American Economics Thread

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takwb

New Member
Registered Member
I am by no means an expert, based on what I have read and gathered so far:

It seems that while it's unlikely that we will observe a goods inflation based on what SleepyStudent says, there will continue to be an asset inflation in the form of higher prices of just about any asset (equity, real estate, etc)
 
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LesAdieux

Junior Member
inflation, transitory or not?

lots of debates on the topic recently. one side claims it's transitory due to rapid recovery, supply chain bottlenecks, base effect… the other side claims rampant inflation is coming. fed is on the transitory side. it says it's gonna to let the economy run hot before stepping in. well, if it's not transitory, then inflation may run hot first.

inflation usually starts to rise when the economy approaching full employment, the US economy is far from there in an ordinary sense, however, jobs lost for more than one year may not come back, the job report in April may imply that the job recall is coming to the end.

the return of the Johnson - Nixon style inflation will profoundly change the economic scape, we'll be in a different realm.
 
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LesAdieux

Junior Member
horse said:
This is similar to what Japan did, with their stimulus over 20 years ago, and they still are fighting deflationary pressures today.

Then next, deflation grips continental Europe. They tired similar strategies like Japan to combat it. One irony of the 2008 crash, was the sucking out of credit from the system created deflationary pressure, and all Helicopter Ben did was what the Japanese used to do, which Helicopter Ben at that time criticized as being useless.

What goes around, comes around, as the Anglos like to say.

What I conclude for the moment, is two things,

1. Not convinced that inflation will be a feature for the United States in the next few years. Need to see more evidence, which has to come when the economy normalizes after the pandemic shock.

2. If there is inflation in the United States, it could be only them. There is no reason to believe that Japan and German beat their deflation problems. China could see deflation.


The big wild card is the currency. The USD could go down.

But, will the Europeans and Chinese decide they will not let the United States get away with it and depreciate their currencies as well? That is a big unknown.


Buy a little bit of everything, and hope for the best. That is what I try to do with my merge savings!

:)
Click to expand...

China has been The world's deflator in the past 30 years. but the "Great Moderation" has come to the end. japs are in terminal decline.
 
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voyager1

Captain
Registered Member
LesAdieux said:
inflation, transitory or not?

lots of debates on the topic recently. one side claims it's transitory due to rapid recovery, supply chain bottlenecks, base effect… the other side claims rampant inflation is coming. fed is on the transitory side. it says it's gonna to let the economy run hot before stepping in. well, if it's not transitory, then inflation may run hot first.

inflation usually starts to rise when the economy approaching full employment, the US economy is far from there in an ordinary sense, however, jobs lost for more than one year may not come back, the job report in April may imply that the job recall is coming to the end.

the return of the Johnson - Nixon style inflation will profoundly change the economic scape, we'll be in a different realm.
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Lmao what transitory? FED's Powell thinks that he can decieve the whole world.

Let me ask you, have you ever seen companies LOWERING prices?

I will tell you what, in my whole life I have never seen prices getting reduced.

Inflation is here to stay. Buckle up and get ready for it
 
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Xizor

Xizor

Captain
Registered Member
AssassinsMace said:
So where are all those that cry China's economy is collapsing because it got a hangnail on the US latest jobs reports was only 25% of what was the predicted gain?
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The recent job report is an anomaly likely.

1. People in the US have received a handful of cash. Never have they been in the position before.

2. Doing work from home have introduced to people to the negatives of working in the office cubicles. Many who lost job or got furloughed may not be interested in returning to the same kind of jobs.

I'd wait another month or two to guage the impact on US workforce. That's enough time to have people run out of their Fed honeymoon.
 
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voyager1

Captain
Registered Member
Xsizor said:
The recent job report is an anomaly likely.

1. People in the US have received a handful of cash. Never have they been in the position before.

2. Doing work from home have introduced to people to the negatives of working in the office cubicles. Many who lost job or got furloughed may not be interested in returning to the same kind of jobs.

I'd wait another month or two to guage the impact on US workforce. That's enough time to have people run out of their Fed honeymoon.
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Agreed. I think that extending the unemployment benefits has played a part for this job report.

Things will really heat up when the eviction ban will end on September
Thats when the real fireworks will happen !!
 
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