Fourth Taiwan Strait Crisis

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FriedButter

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said experts, noting that what China needs to do is to use this incident to maximize its advantage and keep pushing the reunification process.

so China will not merely focus on playing a game of chicken and hawk with Pelosi, as changing the whole situation of the region is much more significant and valuable.

Wang Jiangyu, a professor of law at the City University in Hong Kong, said China will use this incident to strengthen its sovereignty claim over Taiwan. "For instance, sending squadrons of military aircraft to enter the 'airspace' of Taiwan, or sending military vessels to enter the 'water areas' controlled by the Taiwan military," he said.

Beside crossing the airspace into Taiwan. They could also cross into the waters as well. Major opportunities here for China to seize upon this incident, which the US will gain little from.

Song Zhongping, a Chinese military expert and TV commentator, said based on the experience of the previous Taiwan Straits crisis, the PLA will strike Taiwan military targets but will not directly fire at US targets, so it is possible that the PLA will strike some Taiwan military targets this time as well, and the mainland could also consider speeding up legislation for a national reunification law and even publish a timetable for reunification which will impose real pressure on the US and Taiwan authorities.

Song saying that the PLA could strike a some military targets in Taiwan. However, the interesting part is “speeding” up the national reunification law (sounds like new legislation) and possibility publishing a timetable for reunification. @Temstar didn’t you suggest like 1-2 years ago that there seen to be a deadline for reunification.
 

xypher

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If I may be allowed a short comment, my completely uneducated guess is that nothing is going to happen. Pelosi is -probably- going to visit Taiwan, we will see a lot of posturing and saber rattling from both sides, but nothing of actual substance.

Whether she lands, or not though, this debacle IS going to worsen relations, with long term repercussions.
If China did not want escalation, they could have reacted the usual way. There wasn't that much of a buzz around Pelosi's visit. China instead stepped up both the rhetoric and mobilization, meaning that there is little chance of nothing happenning now.
 

Sardaukar20

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The biggest problem with China's hypothetical invasion of Taiwan is the price that Beijing would have to pay for such an assault. A Normandy-style landing operation wouldn't work in Taiwan, for a number of reasons. First, potential landing zones on the southwestern and northern/northeastern coasts of Taiwan were identified by both sides decades ago; outside of these areas, putting troops on the ground is only possible using helicopters – it is difficult, if not outright impossible, for naval troops to advance from the beaches in those areas. China only has two amphibious assault ships, and a helicopter assault through the Taiwan Strait would be too much even for China.

This Russian analyst is dismissive of China's ability to pull off an amphibious assault on Taiwan. Well what could the Russians teach China about amphibious warfare? I don't think so.

China will not make the same mistakes as Russia. China has a more modern navy, and far superior ISR capability. This is not Normandy of 1944. This is 2022 with satellites, missiles, drones, and strike aircrafts. The PLA will show this pompous Russian, how to do ISR, and deep interdiction on the enemy defences. The Taiwanese beaches will not be manned by battle-hardened Nazis. They'll be manned by confused, scared, and green ROC troops.

Unlike the Russians, China will have drones, and lots of them. They won't be there to just to watch and lase targets. They will actively join the fight too. China will teach Russia, how to properly use drones in modern combat.

The PLAN will not make the same mistake as the Moskva. They'll not have their ships sailing around in offline mode when the Taiwan Straits is hot.

China will show the Russians what electronic warfare really looks like. Not the joke of EW the Russians are doing in Ukraine.

The Russians are good in artillery? So are the PLA. Both have trained together. China has comparable and superior rocket and gun artillery systems to Russia.
 
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Temstar

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Beside crossing the airspace into Taiwan. They could also cross into the waters as well. Major opportunities here for China to seize upon this incident, which the US will gain little from.



Song saying that the PLA could strike a some military targets in Taiwan. However, the interesting part is “speeding” up the national reunification law (sounds like new legislation) and possibility publishing a timetable for reunification. @Temstar didn’t you suggest like 1-2 years ago that there seen to be a deadline for reunification.
According the multiple sources the goal was around 2027.
 

LST

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Do you have any idea what you are talking about ? Once full on naval engagement starts, you won't even know what hit you and from where. This type of overconfidence is suicidal. We Indians too don't want a unipolar world; but you are hellbent on giving the US a chance.

What is the hurry when you are fast closing the gap ? It is just arrogance coming from new wealth earned too quickly. Go on ! Take them on; then wait for another 50 years or more.

Go for it ! Actually I don't think you live in the China mainland - easy for you to send other people to their deaths.

I'm with you, Jat. But...
 
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