Chinese semiconductor industry

[broadsword]

Economic competition is good, actually

Tell that to Biden or Trump.

 

[Deleted member 15949]

Tell that to Biden or Trump.

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[hashtagpls]

Economic competition is good, actually

China needs to put tariffs on Apple products.

To really level the playing field, China would be sanctioning apple and Cisco and kidnapping apple and Cisco executives and forcing other countries to also tear out apple and Cisco products

 

[krautmeister]

Do you really think that the US, China or Japan couldn't develop EUV machine? are they really dumb and the Dutch is the only one that smart enough? ... think about it

The only and only reason the US, China and Japan didn't develop it seriously, because they didn't have to ... but now China has to develop on its own .. and I have no doubt it will be successful in 3-5 yrs and it will be the end of ASML as a few other big countries want to develop the technology as well without US tech, Japan included. It is all because of Trump playing fire and sadly Biden continue that dump policy

You have a strong point there. When the Trump administration first began sanctioning semicon equipment, I thought China was done for and would be lucky to fully domesticate 28nm supply chain anytime before 2027. Every pundit was describing it as the doomsday scenario to stall China's economy via forced decoupling. It all made sense when you look at how long things took to develop each process from 180nm=>3nm. Then, within 2 years, China starts knocking down one bottleneck after another like dominoes. Either China's scientific/technical capabilities are far greater than once thought, or this is just a lot easier than we've been led to believe.

 

[Deleted member 15949]

You have a strong point there. When the Trump administration first began sanctioning semicon equipment, I thought China was done for and would be lucky to fully domesticate 28nm supply chain anytime before 2027. Every pundit was describing it as the doomsday scenario to stall China's economy via forced decoupling. It all made sense when you look at how long things took to develop each process from 180nm=>3nm. Then, within 2 years, China starts knocking down one bottleneck after another like dominoes. Either China's scientific/technical capabilities are far greater than once thought, or this is just a lot easier than we've been led to believe.

Have you thought that catch-up growth is faster than pushing the frontier? And the latent capabilities were already there?

 

[ansy1968]

Have you thought that catch-up growth is faster than pushing the frontier? And the latent capabilities were already there?

@SleepyStudent Bro totally agree, that is why this SSMB is exciting? It will be China first of many frontier tech development. and I see a big possibility of it being introduced within the decade.

 

[krautmeister]

Have you thought that catch-up growth is faster than pushing the frontier? And the latent capabilities were already there?

Yes, catch-up is always faster when it's already been done but the catch-up we are seeing is unprecedentedly fast while being accompanied but technology sanctions designed to keep China behind at least 2 generations. The speed at which China is advancing is almost inexplicable, I am almost suspecting there is massive industrial espionage going on somehow.

In the last 2 years, the breakthroughs have not just been with traditional DUV lithography. There have even been breakthroughs in non-traditional lithography like nanoimprint, laser and electron beam lithography. China went from having a 90nm DUV dry lithography machine that wasn't even fully industrialized to having all the most technically challenging components needed for a fully domestic 28nm DUV immersion lithograph industrial chain. Even a full design flow EDA solution was recently announced by Empyrean Technology, something I thought would have taken to at least 2024 to be ready.

Unfortunately, that other important technology area China is behind, namely high performance aero engines is still moving relatively slowly. Witness the WS-15, WS-20 and CJ-1000AX turbofan engines.

 

[latenlazy]

E

Yes, catch-up is always faster when it's already been done but the catch-up we are seeing is unprecedentedly fast while being accompanied but technology sanctions designed to keep China behind at least 2 generations. The speed at which China is advancing is almost inexplicable, I am almost suspecting there is massive industrial espionage going on somehow.

In the last 2 years, the breakthroughs have not just been with traditional DUV lithography. There have even been breakthroughs in non-traditional lithography like nanoimprint, laser and electron beam lithography. China went from having a 90nm DUV dry lithography machine that wasn't even fully industrialized to having all the most technically challenging components needed for a fully domestic 28nm DUV immersion lithograph industrial chain. Even a full design flow EDA solution was recently announced by Empyrean Technology, something I thought would have taken to at least 2024 to be ready.

Unfortunately, that other important technology area China is behind, namely high performance aero engines is still moving relatively slowly. Witness the WS-15, WS-20 and CJ-1000AX turbofan engines.

If you only gauge success by immediately visible results you will miss the picture on actual progress.

 

[caudaceus]

lithography like nanoimprint, laser and electron beam lithography

Are they also used in Chip fabs and/or have other uses ?

 

[krautmeister]

E

If you only gauge success by immediately visible results you will miss the picture on actual progress.

We can only discuss what is immediately visible and public. Beyond that, we can speculate on the research potential of things like SSMB EUV and other related developments like graphene wafers, electron beam lithography, but in the end, actual progress is guessing if we don't have inside information.