Well, the German economy isn't going to get better any time soon given the covid is going back up all around Europe so they are going to have to be very careful who to place trust in. If they still keep on bending the knee to the USA (a nation that is not above backstabbing for meet there goals), well then they are not going to be in a very good way.
Chinese Economics Thread
- Thread starter Norfolk
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Hendrik_2000
Lieutenant General
Well the economic news is getting better and better Nikkei estimate growth for 3rd quarter is 5.1%
China GDP growth headed for 5.2% in Q3 rebound: Nikkei survey
STELLA WONG and TAKESHI KIHARA, Nikkei staff writers
October 6, 2020 16:02 JST
HONG KONG -- China's economy likely expanded 5.2% in the July-September quarter as a policy-led recovery continues, with growth expected to accelerate from 3.2% during the April-June period, a survey by Nikkei and Nikkei Quick News found.
Though some economists express optimism that tariffs on Chinese goods will be reduced if former Vice President Joe Biden wins the American presidential election next month, others think the U.S.-China rivalry will continue regardless of the result of the vote.
China has largely contained the spread of the coronavirus, and the economy quickly returned to growth in the April-June period. The survey of 29 economists revealed that most expect July-September growth to expand further, with estimates for the third quarter ranging from 2.5% to 7.1%.
Ricky Choi, principal economist at Bank of China (Hong Kong), predicted that China's gross domestic product increased by 5.1% in the third quarter. The country's management of the COVID-19 outbreak likely will drive a rebound in consumption and production activities, he said.
"China is likely to be the only country to reach pre-crisis [economic] level by the end of 2020," said Sean Taylor, chief investment officer for Asia-Pacific at DWS. Its economy already has reached 80% of the level before the pandemic, he said.
Francoise Huang, senior economist for Asia-Pacific at Euler Hermes, was more optimistic. She forecast 5.5% growth for the third quarter, saying that China's exports have performed better than expected in the past few months due to strong external demand for Chinese medical products amid the pandemic.
"On the domestic side, while the recovery in consumption remains sluggish, the more policy-driven areas of the economy are proving dynamic -- particularly construction and infrastructure investment," she said.
Economists in the survey also estimated China's full-year GDP growth at 2.2%, up from a forecast of 1.6% in a survey conducted during June. They projected 7.8% growth for 2021 and 5.4% for 2022.
The economists generally believed that a victory by President Donald Trump in the November election would maintain or even intensify the heightened U.S.-China tensions over the next four years. Some forecast that the U.S. would cut tariffs on Chinese goods if Biden became president, likely benefiting China's exports in 2021.
Ken Chen, Chinese economy analyst at KGI Asia, thinks Biden also might withdraw some sanctions on Chinese tech companies if he wins, which would allow China's manufacturing industry to recover with more investments.
Christina Zhu, an economist at Moody's Analytics, agreed that a Biden win could signal a return to a multilateral approach in addressing trade issues through the World Trade Organization and other international frameworks, leading to a reduction in tariffs.
"Lower tariffs might not occur immediately, but over time as other issues are resolved through negotiations, tariffs would likely be reduced," she said.
But not all the economists agreed that a Biden victory would benefit China's economy.
Tommy Wu, lead economist at Oxford Economics, said Biden favors other forms of protectionism such as providing subsidies for American companies to reshore production activities to the U.S. or penalizing them for moving jobs overseas.
"Also, a Biden administration will very likely work closely with the U.S.'s traditional allies, which will probably be even less favorable for China," Wu said.
Others think American policy toward China will remain tense regardless of the election outcome.
China GDP growth headed for 5.2% in Q3 rebound: Nikkei survey
STELLA WONG and TAKESHI KIHARA, Nikkei staff writers
October 6, 2020 16:02 JST
HONG KONG -- China's economy likely expanded 5.2% in the July-September quarter as a policy-led recovery continues, with growth expected to accelerate from 3.2% during the April-June period, a survey by Nikkei and Nikkei Quick News found.
Though some economists express optimism that tariffs on Chinese goods will be reduced if former Vice President Joe Biden wins the American presidential election next month, others think the U.S.-China rivalry will continue regardless of the result of the vote.
China has largely contained the spread of the coronavirus, and the economy quickly returned to growth in the April-June period. The survey of 29 economists revealed that most expect July-September growth to expand further, with estimates for the third quarter ranging from 2.5% to 7.1%.
Ricky Choi, principal economist at Bank of China (Hong Kong), predicted that China's gross domestic product increased by 5.1% in the third quarter. The country's management of the COVID-19 outbreak likely will drive a rebound in consumption and production activities, he said.
"China is likely to be the only country to reach pre-crisis [economic] level by the end of 2020," said Sean Taylor, chief investment officer for Asia-Pacific at DWS. Its economy already has reached 80% of the level before the pandemic, he said.
Francoise Huang, senior economist for Asia-Pacific at Euler Hermes, was more optimistic. She forecast 5.5% growth for the third quarter, saying that China's exports have performed better than expected in the past few months due to strong external demand for Chinese medical products amid the pandemic.
"On the domestic side, while the recovery in consumption remains sluggish, the more policy-driven areas of the economy are proving dynamic -- particularly construction and infrastructure investment," she said.
Economists in the survey also estimated China's full-year GDP growth at 2.2%, up from a forecast of 1.6% in a survey conducted during June. They projected 7.8% growth for 2021 and 5.4% for 2022.
The economists generally believed that a victory by President Donald Trump in the November election would maintain or even intensify the heightened U.S.-China tensions over the next four years. Some forecast that the U.S. would cut tariffs on Chinese goods if Biden became president, likely benefiting China's exports in 2021.
Ken Chen, Chinese economy analyst at KGI Asia, thinks Biden also might withdraw some sanctions on Chinese tech companies if he wins, which would allow China's manufacturing industry to recover with more investments.
Christina Zhu, an economist at Moody's Analytics, agreed that a Biden win could signal a return to a multilateral approach in addressing trade issues through the World Trade Organization and other international frameworks, leading to a reduction in tariffs.
"Lower tariffs might not occur immediately, but over time as other issues are resolved through negotiations, tariffs would likely be reduced," she said.
But not all the economists agreed that a Biden victory would benefit China's economy.
Tommy Wu, lead economist at Oxford Economics, said Biden favors other forms of protectionism such as providing subsidies for American companies to reshore production activities to the U.S. or penalizing them for moving jobs overseas.
"Also, a Biden administration will very likely work closely with the U.S.'s traditional allies, which will probably be even less favorable for China," Wu said.
Others think American policy toward China will remain tense regardless of the election outcome.
It depends on which country you are talking about. With regards to Germany one of their main concerns is probably the possibility to operate in China independently instead of in a joint-venture like they had to do so far. The previous experience they had in sectors like high-speed rail probably left those industries with a bad taste in their mouth. I think they expected to extract more license fees than they did. There will also be people with concerns in the banking sector. But opening up the banking sector in China is potentially problematic. If China does do it, they should stick to it in a couple of special economic zones to try it out, it can be a can of worms. The world banking sector as is... is a cesspool so I think China is better off doing things their own way. But still, some people would like to be able to at least have some banking services from their banks of choice even if abroad.
For me, articles like these always make me wonder (or lament) why the hell China doesn't have counter initiative or policy, as if China is a statue, not a living country. Furthermore, all initiatives that are presumably used to counter China almost always depicted as rose-colored glasses while China's initiatives if any are depicted as some dumpster fire.
Remember HSBC, possibly becomes a shooting target for both China and the USA. Probably they should exclusively focus on Asia in the first place.
Hi gelgoog,
Because under Merkle, Germany had stagnated technologically, they rely to much on add improvement instead of innovating. A perfect example is EV cars, with regulation of phasing out fossil fuel car by 2030, they're in trouble especially if Chinese made EV cars matured.
If its areas like high speed rail and cars, I think its quite fine to open up. I think also that it will light a fire on china's domestic champions to not stagnate knowing they have the comfort of a home market. Say what you will, but I was very glad when Tesla went into the chinese EV market and started building MIC teslas there. I think it was an ultimatum to china's EV makers to step up thier game or China wasn't gonna subsidize these coddled industries the way india does forever. Frankly, I think BYD Han, and XPeng P7, and NIO also partially owe thier quality to a massive improvement drive from 2017 to 2020 that was basically the result of either innovate or die to Tesla. I'm all for China building global national champions, but they need to actually earn it through good products.
Agree the finance industry is a cesspool at the moment. For European's own sake, should probably keep this market off for now, although let europeans sell more products without having a JV is still reasonable, because again, the chinese banking system outside of Ant and wechat pay is pretty much a dinosaur.
Which is impossible. The current global supply chain placement is a natural result of decades of production/resource allocation refinement tuned to the max under a globalised world village post WW2. Capital will seek place that maximise their profit margin. Factory will be located in region that offer them competitive labour and a market that is setting the trend.
Looking at the concurrent situation of this globalised world, there are a few qns that we need to ask before looking at the case of a isolated and separate supply chain :
Is there any nation that can manage their domestic covid outbreak?
To have an isolated supply chain from China means your nation will not have any meaningful trade, be it import or export, with China. Is there any nation today that can afford not to have any trade with China yet retain a healthy prospect for future growth? Go check the report of F500 and see what the Chinese market mean to them in this upcoming decades.
While the competition between US and Japan is concentrated on high-end products like automobiles, CNC machines, the production relation is completely for that between China and US today. Today it is the US+Chinese capital that is doing the investment from the top side, and the intermediate part and processing needs to be done within the Chinese supply chain before being sold globally. Only then will the desire profit margin be realised for the investors. That is why GM, Tesla, Apple, Google, Vangard, Blackrock etc are all against the so -called separate supply chain movement pushed by the US admin.
Technically, one side can try to cut out China from the chain, but the cost to be paid is not one that any political entity can survive, esp for the US political system. Not only that, it will require long term(at least 20 years) political will to bear financial and economic damage and that is still not factoring in the financial offer the US needs to offer to nations to shore up their manufacturing competitiveness relative to China. And that is not factoring in the risk that these US companies might lose their edge upon shift and it will be the Chinese firms which will fight them over the global market share.
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The alternative to the current global system would be a separation of the world into spheres of influence.
But I doubt the US could have the same kind of sphere of influence it did enjoy after WW2.
The world economy is much different. The US isn't the sole provider of industrial goods while the rest of the world is ruined.
Even when we had the separation between US aligned and Soviet aligned countries there was still the non-aligned movement and at one point China was in a block by itself with a couple of minor partners.
China, if needs be, doesn't need the rest of the world, same deal for the US or Russia. These are large continental nations so you can run an economy pretty much by itself but it wouldn't be efficient and people's living standards would decrease immensely. In the case of China automobiles would become less common to reduce oil imports and energy usage globally while coal usage would increase. In the US you would see major price increases for common consumer goods decreasing purchasing power. Same deal would happen in Europe except there would be a similar energy crisis which I think could only be mitigated with the reintegration of nuclear power into the grid which would take two decades at least. But I doubt something like that will happen.
But I doubt the US could have the same kind of sphere of influence it did enjoy after WW2.
The world economy is much different. The US isn't the sole provider of industrial goods while the rest of the world is ruined.
Even when we had the separation between US aligned and Soviet aligned countries there was still the non-aligned movement and at one point China was in a block by itself with a couple of minor partners.
China, if needs be, doesn't need the rest of the world, same deal for the US or Russia. These are large continental nations so you can run an economy pretty much by itself but it wouldn't be efficient and people's living standards would decrease immensely. In the case of China automobiles would become less common to reduce oil imports and energy usage globally while coal usage would increase. In the US you would see major price increases for common consumer goods decreasing purchasing power. Same deal would happen in Europe except there would be a similar energy crisis which I think could only be mitigated with the reintegration of nuclear power into the grid which would take two decades at least. But I doubt something like that will happen.
The funny part is that this if done 2 decades ago would have spent doom for China but would have also run yahoo for the USA as well. But now if they really did this, not only will China be able to whether the storm with more countries willing to fill the gap (South America and Africa and even other nations in Europe) but this will spell doom for the USA for real as there system can only function due to being able to print money. If that was to be taken away and if they lose the chance for future investment (since how are they going to find employment for 50million unemployed) well the USA can’t be saved and it will not be in the best interest for other countries to bother saving them since that will help to open new pathways for there nations instead if they let the USA go down