Ukrainian War Developments

[taxiya]

Since numerous NATO countries have cleared their citizens to join the fight in Ukraine, what happens to them when they get capture? Does the POW rule of Geneva convention applies to those foreign volunteers?

I know Geneva convention doesn't apply to mercenaries as they are not recognized as legitimate combatants. But foreign citizens that volunteered are not exactly contracted mercenaries though. Are they going to be imprisoned in Russia after the war?

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2001​

This is from wiki.
Article 1
1. A mercenary is any person who:

(a) Is specially recruited locally or abroad in order to fight in an armed conflict;
(b) Is motivated to take part in the hostilities essentially by the desire for private gain and, in fact, is promised, by or on behalf of a party to the conflict, material compensation substantially in excess of that promised or paid to combatants of similar rank and functions in the armed forces of that party;
(c) Is neither a national of a party to the conflict nor a resident of territory controlled by a party to the conflict;
(d) Is not a member of the armed forces of a party to the conflict; and
(e) Has not been sent by a State which is not a party to the conflict on official duty as a member of its armed forces.

According to (c), a foreign resident of Ukraine is legal combatant. According to (e) a military adviser or trainer from outside is a legal combatant.

A foreign volunteer other than (c) and (e) is a mercenary even if the person is not paid. Therefor they are not protected by Geneva convention on POW.

Noticeably most NATO countries and Russia were not part of that convention. This means that at least for the Russians, it is totally up to them to decide how they are to be treated. They can be treated as POW if the sending country is willing to pay a price, or just vaporize them.

[Addition]
An interesting point is for countries like Poland and Belgium, both are parties of the convention. They themselves have legally categorized their (possible) volunteers as mercenary, denying them to be treated as POW. It would be very hard for them to negotiate with Russia if their citizens went missing in Ukraine.

That is probably why it is only UK in Europe encouraging their citizen.

 

[FairAndUnbiased]

https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1499455037726248967

I called this. What they actually mean is Ukrainian C4SIR capabilities have completely collapsed and Ukrainian forces are being commanded by E-3s and E-8s in international waters and in NATO airspace.

 

[Overbom]

I saw today's interview with Ukranian President. He seemed quite broken. I think in 2-3 days, he should be sincere enough for real negotiations. Only at that time China can lift its finger and help Ukraine a bit if needed

 

[ArmchairAnalyst]

Copy-pasted from another forum I follow elsewhere to get things back on track...the military aspect.

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today's ISW assessment:

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Mason Clark, George Barros, and Kateryna Stepanenko

March 3, 4:00 pm EST

The Russian military has continued its unsuccessful attempts to encircle Kyiv and capture Kharkiv. The Russians continued to attack piecemeal, committing a few battalion tactical groups at a time rather than concentrating overwhelming force to achieve decisive effects. Russian commanders appear to prefer opening up new lines of advance for regiment-sized operations but have been unable to achieve meaningful synergies between efforts along different axes toward the same objectives. They have also continued conducting operations in southern Ukraine along three diverging axes rather than concentrating on one or attempting mutually supporting efforts. These failures of basic operational art—long a strong suit of the Soviet military and heavily studied at Russian military academies—remain inexplicable as does the Russian military’s failure to gain air superiority or at least to ground the Ukrainian Air Force. The Russian conventional military continues to underperform badly, although it may still wear down and defeat the conventional Ukrainian military by sheer force of numbers and brutality. Initial indications that Russia is mobilizing reinforcements from as far away as the Pacific Ocean are concerning in this respect. Those indications also suggest, however, that the Russian General Staff has concluded that the forces it initially concentrated for the invasion of Ukraine will be insufficient to achieve Moscow’s military objectives.

Operations to envelop Kyiv remain Russia’s main effort. Russian troops are also continuing three supporting efforts, one to seize Kharkiv, one to take Mariupol and secure the “land bridge” connecting Rostov-on-Don to Crimea, and one to secure Kherson and set conditions for a drive west toward Mykolayiv and Odesa.

The Russian attack on Kyiv likely consists of a main effort aimed at enveloping and ultimately encircling the city from the west and a supporting effort along the axes from Chernihiv and Sumy to encircle it from the east.

Russian forces in the south resumed offensive operations toward Mykolayiv on March 3 after securing Kherson on March 2, but do not appear to pose an imminent danger to Odesa. Russian forces likely seek to force Mariupol to capitulate by destroying critical civilian infrastructure and killing civilians to create a humanitarian catastrophe—an approach Russian forces have repeatedly taken in Syria.[1]

Key Takeaways

• Russian forces opened a new line of advance from Belarus south toward Zhytomyr Oblast, west of Kyiv, as Russian forces attempting to encircle Kyiv from the northwest were driven further west by determined Ukrainian resistance and counterattacks. Russian forces will struggle to complete an encirclement of Kyiv at all if they have to advance along ring roads as far from the city center as those they are now using.
• Russian forces on the east bank of the Dnipro River remain unable to secure the important town of Chernihiv or to break through Ukrainian defenses in the northeastern outskirts of Kyiv.
• Russian ground forces have remained relatively static near Kharkiv as Russian artillery, air, and missile bombardments wreak devastation in the city. The Ukrainian military indicates that a regiment-sized Russian formation will try to envelop or bypass Kharkiv in the coming days. Similar Russian attempts at such operations elsewhere in Ukraine render the success of such an undertaking at that scale unlikely.
• Russian forces are attempting once again to open a line of advance through northern Luhansk Oblast, possibly to assist efforts at Kharkiv or, as the Ukrainian General Staff assesses, to drive on Dnipro and Zaprozhya. The Russian forces currently reported as engaging in that drive are far too small to attack either city successfully and are probably insufficient to sustain a long drive on their own.
• Russian troops have surrounded Mariupol and are attacking it brutally to compel its capitulation or destroy it.
• The mayor of Kherson conditionally surrendered to the Russians, allowing Russian forces to renew their advance on Mykolayiv, which they have done. The Ukrainian military nevertheless reportedly defeated an attempted Russian air assault to take an airfield near Mykolayiv.

 

[tamsen_ikard]

I saw today's interview with Ukranian President. He seemed quite broken. I think in 2-3 days, he should be sincere enough for real negotiations. Only at that time China can lift its finger and help Ukraine a bit if needed

View attachment 84352

Russia hasn't made any Progress in Kiev for many days now. I don't know what they are doing there.

What is the use of having 40 mile long traffic Jam?


Russian advanced has slowed way too much now. Not enough progress is being made. At this rate it will take 6 months to take Ukraine.

 

[KYli]

That's a lot of foreign fighters.

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A siege of Kyiv probably still a few days away. Don't look like there is a diplomatic way out of this mess at the moment. 90% of Russian troops that is between 150,000 to 170,000 Russian troops.

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90% of the Russian forces that had massed on the border are now inside Ukraine

Russian forces in the south are seeking to cut off Ukraine's access to the sea, advancing toward the major port city of Mykolaiv after taking control of Kherson. A senior U.S. defense official said Russian troops in the south have not experienced the same logistical and supply issues that have held up the offensive near Kyiv.

The city of Mariupol remains in Ukrainian control, but has been encircled by Russian forces

 

[Overbom]

Russia hasn't made any Progress in Kiev for many days now. I don't know what they are doing there.

What is the use of having 40 mile long traffic Jam?


Russian advanced has slowed way too much now. Not enough progress is being. At this rate it will take 6 months to take Ukraine.

The reason is always the same. Everyone always ignores logistics. They face severe logistic issues which slow down their advance.

They have a huge army inside Ukraine but they cant fully utilise due to their lack of supplies. Once again:
"Amateurs talk strategy, professionals talk about logistics"

 

[meckhardt98]

Kalibr missile shot down over Kiev today by Ukrainian air defenses.

This signifies that Kiev still has a considerable air defense presence as previously observed; and also explains why the RuAF has been more hesitant on using precision strikes against the city and has switched to launching ALCM from within their borders with Tu22M2/3 instead of endangering the lives of combat pilots, an important component of the RuAF.

You can replace equipment, you can’t replace an experienced pilot so easily.

 

[KYli]

China might want to hire some of RT staffs as CCTV sucks.

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It isn't going to be 10 cents more. More like a dollar more per gallon.

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Pressed by reporters Thursday about the consequences for U.S. consumers, who could see gasoline prices rise, Mr. Manchin said he would gladly pay 10 cents more a gallon to help the Ukrainians.

“This is war,” he said.

Saudi said no for now for pumping more oil. Although the US pressure would be relentless.

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[meckhardt98]

Another trend to that I’ve observed from the Ukrainian side is their usage of equipment left behind by Russian forces.

When the Soviet Union collapsed the Ukrainians inherited a vast amount of equipment; this applies to Russia and over Soviet states as well; so with the Ukrainians inheriting said equipment they also adopted many of the same practices and procedures of the Soviet military as well; this too can be said for the Russian military.

This standardization of training and the relative sameness of equipment used by both forces has allowed the Ukrainian military to reuse captured and abandoned Russian military equipment; and reuse it quite efficiently given that they operate many of the same systems within their own military as-well.

This is going to contribute to the slow down in the Russian advance, especially within strategic airspace as we’ve seen the Ukrainians repurpose 9k37 systems amongst other which is more of a threat to Russian forces than captured tanks and armored vehicles; with that being said the Ukrainians are still able to replace their losses to an extent with those systems it’s just not that big of a hindrance when compared to a SAM system.

Ultimately this won’t stop the Russian advance however it’s interesting to note it’s occurrence and semi-effectiveness given the relative sameness of the equipment used by both parties.

*As a side note as-well many of the conscripts that operate these systems probably thought they’d be able to return to their vehicles once the Russian advance caught up to them without them being stolen a la Chicago.