broadsword
Brigadier
Pelosi's flight is now in KL, Malaysia, landing soon.
There are no sanctions that will hurt China more than deindustrialized West! Heck, they are struggling with the sanctions imposed to Russia.China would still get sanctioned most likely, why suffer the cost and not go all in in that case?
Anyway taking the outlying islands could cause an effect similar to 2014 take over of Crimea - it will make subsequent large scale military action more difficult because the opponent will be mobilizing more seriously.
This! But not just one. All of them! It is the best asymmetric response to this US made crisis.
Ask local garrisons to surrender, if they don't, unleash hell and conduct airborne and amphibious assaults.
It will be political and military defeat and humiliation for both, USA and Taiwan.
And greatest victory for China since .
It will also show that peaceful independence of Taiwan is not an option. The only options are forceful or peaceful reintegration of the main island to China.
What is the memo?1 - Well, as I've said before, we're fairly annoyed by it. It's a senseless, needlessly provocative political stunt that serves no real purpose, and doesn't do anything to improve the lives of her constituents. I'm sure you saw that memo signed by a bunch of former intel folks. That pretty accurately conveys the general zeitgeist.
2 - Good question. I'm not a politics guy, so I don't think I ought to speculate on that sort of thing. There's a gazilion ways things could go, and a gazillion ways things could kick off, so trying to pin down a single timeline is a fools errand in my opinion.
what sort of advantage does the USA have? thinner iPhone you can buy every year?Some of you probably don't live in China or probably don't have family or friends who live in east coast of China so maybe not directly affected if war breakout. For me, who prefer peace (for now) has stakes because I have family and friends who live in both Mainland (in Fujian and Guangdong provinces) and Taiwan.
If this incident becomes hot war, then east coast of China will be in danger, considering all the USA military bases around China. At the moment, China doesn't have enough military power to threaten mainland USA. China needs to wait until it has at least 6-7 aircraft carriers and a lot of submarines (and maybe increase the nuclear bomb stockpiles) that can threaten USA mainland so if USA attack, China can cause serious damages to USA too. As of right now, China will end up destroying everything that it has built if the war breakout in this region. USA will have the last laugh again, like the repeat during World War II, where Asia and Europe was a warzone and mainland USA left unscatched.
IMHO, this visit by Nancy Pelosi is not really changing the status quo unless Taiwan declares independence. Even if Taiwan declares independence, China should use the least amount of military involvement like arming some insurgents in Taiwan and launch coup d'etat.
China needs to be patience and swallow its pride, if China can wait for 72 years (1949 - 2021) why not wait for another 12 years (1 aircraft carrier around 4 years, at the moment China has 3 aircraft carriers, 3 additional aircraft carriers take around 12 years). Lost a small battle (lost this propaganda game by USA politicians) and win a war (take back Taiwan at the right time chosen by China) is more important.
At the moment, the most painful response to USA should be the attack to its economy not military which USA still has quite advantage.
"The supreme art of war is to subdue the enemy without fighting."
"Engaging in battle without the assurance of victory is a foolish strategy."