Ukrainian War Developments

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Richard Santos

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China sending aid to Ukraine"

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CCP clearly sensing the way the wind is blowing, Won't be long before Ukraine Army has thousands of HJ12s and UAF lots of WL-2. Wonder how many of the Putin fan-bois on here will change their colours too?


Get real, China wants Putin to win avoiding the appearance of having pushed a knife into Ukraine’s back.

Also, China needs a stronger appearance of impartiality if she was to have a chance of capitalizing on the opportunity opened up by the push to have her mediate the conflict.
 

cn_habs

Junior Member
China sending aid to Ukraine"

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CCP clearly sensing the way the wind is blowing, Won't be long before Ukraine Army has thousands of HJ12s and UAF lots of WL-2. Wonder how many of the Putin fan-bois on here will change their colours too?
I hope the Russian speakers in or around Donbass get those first after 8 years of continuous shelling.
 

Phead128

Major
Staff member
Moderator - World Affairs
You totally missed my point. If the above is what you think I meant, I would have contradicted myself because it would mean that Putin should have done it in 2014 when Ukrainian military was in a much worse position to defend themselves.

I meant precisely what I said. Go back to read what I said.
Putin's moves is genius because his vision is not as narrow short sighted as you. His eyes were NOT on Ukraine ONLY. He was waiting for his opportunities. Right now is the best time, because the the US is in ever dire need for an aggressive quantitative tightening. The rampant inflation will be massively exasperated by sanction on Russia. This put even higher pressure for aggressive interest rate hike. And if global capital (mainly those from Europe) do NOT return back to the US after Fed start a train of rate hikes, it would crash the US economy. This is what Putin is banking on.

Putin's war is a "genius move" because it splits EU/US and crashes US economy because of high inflation risk and oil/gas sanctions backfiring?

This is some desperate attempt to backwards justify Putin's actions as 5D chess move. Putin likely did not anticipate the severity and uniformity of Western sanctions and anticipated a swift ceasefire and negotiations after a blitzkrieg. I personally think the economic sanctions endure is not worth it without annexing large amount territories or atleast installation of a puppet regime to have permanent veto over Ukraine foreign policy. Say hypothetically, if Putin only gets some neutrality treaty, LNR/DNR annexation, Crimean recognition, then it is hardly worth the sanctions imposed so far.
 

FairAndUnbiased

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Registered Member
Putin's war is a "genius move" because it splits EU/US and crashes US economy because of high inflation risk and oil/gas sanctions backfiring?

This is some desperate attempt to backwards justify Putin's actions as 5D chess move. Putin likely did not anticipate the severity and uniformity of Western sanctions and anticipated a swift ceasefire and negotiations after a blitzkrieg. I personally think the economic sanctions endure is not worth it without annexing large amount territories or atleast installation of a puppet regime to have permanent veto over Ukraine foreign policy. Say hypothetically, if Putin only gets some neutrality treaty, LNR/DNR annexation, Crimean recognition, then it is hardly worth the sanctions imposed so far.
I like to think of it this way, to boil down the end result:

Putin has decided that Russia trying to be western wasn't working thanks to 20+ years of provocations, so he's going to make it fully eastern.

Now there needs to be a dividing line between east and west. Ukraine is simply a conflict over where that line will exactly fall.

BTW, sanctions work if you are the one selling irreplacable things and others need to buy from you. Russia is the one selling irreplacable resources though. how does stopping yourself from transacting electronic numbers for real resources you don't have, a punishment for others?

There's also more FDI in Russia than Russian FDI elsewhere. who were the geniuses that thought Russia wouldn't just take their stuff if they sanctioned Russia? In fact Russia can ONLY take their stuff as they are unable to pay for it except in rubles, thanks to their sanctions.
 

LawLeadsToPeace

Senior Member
Staff member
Moderator - World Affairs
Registered Member
We are clearly exagerating the so-called Russian deficiencies when in reality, those are primarily the result of several restrictions, lack of understanding of local morale and assumptions of the early phase of the operation, for example the idea that civilian casualties could be avoided.

Add to this the prospect that the special operation can be acheived using the Syria op minded process of minimal forces applying maximum pressure (reports say a force of merely 200,000 including naval and support personnel against the second largest army in Europe), using legacy equipment mostly (we have yet to see Mi-28s being deployed, heck not even RuAF Su-24s seem to have been pressed over Ukraine).

The overall objectives still stand, which are to demilitarize Ukraine, destroy "Nazi" battalions and give even more creedence to the Donbass and Lughansk republics. So far, all those objectives are being consolidated, the more the Ukranian leadership props up delusional ideas of victory, the more the RF forces will gobble Ukraine, the leverage Kiev will have on its negotiations.

So in short, Putin's gamble is paying off, slowly but surely, despite the sanctions assaulting his country and people, but the end result look more and more like the invariable and permanent tilt of the geopolitical balance towards the East, which if true, would be yet another of the Kremlin's objectives.

View attachment 84896


People are too used to seeing the beatdowns like the ones Iraq received twice in 1991 and 2003. The reality is that the Iraqi military and the other Arab forces, in general and frankly speaking, suck. Just to get the message across to all those with a thick skull, Arab militaries are f**king s**ty at 20th and 21st century warfare. The Iraqis were s**t at their peak in 1991 and s**t at their lowest point in 2003. The Ukranians are significantly more competent than Arabs in almost every single way. The fact that Russian forces managed to gain that much ground at their current speed despite their underfunded training, crappy opening manuevers and ROE, and strained logistics shows that the Russian military is able to quickly adapt to the situation at hand and exploit the weaknesses of the Ukranians. That means the Russians still got their s**t together.
 

Temstar

Brigadier
Registered Member
Heard a rumour that 4 (Yes, 4!) Su-57 were spotted flying in a formation over Zhitomir.
Apparently this is the buzz on Russian social media
Well on twitter they're quoting this as evidence:
The same video that people in this thread figured was a Su-34. To be fair though the video is so low in resolution that it could plausibly be Su-57, although I question why would RuAF send Su-57 into this war, unless it has really good and unexpected ground attack capabilities?
 
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