Miscellaneous News
- Thread starter bd popeye
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solarz
Brigadier
There's more than one consideration at play here. An unprovoked pre-emptive attack on US forces would be disastrous for the Chinese cause. It would rally the American population, sow doubt about the war among the Chinese population, and make it much more difficult for China-friendly nations to support China.
Despite all claims to the contrary, wars are never won by the first salvo. North Korea pushed SK and US forces to the edge of the peninsula before the US came in with reinforcements and turned the tide. Wars are marathons, not sprints.
That said, there's no doubt that gaining the initiative is a huge advantage. However, there are ways to accomplish this without the drawbacks of an unprovoked pre-emptive attack. Again, to take the example of the Korean War, the Chinese PVA was still able to surprise and gain the initiative over SK and US forces by concealing their troop movement and taking advantage of American arrogance.
As Sun Tzu said, wars are won and lost before the first battle is fought. I have no doubt that there will be a lot of maneuvering before any hot conflict erupt over the Taiwan strait, *if* it unfortunately comes to that.
China must me strong enough to defeat America under circumstances maximally favourable to America. The balance of power has to be that obscenely tilted in China's favour else it shouldn't consider war. Under such a scenario, political considerations no longer matter and rapid, decisive strikes are the fastest and surest way to victory.
You don't concede initiative so that history looks on you favourably. You win and write the history.
The Korean War was between two more or less evenly matched sides, not a war where one side has a decisive advantage. This is not the model to use. The model to use (and only loosely), is what the US did to Iraq in the First Gulf War.
Exactly so, which is why China's concern for the next twenty years should be nothing other than building itself and its strength.
Modern wars are increasingly won (or decisively turn the scales towards you side) at the first days
Its called look first, shoot first.
The moment you get targeting information of any kind of target, some minutes later that target is and should be destroyed.
Btw the clown show currently happening between Ukraine and Russia is not a modern war.
solarz
Brigadier
That sounds like the No True Scotsman fallacy.
solarz
Brigadier
Are you saying China needs to be obscenely more powerful that the US before it even considers taking back Taiwan?
Ideally, yes. Taiwan is not going anywhere and there's nothing compelling China to move soon. Peaceful reunification (at least willingly) is dead and buried and the Taiwanese are maximally hostile to the PRC, so armed reunification is already baked in. The only question that remains is how China can retake Taiwan (and, more importantly, expel the US from the region) as effectively as possible and with lowest cost. It's clear to me that the farther in the future China delays its move, the more likely the outcome will be favourable since the balance of power is shifting toward it by the day.
Now, China doesn't have the luxury of just waiting around without a care. As they say, the enemy gets a vote. Therefore, China must be ready at all times to respond militarily to any real crossing of its red lines: Taiwan declaring de jure independence or developing nuclear weapons. Absent those scenarios, China shouldn't launch a war before it's reasonably sure of decisive victory in the broad sense I outlined above (defeating the US throughout the Pacific, not just taking Taiwan).
So German sized of Gazprom branch is an attempt to steal gas destinated for India. India now needed to pay a record amount for gas. And German would only pay a small fine. Guess German is really desperate.
India has become one of Russia's largest fuel customers since the invasion of Ukraine, but some of those flows have been interrupted as the result of , using that plant to direct supplies to Europe instead ahead of winter.
The plant, which was renamed as Securing Energy for Europe, told GAIL that it no longer had supplies for India, and is currently paying a small fine for not delivering promised LNG shipments in October.
India has become one of Russia's largest fuel customers since the invasion of Ukraine, but some of those flows have been interrupted as the result of , using that plant to direct supplies to Europe instead ahead of winter.
The plant, which was renamed as Securing Energy for Europe, told GAIL that it no longer had supplies for India, and is currently paying a small fine for not delivering promised LNG shipments in October.
