Trade War with China

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Icmer

Junior Member
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I think it was a mistake to react this way. Liu He should have gone to the negotiation table with firm demands knowing that Trump has only put pressure on himself with that statement by setting himself up for a possible superficial victory if he ends up signing next week. Trump would gloat that he successfully used negotiation tactics to pressure the Chinese into a deal while his team was actually the one who was pressured by the dangling prospect of seeming triumphant. Liu He is under no such pressure from Chinese citizens because they all know he's dealing with a lunatic. Liu could have entered next week's talks with such an advantage but threatening to cancel talks misses that chance. Trump only knows how to respond to threats by upping the ante without even thinking about what he's saying because he's too worried about being perceived as weak to care about actual content (not that he's likely to understand all the actual content) of any agreement. By threatening Trump you walk into a deadlock but by using his own pressure against him and dangling the prospect of seeming victorious to the people, you can get Trump to concede the real meat of the agreement. I hope the CCP though it out better than I did and has a better plan...

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China Considers Canceling Trade Talks With U.S., WSJ Says
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Brendan Scott
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•May 5, 2019

You're assuming Trump is fully rational and understands the potential fallout if his intimidation tactics fail, which is doubtful given our knowledge of his negotiation ability and past failures. In other words, he's unlikely to accept further concessions in contrast to Lighthizer and Mnuchin. Suicide bomber mentality indeed. Trump has self-defeatingly blown up deals in the past, and it's unclear whether he's even aware of his own defeat.

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Donald Trump Soured on a Deal, and Hong Kong Partners Became Litigants

Supporters of Donald J. Trump waiting for him at a campaign rally in April in Bridgeport, Conn. He has often portrayed himself as uniquely capable of wringing concessions out of China.

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May 30, 2016

Donald J. Trump, who has made reversing America’s trade imbalance a pillar of his campaign, often portrays himself as uniquely capable of wringing concessions out of China through hard-nosed business tactics he has honed over the years.

In fact, he says, he has a personal track record to back up his boasts.

“I beat China all the time,” Mr. Trump declared
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the day he announced his candidacy. “I own a big chunk of the Bank of America building at 1290 Avenue of the Americas that I got from China in a war. Very valuable.”

Mr. Trump does have an investment in the building, an office tower near Rockefeller Center. But court documents and interviews with people involved in the deal tell a very different story of how he ended up with it.

It began when a group of Hong Kong billionaires, including one who has been called the Donald Trump of China, helped rescue Mr. Trump from the verge of bankruptcy by investing in one of his properties in Manhattan.
 

localizer

Colonel
Registered Member
I swear to god Trump and cronies are profiting off the cycles. They wait till people get euphoric and hit us with bad news. It's very well done and requires experienced economists/psychologists to plan this shit out.

I fell for this shit 3 times in my life losing significant amount of dough. They do this on purpose to transfer wealth from the small shareholders to the large ones.
 

ZeEa5KPul

Colonel
Registered Member
I swear to god Trump and cronies are profiting off the cycles. They wait till people get euphoric and hit us with bad news. It's very well done and requires experienced economists/psychologists to plan this shit out.
Sociopaths have a natural instinct for this sort of thing.
 

localizer

Colonel
Registered Member
Sociopaths have a natural instinct for this sort of thing.
It's just like the bitcoin peaks and the last couple peaks before tariff announcements. They have very experienced people planning this.

They had to pass the STOCK Act in 2012 before it was actually legal to do insider trading for government officials. Even now the lines are not very clear.

Also forget about making China comply with Iran now.
 
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You're assuming Trump is fully rational and understands the potential fallout if his intimidation tactics fail, which is doubtful given our knowledge of his negotiation ability and past failures. In other words, he's unlikely to accept further concessions in contrast to Lighthizer and Mnuchin. Suicide bomber mentality indeed. Trump has self-defeatingly blown up deals in the past, and it's unclear whether he's even aware of his own defeat.

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It is not a matter of whether Trump understands what he is doing, it is a matter of what his agenda really is. Not just Trump per se but the US powers-that-be are keen to maintain their domestic pecking order and grip on power which means both blaming others, preferably foreigners, for problems of their own making/handling as well as making life more difficult for the lower rungs of society so they can't afford to protest or rebel but fall in line instead. Trade war and even decoupling with China can serve both purposes. It is too soon to tell whether the US public and political system will be able to save themselves or whether they will completely succumb to this corruption, and how much of the cost the rest of the world will have to bear.
 

localizer

Colonel
Registered Member
It is not a matter of whether Trump understands what he is doing, it is a matter of what his agenda really is. Not just Trump per se but the US powers-that-be are keen to maintain their domestic pecking order and grip on power which means both blaming others, preferably foreigners, for problems of their own making/handling as well as making life more difficult for the lower rungs of society so they can't afford to protest or rebel but fall in line instead. Trade war and even decoupling with China can serve both purposes. It is too soon to tell whether the US public and political system will be able to save themselves or whether they will completely succumb to this corruption, and how much of the cost the rest of the world will have to bear.

I am 95% sure Trump is not behind these decisions right now. This is too well planned out for him. He hit the market when people are all buying into the market every time and got it right every time. I even suspect they're trying to buy out the Chinese market as well.
 

Xizor

Captain
Registered Member
LOL, didn't I said many many times walk away awhile back before all this. What do you know??
I can forsee this miles miles away.

If US really needs China goods then there wouldn't so much negotiation.

China just has to accept the fact that its goods aren't really crucially needed.
But it's markets are crucially needed by US companies to maintain the Wall Street numbers ticking. US needs Chinese markets a lot while China is slowly decreasing the need for the US markets.
 

Xizor

Captain
Registered Member
But it's markets are crucially needed by US companies to maintain the Wall Street numbers ticking. US needs Chinese markets a lot while China is slowly decreasing the need for the US markets.
If it was 2010 your point would have had some merit. But now? Bad timing dude. China has grown a wee bit too much to be seen as just an exporter economy.
 

Biscuits

Colonel
Registered Member
LOL, didn't I said many many times walk away awhile back before all this. What do you know??
I can forsee this miles miles away.

If US really needs China goods then there wouldn't so much negotiation.

China just has to accept the fact that its goods aren't really crucially needed.

Dude what’s up with this inane Washington cheerleading??

China just proved America had no choice by threatening to cut off negotiations.

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Face the reality of the situation.

Yeah, Chinese stocks also took a (much smaller) hit, but they represent 1% of GDP, not almost 100% of it.

If none of the goods are “crucially needed”, why are they constantly negotiating for unfair advantages in getting those goods? Why are they paying China more than China pays them? And why don’t they do like China has done, i.e. prepare to cut off negotiation?

Literally any country can plant stuff, it takes skill, infrastructure to make machinery and high end components. Just ask Tesla who is trying to get waivers.
 
LOL yesterday in the evening I knew
tidalwave
would soon appear to say something like this:
LOL, didn't I said many many times walk away awhile back before all this. What do you know??
I can forsee this miles miles away.

If US really needs China goods then there wouldn't so much negotiation.

China just has to accept the fact that its goods aren't really crucially needed.
 
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