Fourth Taiwan Strait Crisis

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4channer

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China would still get sanctioned most likely, why suffer the cost and not go all in in that case?
Anyway taking the outlying islands could cause an effect similar to 2014 take over of Crimea - it will make subsequent large scale military action more difficult because the opponent will be mobilizing more seriously.
There are no sanctions that will hurt China more than deindustrialized West! Heck, they are struggling with the sanctions imposed to Russia.
 

yrydzd

Banned Idiot
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This! But not just one. All of them! It is the best asymmetric response to this US made crisis.
Ask local garrisons to surrender, if they don't, unleash hell and conduct airborne and amphibious assaults.
It will be political and military defeat and humiliation for both, USA and Taiwan.
And greatest victory for China since
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It will also show that peaceful independence of Taiwan is not an option. The only options are forceful or peaceful reintegration of the main island to China.

There is absolutely zero gain for China in taking one of the islands. One of the best Chinese wisdom is 抓主要矛盾 seizing the main conflict. The main issue is always the US military presense in west pacific. Defeat the US, all these islands, even Japan and SK, will be free of the US influence. Taking the islands will only give the US more excuses to demonize China.
 

lolrus

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1 - Well, as I've said before, we're fairly annoyed by it. It's a senseless, needlessly provocative political stunt that serves no real purpose, and doesn't do anything to improve the lives of her constituents. I'm sure you saw that memo signed by a bunch of former intel folks. That pretty accurately conveys the general zeitgeist.

2 - Good question. I'm not a politics guy, so I don't think I ought to speculate on that sort of thing. There's a gazilion ways things could go, and a gazillion ways things could kick off, so trying to pin down a single timeline is a fools errand in my opinion.
What is the memo?
 

yrydzd

Banned Idiot
Registered Member
Please stop saying China should take one of the ROC controlled islands or hit Taiwan directly for retaliation. Taiwan reunification was never about Taiwan. Cleanse US military presence in west pac, Taiwan will be begging for unification. Forcifully taking Taiwan while the US is still calling the shots in west pac, Taiwan will just be a bigger Hong Kong. There is absolutely no use in defeating Taiwan's military, China's goal has always been the US.
 

Suetham

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As already mentioned, the topic is being essentially political, some military maneuvers are taking place in the theater:


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The Chinese aircraft carrier "Shandong" left the base on Hainan and departed in an unknown direction.

Japan reports high activity of warships of the Chinese Navy.


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China conducts exercises in the direction of Taiwan

A Chinese journalist visited the PLA Eastern Command Army's 73rd brigade exercise in the Fujian province area. The connection is reported to have been in the pipeline for several months. Special attention is paid to training in sea driving, shooting and organizing communications during operations. A brigade member said, "We will always keep our spirits up and train hard to win!" Footage in the video shows the formation of battle formations and maneuvers at sea of the crews of the ZLT-05 amphibious tanks.

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Destroyer "Nanjing" (b.n. 155) and frigate "Anyang" (b.n. 599) Type 054A of the 6th Brigade of the Eastern Fleet of the PLA Navy during the period from 30 to 31 July this year. made a call from the waters of the East China Sea to the area of the northwest part of the Philippine Sea and the east coast of Taiwan to organize air defense and "meet" the aircraft carrier Ronald Reagan.

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A Chinese roll-on/roll-off vessel loaded with military equipment. ZTZ-96B’s, ZBD-04A’s and engineering vehicles are seen preparing to be crossed in the event tensions escalate with Taiwan.

In order to effectively land these, Chinese marines, paratroopers and SOF vehicles needs to destroy Taiwanese AShM emplacements and coastal artillery before securing bridgeheads for Chinese army reinforcements to land safely.

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The China Maritime Security Administration in Fujian province sent a Haixun 06 patrol vessel to the Taiwan Strait on July 31. Patrol of the water area will last until August 6th of this year.

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Taiwan military put on high alert

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The Taiwan Ministry of Defense canceled vacations for military personnel and announced the mobilization of air defense forces to "prepare for war."

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On August 1, American reconnaissance aircraft operated southwest of Taiwan - E-8C, P-8A and P-3C aircraft.

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It is reported about the flight on August 1 from Kadena Air Base (Japan) of the reconnaissance aircraft E-8C (registration number 92-3290) with the support of the tanker KS-135R (registration number 57) -1430 ) of the US Air Force. The other day, the specified aircraft performed tasks in the area south of the island of Taiwan. It is possible that today's flight will take place in the same area for the purpose of ground situation reconnaissance.

See you tomorrow guys!!!
 

el pueblo unido

Junior Member
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Some of you probably don't live in China or probably don't have family or friends who live in east coast of China so maybe not directly affected if war breakout. For me, who prefer peace (for now) has stakes because I have family and friends who live in both Mainland (in Fujian and Guangdong provinces) and Taiwan.

If this incident becomes hot war, then east coast of China will be in danger, considering all the USA military bases around China. At the moment, China doesn't have enough military power to threaten mainland USA. China needs to wait until it has at least 6-7 aircraft carriers and a lot of submarines (and maybe increase the nuclear bomb stockpiles) that can threaten USA mainland so if USA attack, China can cause serious damages to USA too. As of right now, China will end up destroying everything that it has built if the war breakout in this region. USA will have the last laugh again, like the repeat during World War II, where Asia and Europe was a warzone and mainland USA left unscatched.

IMHO, this visit by Nancy Pelosi is not really changing the status quo unless Taiwan declares independence. Even if Taiwan declares independence, China should use the least amount of military involvement like arming some insurgents in Taiwan and launch coup d'etat.

China needs to be patience and swallow its pride, if China can wait for 72 years (1949 - 2021) why not wait for another 12 years (1 aircraft carrier around 4 years, at the moment China has 3 aircraft carriers, 3 additional aircraft carriers take around 12 years). Lost a small battle (lost this propaganda game by USA politicians) and win a war (take back Taiwan at the right time chosen by China) is more important.

At the moment, the most painful response to USA should be the attack to its economy not military which USA still has quite advantage.

"The supreme art of war is to subdue the enemy without fighting."
"Engaging in battle without the assurance of victory is a foolish strategy."
what sort of advantage does the USA have? thinner iPhone you can buy every year?
 
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