Fourth Taiwan Strait Crisis

[Petrolicious88]

So what happens if Pelosi decides to fly into Hong Kong without permission? Or any other part of China? Where do you draw the line?

Again, I doubt this will happen, but once Pelosi's plane is shot down it'll be up to America to continue the path of escalation. During the Cold War both sides understood that any limited encounter would quickly escalate to full scale nuclear war.

And US will drastically escalate if Pelosi is killed. No nukes were used back in the Cold War. No nukes are used now even though Ukraine has killed tens of thousands of Russian troops, mostly with US supplied weapons and intelligence.

On that front, Americans have no leg to stand on. Taiwan is recognised as Chinese territory not only by the UN, but but 99% of countries in the world, including the US. No international court or mediation will find America in the right on this, they are 100% in the wrong.

No, knowing who controls world media today, China will be painted as the bad buy. People would be crying bloody murder, and there would likely be sanctions and condemnations. China's allies would likely want to remain out of this mess or put out symbolic statements that don't mean nothing.

 

[AndrewS]

My read is that shooting down Pelosi's plane is a step too far. Once people start dying, it's very difficult to contain the situation.

But a large show of force would get the message across.

So a simultaneous simulated airstrike with something like:

a) 50 aircraft against the carrier so that it can't provide any cover for Pelosi

b) 40 aircraft against Taiwan's Eastern airbases. The fighter element would provide a close escort for Pelosi's plane on the way to Taiwan. Alternatively, Pelosi's plane could decide to divert instead.

At a minimum, this would be a useful exercise for the PLAAF to practice launching large strike packages at short notice. It would also send a huge message to Congress on China's resolve and capability in the Western Pacific. It might actually prevent the visit and could also force the USN reveal wartime operating procedures and frequencies.

 

[Biscuits]

And US will drastically escalate if Pelosi is killed. No nukes were used back in the Cold War. No nukes are used now even though Ukraine has killed tens of thousands of Russian troops, mostly with US supplied weapons and intelligence.

No, knowing who controls world media today, China will be painted as the bad buy. People would be crying bloody murder, and there would likely be sanctions and condemnations. China's allies would likely want to remain out of this mess or put out symbolic statements that don't mean nothing.

They will escalate but all out war is unlikely simply because even they themselves know their chances are poor.

US own domestic audience opinion is invalid, no one cares because it is already presumed they're all brainwashed to begin with, they're the "secure base" who will always just follow the US Government orders, so China can't lose them as a base.

China's allies will only stay out of it to deescalate the situation if China tells them to. If US tries calling in any of their allies, all bets will be off and China will call in everyone as well. Even countries that aren't directly allied with China now will almost certainly join because they all realize that if China is defeated, they'll spend eternity under the US jackboot, so its either fight now for your life or get picked off one by one by an unstoppable US world conquest later.

As far as I see, if China kills Pelosi for illegally entering their territory, US will give China the toughest sanctions they can give without collapsing their economy. But that will naturally also strain US more than China in the long term, so it isn't a horrible trade off.

Beside the Cuban missile crisis, this could also be seen as a similar moment to the US sponsored riots in 1989. Back then, US dared China to shoot its men, and China opened fire, killing many US sponsored scum, making America outraged. Afterwards, America tried to sanction China but could not do too much due to China's role in the world economy. However, the decades after 1989, China's growth was particularly great, because they showed to the world that they stood up to American attempts at controlling the world, and therefore they're a reliable partner. Obviously, no western press will dare to say this openly, but that was the last time America was forcefully repelled, and it was a positive impact to Chinese foreign policy.

 

[supersnoop]

I think we should define clearly what the "L" and "W" here are:

The L is Nancy Pelosi visiting Taiwan. China's red lines are Taiwan declaring de jure independence, Taiwan obtaining nuclear weapons, and Taiwan basing foreign troops. None of these lines are crossed and none of them will be crossed. Anything other than crossing them is theatrics and the proper response to theatrics at this time is other theatrics. They can and should be very dramatic and escalatory theatrics, like an atmospheric nuclear bomb test near Taiwan.

The W is not just China taking Taiwan, or even China expelling the US from the western Pacific, it's China reducing the US to the geopolitical position it held in the 19th century - a power in its hemisphere and nothing more.

So, yes, that's worth the wait and the suffered indignities. Because China is going to make all of them pay; every last one of them is going to pay dearly.

I think people underestimate the patience of the collective leadership of the PRC. Mao/Zhou and Deng, arguably the most powerful leaders of China all died before the return of HK and Macau. None of them pulled any kind of self gratifying Operation Vijay equivalent, the long game was always the plan.

 

[clockwork]

F-35 dropped B61 nuclear bomb probably. Yes it's certainly a big danger to the PLA.

B61s are the hardest to employ against the PLA. They have multiple tactical yield options including the W76-2, ALCM, and the SLCM-N with Congress insisting it not be killed but that'll be years down the line. Technically going full retard and using strategic yield warheads against the battlefield is an option too.

Of course China also has multiple retaliatory options including nuclear DF-26s.

 

[plawolf]

If Pelosi tries to visit Taiwan, I think what fighters the PLAAF sends to ‘escort’ her plane will be extremely telling in what the game plan is and what level of co-ordination has happened behind the scenes.

If it’s J11s, than I think the odds are good the PLAAF is going to lock on to Pelosi’s plane as the final warning and hope that would be enough to force her plane to divert and end the standoff without weapons being fired in anger. This would be a hope/expectation on the part of the PLA only, and there is every chance the US escorts will fire the first shots. J11s would have been sent because they are most expendable.

If it’s J16s, then maybe a deal was reached behind the scenes where Pelosi’s pilots will turn back once her plane is locked and her escorts will lock onto the J16s in response but everyone gets to go home. Pelosi gets to continue playing though by saying she would have gone if the pilots didn’t turn back. The US military can say they stood up to the Chinese but didn’t want to risk the speaker’s life so gets to show strength and responsibility. The Chinese gets to say they forced the US to back off and everyone gets to claim victory.

Either way there will be J20s lurking close by as insurance. Maybe F35s as well.

 

[siegecrossbow]

If Pelosi tries to visit Taiwan, I think what fighters the PLAAF sends to ‘escort’ her plane will be extremely telling in what the game plan is and what level of co-ordination has happened behind the scenes.

If it’s J11s, than I think the odds are good the PLAAF is going to lock on to Pelosi’s plane as the final warning and hope that would be enough to force her plane to divert and end the standoff without weapons being fired in anger. This would be a hope/expectation on the part of the PLA only, and there is every chance the US escorts will fire the first shots. J11s would have been sent because they are most expendable.

If it’s J16s, then maybe a deal was reached behind the scenes where Pelosi’s pilots will turn back once her plane is locked and her escorts will lock onto the J16s in response but everyone gets to go home. Pelosi gets to continue playing though by saying she would have gone if the pilots didn’t turn back. The US military can say they stood up to the Chinese but didn’t want to risk the speaker’s life so gets to show strength and responsibility. The Chinese gets to say they forced the US to back off and everyone gets to claim victory.

Either way there will be J20s lurking close by as insurance. Maybe F35s as well.

I think F-35s may still be grounded due to the ejection seat issue. However, some may have been cleared to fly because I've read that it is a relatively easy fix (explosive bolt replacement). However, that has not been announced yet.

 

[Overbom]

At a minimum, this would be a useful exercise for the PLAAF to practice launching large strike packages at short notice. It would also send a huge message to Congress on China's resolve and capability in the Western Pacific. It might actually prevent the visit and could also force the USN reveal wartime operating procedures and frequencies.

Exercises are useless at the strategic level.

Pelosi's visit is breaking the status quo in favour of US.

In response, China either needs to make a similar action that breaks the status quo in favour of China. Or, prevent Pelosi's visit from happening

 

[gadgetcool5]

Can someone explain to me why this is considered to be such a big issue when Newt Gingrich visited Taiwan in 1997 and it wasn't considered by the PRC to be some huge affront? Not only did Gingrich went, but he brought a huge entourage with a dozen members of Congress. I remember in late that year Jiang Zemin actually visited the US, had a state dinner with Bill Clinton, and put on a tricolor hat. The only thing is that Pelosi is in the same party as Biden whereas Gingrich was a Republican, but in terms of official US titles they were both Speaker of the House, and Gingrich was as much a member of the US government and in line for succession as Pelosi is.

 

[ZeEa5KPul]

It's after all the Chinese people that gives the party the legitimacy to govern China not the other way around.

Wrong. As I've said several times before, there is only one source the Chinese government derives its legitimacy from. It's not the people, it's not the constitution, it's not meritocratic selection, it's not rituals and formalisms. It's

By the way, China isn't unique in this. Every government on Earth (and anywhere else in the universe with intelligent life developed enough to form governments) derives its legitimacy from its monopoly on violence. One could argue (and Westerners do) that "the people" wanted the CPC gone in 1989. Well, the tanks didn't and here we are. Before you form the thought that soldiers are "the people" too and they'll be outraged if China doesn't kill Pelosi and overthrow the Party, understand very well that the PLA is not an institution with a habit of questioning the wisdom coming from the top.

Don't know what you do for a living or what experiences you have made in your life but your outlook, let alone cavalier attitude towards the thoughts of the people under you if you're a leader or led any group of people successfully. Your pronouncements comes off a striking resemblance to Jiang Jieshi's brash, bold, and uncaring attitude towards the very people he needed to secure his victory and vision for his Republic of China.

I don't do pop history so I don't understand the point you're trying to make. What I'm about to say might come off as condescending and belittling, but I don't intend it to be so - I intend it to be blunt and direct. I get the impression that you're from Turkey or some other small country. Frankly speaking, you don't and can't understand what it means to play for stakes this high. Turkey (or whatever small country you're from) doesn't have much to gain or much to lose, so it doesn't think very deeply about the choices it makes. China is playing for everything - what's at stake is mastery over the world. It must think very carefully about every step it takes.

Finally, I care about the Chinese people, which is why I want victory for them and not momentary emotional release.