me as to how much these people are dumbed down that sometimes, I really do feeling like doing a physical number on them.
 

reservior dogs

Junior Member
Registered Member
Had a dad say the exact same thing to me about the same thing, about how Russia economy is screwed, about how people are turning on Putin about how Putin will be taken from power (all of which are wrong in manners that is simply too stupid for words). Really in where I am at and given that he is a westerner, it’s impossible to sway his mind so I just don’t bother but really, anyone that thinks that Ukraine can take on Russia during winter with energy problems, weapon issues, hundreds or even thousands of soldiers dead a day and with there backers having serious second thoughts due to basically being bleed dry of resources and are about to go cold and not suffer even worse then now, when the Russian leadership have the full backing of the people to basically kick Ukraines ass until they simply are crippled completely is simply in la la land. Even telling the fool that the main stream media is lying to him isn’t something he can ever envision so I guess it’s best to let the truth come though after the winter. Besides it shocks me as to how much these people are dumbed down that sometimes, I really do feeling like doing a physical number on them.
People will choose to believe what they want to believe. This is also complicated by the Western media that distorts the truth and sometimes outright made shit up based on rumors from the Ukrainian side. The truth will win out in due course time. At the beginning, we are seeing the difference between official Ukrainian and Russian reporting. The Ukrainians will outright fabricate stuff that later turned out not to be true. The Russians might withheld information at times, but I have never seen them lie. Today, anyone without too much bias will toss the official reports to the garbage bin that it belongs, but we still use the official Russian reports as one of the many sources of information.
 

FairAndUnbiased

Brigadier
Registered Member
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This is the second time I've seen Ukraine side say this now. First time was on Twitter by some local Kiev official and I didn't pay much attention.

To completely evacuate Kiev with its 3 million resident would be a big logistic undertaking, not made easier by the very rolling blackout that made it necessary. If the city becomes a ghost town it would allow an offensive from Belarus to have much freer RoE once they reach the city siege stage.
An evacuation of Kiev would absolutely devastate the Ukrainian economy, and since Ukrainian forces use commercial vehicles, it may be difficult to distinguish military transports from commercial ones. Russian ISR isn't good enough to distinguish.
 

baykalov

Senior Member
Registered Member
PM of Ukraine Denys Shmyhal: “Almost 90% of all taxes and fees paid by citizens and businesses next year will be directed by the government to our army and the country’s security. This is the reality of the budget for 2023, which was adopted this week.”

If Ukraine goverment goes with this option there will be nothing left for the social sphere and pensions given a budget deficit of 43%.

Rybar's analysis, I quote:

The Verkhovna Rada has adopted a government budget for 2023. The lion's share of spending will go to ensure the defense and security of the state, as well as maintaining the civil service.

In 2023, there will be 1.3 trillion UAH ($36B) in revenues and twice as much in expenditures. The budget deficit will be covered by foreign aid, which, according to preliminary estimates, will amount to $38 billion.

1.14 trillion hryvnias ($32B) will go to the defense sector. Spending on the army and military operations will basically eat up all the revenues in the budget.

75 billion UAH ($2B) will be spent on road construction and repair under the Big Build program. The project has often been criticized for rampant theft and corruption. It is overseen by President's Office deputy head Kyrylo Timoshenko - so they will not give up this line item.

Ukrainian political parties will receive 519M hryvnias ($14M). Most of it will go to "Servant of the People" deputies. They are the ones who in the majority voted for this version of the state budget.

Poverty line and minimum wage are unchanged: 2.6K hryvnia ($72) and 6.7k hryvnia ($185) per month respectively. Also, all social benefits will be frozen, except for pensions, which in March the government promised to index.

Only 35.5B hryvnia ($1B), is allocated for the needs of the country's reconstruction fund. This paltry expenditure compared to the other items shows that the country's recovery is the Ukrainian authorities's last priority.

The approved draft state budget shows the huge financial dependence of Ukraine on subsidies from Western countries, without which the country cannot cope at all.

At the same time, a significant part of the allocated funds is aimed at maintaining the armed forces and the Ukrainian military-industrial complex in order to prolong the military conflict with Russia, but in no way to help the people of Ukraine.

This shows the current attitude of not only the Ukrainian government to its people, but also the collective West as a whole. And the low funding of social programs and the suspension of payments will hit the population even harder.

For the Ukrainian leadership, social problems are not at all important. With rising prices and inflation, along with the "frozen" government support measures, the country faces a serious social and humanitarian crisis.

Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskiy this week told international donors that Ukraine needed about $55 billion - $38 billion to cover next year's estimated budget deficit, and another $17 billion to start to rebuild critical infrastructure, including schools, housing and energy facilities.

According to IMF and World Bank forecasts 25% of Ukrainians would be living in poverty by year-end and the number could rise to as high as 55% by the end of next year.

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