American Economics Thread

W20

Junior Member
Registered Member
I don't think so

the Price (and its inverse "Yield") of US_Treasury_10years ... used to move around the trend of Nominal GDP +/- higher or lower Liquidity

I mean these movements seem normal
 

Petrolicious88

Senior Member
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China wants to buy US weapons, semiconductor equipment, companies, etc.... but US won't sell.

Whose fault is that?


THat's pretty much been China's argument since the trade deficits started.
US will prob ask China to buy more US treasuries in the March 18 meeting. In exchange what will the Us offer?
 

voyager1

Captain
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Treasuries dropped in overnight trading after a large sale of long-dated bond futures in Asia, according to people familiar with the matter. Yields on the benchmark 10-year note, a key marker across global asset markets, jumped to 1.63 per cent by morning on Wall Street, having traded around 1.53 per cent the day before.

Spicy. Let me remind you that just 2 months ago the yield was around 0.85 per cent and now it just closed at 1.63 per cent.

And the best part is that Biden now is planning for an infrastructure bill which could go up to 4 (could go for less) trillion dollars. Lol
 

AndrewS

Brigadier
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Spicy. Let me remind you that just 2 months ago the yield was around 0.85 per cent and now it just closed at 1.63 per cent.

And the best part is that Biden now is planning for an infrastructure bill which could go up to 4 (could go for less) trillion dollars. Lol

Even 1.63% is near historic lows.

The question is how high treasury yields will increase and who is going to be buying
 

W20

Junior Member
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There is a good correlation between "Velocity of Money" (GDP / Money) and Treasurys

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The point is the Federal Reserve has been buying tons for years ... keeping the price high (and the yield low)
 

W20

Junior Member
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Yield

UST_10y: 1.6

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Now imagine that the Federal Reserve stops printing dollars ... and ... Suppose inflation equal to 2 and real growth equal to 2

Yield = 4
 

voyager1

Captain
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There is a good correlation between "Velocity of Money" (GDP / Money) and Treasurys

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The point is the Federal Reserve has been buying tons for years ... keeping the price high (and the yield low)
And the FED has now discontinued the measurement of M2 money supply, seems they got scared that people are waking up to the fraud.

The ECB (European Central Bank) is also increasing its printing by a lot as well.

Japan, well Japan is in shambles. The BOJ (central bank of Japan) now owns a full 50% of the entire Japanese stock market. And lets not forget that the central bank is now holding more US treasuries than China (last time i checked). Imagine holding US Treasuries when the US is planning to inflate its debt to heaven lol

So China's position now is extremely strong now. With strong projected growth, good bond yields, starting to tighten a bit the monetary policy, the good management of the covid, Xi's plan for better quality gdp growth all this is making the China's bonds a safe heaven for international investors (in 2008 crisis the safe heaven status was the US treasuries) which in turn helps internationalising the yuan.

China will enter the Alaska meeting with the US from a position of strength and confidence in its economy
 

W20

Junior Member
Registered Member

Yes, yes

imagine that sometime in the future (2049 (?))... the world lost its appetite and thirst for dollars ...

Game over, Insert coin
 
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