Ukrainian War Developments

[FairAndUnbiased]

The wider market will never accept a state controlled currency. Like ask your next Chinese economy prof how he would see it. There is a reason why the world uses US Dollars.

What is the difference between a state controlled currency and a nominally free currency where the state can confiscate everything you own worldwide with the stroke of a pen?

 

[Abominable]

I don’t even know if any records of them will even be left. There are no civilians flights to Ukraine. That means they have to cross the border but I doubt Ukraine is doing paperwork for the entering foreigner. Russia could sentence them to 100 years in a Siberian prison and no one would even know a thing.

After the Syria debacle, I am sure western governments will be keeping a very close eye on any young single males travelling on one way tickets to any country bordering Ukraine. By saying nothing and portraying a picture where the Ukrainian military are winning when they clearly are not, they are putting a lot of naïve people in a very dangerous situation.

There probably are NATO professional soldiers on the ground giving advice to the Ukrainians. They will be highly trained, professional and brave as f*ck if I'm honest. They know if they get caught, they are on their own.

At least they will have an exit plan for when shit hits the fan. These guys will have nothing.

 

[tamsen_ikard]

It’s like you want to ruin the Chinese economy. Even ignoring there is still a currency exchanging involved

China will have to move away from the dollar to trade exclusively in Yuan, Just a matter of time now. Sooner or later its access to dollar will be cutoff to put pressure on it. Ofcourse China desires stability and probably it cannot do that just yet with GDP per capita so low. They might have more confidence when their GDP per capita hits 30 thousand dollar or more.

It's ok for China to risk asset freezes, because there are more American assets in China than Chinese assets in America. Just like Russia is going to keep all those leased western planes that are stranded in Russia and probably many other western assets. In both world wars the US seized German private assets including patents. So as long as you are prepared for a total decoupling, you can keep all the publicly and privately owned foreign assets on your soil.

Of course it would be even smarter to borrow a lot of money from western banks before starting a war, then use the money to buy commodities and if there are any sanctions, default on the debt. That would cause a financial crisis for the affected banks and drive up inflation in the outside world because of higher commodity prices.

Does US really have $3tn in Assets in China? I don't think so. US capital investment on China has never been that high. More investment have come from places like Hong kong, taiwan, Japan, Korea.

 

[Pmichael]

What is the difference between a state controlled currency and a nominally free currency where the state can confiscate everything you own worldwide with the stroke of a pen?

What was confiscated?

 

[FairAndUnbiased]

What was confiscated?

Half of Afghanistan's reserves.

Whatever Russia's situation is.

 

[ZeEa5KPul]

A lot of western GI Joes will be experiencing a very accurate re-enactment of Tora Bora very soon, but in reverse. Anyone who is not summarily executed on the spot when captured will face a Nuremburg style trial and a prison sentence at the very least.

If Russia has a lick of sense, they'll film these foreign "volunteer" captures and blast their confessions all over social media. Oh, what I would give to see some Reddit edgelord in Amazon tacticool gear weeping on camera.

 

[vincent]

Problem is international transation needs lot of yuan.

Yuan available for this purpose needs lot of trade deficit, to inject the money into the hand of foreigners/central banks.
It needs to be 3-5% of the GDP for 5-10 years at least.

There is no other way to achieve it.

Currency swap

 

[ironborn]

Half of Afghanistan's reserves.

Whatever Russia's situation is.

It's actually all of the Afghanistan's reserves.
Plus, look up or search civil forfeiture in the US, different levels of governments seized citizens' property and money, the total amount is greater than property crime. And it's on the owner to prove if it's legitimate or not.

 

[Minm]

Does US really have $3tn in Assets in China? I don't think so. US capital investment on China has never been that high. More investment have come from places like Hong kong, taiwan, Japan, Korea.

I don't know the number of US assets in China, but there are a lot of European assets to be seized. Also think of the licensing fees and patents. If the US steals 3 trillion USD from China, do you really think the likes of Qualcomm or Arm are going to receive a cent for their IP licenses? It doesn't matter anyway as China won't be so stupid as to leave all that money in the US if a crisis is developing. The US dollar won't be a "safe haven" currency after what they've done with the Russian reserves.

 

[ZeEa5KPul]

The wider market will never accept a state controlled currency. Like ask your next Chinese economy prof how he would see it. There is a reason why the world uses US Dollars.

I would say the wider market will never accept a currency whose issuer can seize and sanction it at the slightest whim, yet here we are. The reason the world uses the US dollar is primarily bureaucratic inertia and secondarily military force. American sanctions are rapidly taking care of the first factor and China's rise is taking care of the second.

People traded with each other long before America existed; shocking, I know. There were even reserve currencies before the USD and there shall be reserve currencies after it.