Is China the regional power?

[crobato]

I think you over exaggerate the economic power of those grants. What, you think other countries are beggars that are happy to be given scraps on the table?

I kind of doubt the JSMDF can defeat the PLAN without getting heavily bloodied and at this point, the JASDF has behind the PLAAF when it comes to air support.

The real economic power in South East Asia, by the way, is neither China or Japan, but the entire body of Chinese diaspora, which constitute an economic upper class that dominates and controls much of the industry and investment of these countries. The diaspora alone is almost like a seperate Chinese nation by itself, like a country without a territory. What Japan gives to countries like the Philippines, Indonesia, Thailand, and Malaysia as grants is a mere pittance compared to the wealth the overseas Chinese can make and reinvests back to the economies.

 

[Sea Dog]

Is China THE regional power? I would say No. But they are indeed a regional power and very important in the Far East as a point of influence. Japan is also in the same category. While I hope this topic doesn't result in a Japan vs. China effect, we must acknowledge that Japan's economic indexes are still greater than China. Japan's per capita is much larger. China is growing economically and cannot be discounted in any way. Crobato is right in saying that China's citizens abroad wield much influence and economic might in it's own right. But Japan also has this condition of economic clout abroad. But so does South Korea, Taiwan, and the USA.

In terms of military, I will have to say that I do think PLAN is a good and capable force. But I would agree that Japan's Navy would defeat PLAN hands down. I've trained with Japanese units when I was in the 7th Fleet, and these guys are real good at what they do. Real professional. Those guys in the Harushio subs are a force in themselves to be reckoned with. In terms of size, quality, numbers, training, and overall fleet experience, Japan's Navy is tops in Asia. No question. I do agree that Japan's air component would have a much more difficult time however confronting the J-11's, J-10's, and Su-30's.

 

[SunTzu28]

No power is without limits. When I said that America is 'The power' it means that America has a significant lead over every other country in Asia in terms of every index of influence. That doesn't mean that it is almighty. N.Korea could not be persuaded to halt nuclear testing because military options are not available considering the extent of damage S.Korea would face if shit hits the fan. Vietnam is almost 40 years ago - are we talking about who's the superpower now or who's the superpower 40 years ago? America agreed to a One-China policy because America benefits from recognising such policy without it losing anything in return. America could force China to revaluate their yen - it's only a matter of how much they want to push it, and how much they are willing to suffer in retaliation. And all your points doesn't in any way prove that America is NOT the dominant power in the Pacific.

When you 'dominate a region' or country like you claim the US does you pretty much have power without limits or at least without the limits it appears America has at the moment. I never denied the US is a superpower, in fact they are probably more like a hyperpower at the moment. But if you know how and why they are on top and stay on top you'll know its because they don't 'dominate' other countries like powers in the past have done with colonizing and what not. They have learned from past powers and know that kind of dominance leads to a lot of hostility and a quicker downfall.

Btw, 'One-China' policy was a very significant acceptance politically, the US recognized the PRC as the legitimate government in China over the democratic Taiwan. You say none of my points prove the US isn't the dominant power but in cases like the yuan (not yen) and North Korea you basically say the US could do something but won't because it would lose too much, therefore making taking action not worth it. That in itself proves that other countries have signifcant leverage on the US. I admit the US has more leverage than their counterparts but not so much more that they are 'dominating.' I'm not going to argue much more on this, it seems we agree the US has vast power but disagree on whether that equates to them being 'dominating.'

Not exercising power is not power non-existent. They have a lot of economic influence in terms of investment capability. Those money they provide - whatever their reasons for providing them, that countries receive those money in turn gives Japan some influence over the beneficiaries. Japan has a dwarfed military? Japan's navy will beat PLAN senseless if it wishes to. And with Japan's military spending at just 1% of their GDP, they could ramp it up significantly if they so desired. Not exercising power is not power non-existent. Japan is an undeniable power in Asia.

I never said Japan is not a power in Asia just that alone without the US they aren't more influential than China. They can't just build up their military if they so desired like you claim. There is a constitution in Japan that forbids them having offensive capabilities in military, Shinzo Abe is trying to change that though it remains to be seen whether or not he'll succeed. And it is no understatement to say Japan's military is dwarfed, they pose no offensive threat to any country in the world. Today, WMD's and ICBM's are a far greater threat and military deterrence to other countries than any great navy, army, or airforce. Japan will probably never gain either as they are heavily against the use of nuclear weapons because they are the only country to be hit by one and other Asian countries and the US themselves will not allow Japan to gain offensive capabilities.

 

[Violet Oboe]

Interestingly our new member Kongo is constructing his argument around a string of fallacies which you can often perceive being used by japanese intellectuals heavily influenced by american neo conservative thinking. Obviously he is using (perceived or real, that does not matter) american power as a prothesis for japanese deficiencies and is portraying Japan as a beacon of exclusively american ethical and political values in Asia. Eventually the japanese of the 21st century are the better (asian)americans of our time and their destiny is bringing americanized/westernized progress to the entire backward Asia for the good of the whole mankind!

Unfourtunately the project is inevitably doomed since a resurgent and selfconfident China will evolve in a completely autonomous way and consequently japanese neocons are harboring negative emotions against the perceived ´spoiler´of their great future dream. Additionally the growing dependence on the US regarding Japan´s security, technology and political stability is creating a feeling of impotence in Japan´s elites who are getting more and more aware that this course (anti-china, anti-russia, anti-korea, anti everything which is not pro-US) will end in paralysis of almost all japanese strategic options.

P.S.:
Japan will not be able to build up her forces in way which would be necessary to challenge China simply because Japan with a net public debt amounting to a staggering 175% of GDP (in '06) would go broke by trying this. Former PM Koizumi Junichiro has introduced the process of Japan Post (banking, insurance and delivery divisions) privatization (between 2007-17) since the japanese state bitterly needs the resulting revenue for averting state bankruptcy! Consequently JSDF´s budget may be extended by some 5-10 $bn per year at the most (without a recession of course!) in the coming five years but this will certainly not scare anyone in Beijing. Although Japan has the (tech-wise) real option of going nuclear Wahington will never condone this since this would undermine the US´s hegemonic position in Asia decisively in the long run and Japan will never gain a position like UK or Israel on Capitol Hill since they simply have not the necessary entrenched lobby in place.
(Remember that the Saudi´s also thought they could buy influence in Washington with their petrodollars, today after they sunk hundreds of billions into the US they still stand no chance against ´tiny´ Israel´s real hard influence in any US administration!)

 

[adeptitus]

The PLAN had barely started receiving modern ships in 1990s, any assumption that it's on even playing field with Japanese navy or USN is just plain silly. The Japanese has been operating Kongo-class destroyers since 1991, the PLAN back then only had Luda's, with Luhu's under construction.

Wha tis uncertain, is the future. Japan has a lead, but we don't know if they can maintain the lead, and for how long. Japan is facing some serious demographic and workforce trend changes. Longer lifespan, coupled with lower birth rate, has resulted in a growing elderly population that would some day hold the state pension/welfare system hostage, preventing needed reforms. But this is a military forum, so I'll stop here.

The question to ask is, will the Japanese government be able to allocate funds to afford a modern (and expensive) military force in 20 years? If we look at history, a nation/empire/civilization's decline usually starts internally, long before barbarians are given the opportunity to sack Rome. For the PLAN to surpass the Japanese Navy, there will be 2 requirements. The first is the rise of PLAN, and the second is the gradual erosion of the Japanese Navy. It's too early to tell at this point.

 

[crobato]

Some people should get out more often. Back when I visited China for sightseeing in the nineties, we already noted that many rural areas had many roads under construction. Since then, and that's been for years now, they have been completed, and more and more of the rural is starting to look like downtown. Kind of starting to mirror what the New Territories in the Hong Kong SAR used to look like.

Interestingly our new member Kongo is constructing his argument around a string of fallacies which you can often perceive being used by japanese intellectuals heavily influenced by american neo conservative thinking. Obviously he is using (perceived or real, that does not matter) american power as a prothesis for japanese deficiencies and is portraying Japan as a beacon of exclusively american ethical and political values in Asia. Eventually the japanese of the 21st century are the better (asian)americans of our time and their destiny is bringing americanized/westernized progress to the entire backward Asia for the good of the whole mankind!

Actually Chinese people are doing a good job 'americanizing' themselves without the help of anyone outside. The Chinese landscape is becoming more and more like urban America---lots of nice fast roads, big malls everywhere, fast food joints in every corner, cars all around.

 

[Violet Oboe]

Well, in the end the CPC guys are certainly watching out that ´Americanization´ in mainland China does not go too far!:nono:

Indeed imitation of US popular (or vulgar?!) culture is prolific in China even in rural regions but after all this is quite superficial since eating a chicken in a KFC or driving a nice BMW car leaves you 100% chinese if your your thinking is staying authentically indigenous. The situation in Japan is quite different because the japanese emulated after 1945 the US political, ethical, economical (effectively only in the last 15 years) and to a certain degree also the cultural system and this created eventually some kind of hybride society.

I agree with you dear crobato that the chinese leadership has to be more aware about China´s cultural tradition and that they have to do much more for preservation of the things that have made China unique. American´s have produced a distinctive image of their country and they propagate that image tirelessly around the globe through a media campaign brainwashing a billion of people every day. Actually the US corporate media are one of the main export industries of the country and without their revenue the US current account would be even more in the red figures. (Perhaps US media play a decisive role in inducing people worldwide to invest their hard earned money in the US ??)

China needs to develop a comprehensive image of herself by developing a professional media industry which will be able to export chinese produced content globally. India is very successful recently in portraying herself positively in the west and China can only learn from impressive indian media skills. Forming partnerships with indian companies in the media would be good start for speeding up progress in China´s media sector.

 

[The_Zergling]

China needs to develop a comprehensive image of herself by developing a professional media industry which will be able to export chinese produced content globally. India is very successful recently in portraying herself positively in the west and China can only learn from impressive indian media skills. Forming partnerships with indian companies in the media would be good start for speeding up progress in China´s media sector.

What's interesting here is that in a sense China would actually have to somehow "create" a new image of herself. Ironically the places that have preserved traditional Chinese culture and values are South Korea, Japan, and Taiwan.

I don't know what direction the leaders would want China to go in, as old Confucian values especially notions of class have lost much visibility, on the other hand the ideology of Maoist days aren't all that popular either.

 

[crobato]

That's true. Taiwan, South Korea, Japan, and we must not forget places like Singapore and overseas Chinese enclaves in Malaysia, Indonesia, Thailand and the Philippines---all appeared to have preserved traditional Chinese culture better.

The thing is, it's all the Communists doing. In their effort to reengineer Chinese society to Maoist concepts, they had to stamp out traditional Chinese cultural values and norms, including religion, traditions, ethics, etc,. Once a vacuum is made, Maoist values are intended to fill that hole.

But once the Maoists are gone, so is their cultural infrastucture. Once that collapses, you leave a massive cultural vacuum, and this is filled up by the American Dream, or its subvariation, the live-rich Hongkong Dream, augmented by watching Taiwanese and South Korean soap operas.

 

[wdl1976]

It is interesting with the americanisation thing, I recalled watching the telly some years ago, interviews with the Chinese University protestor in the Tiananmen era. I believed when asked what do they want, a student said that they want Adidas shoes, MacDonalds etc etc. I believed they are saying more like a China that opens to the world and embraces all the "going on things".

But from my personal point of view, for a country to advance it cannot lose it's self identity. Which is culture preservation. Remembering where they come from and who they are. Take Japan for instance, they are able to progress but never forget who they are.

Current China gusto in adapting foreign culture seemed to have compromised their own culture and self identity.

When trying to adopt other culture they would deemed their own culture as inferior and the adapted culture as superior which leads to the belief that they themselves is inferior.

Unfortunately in order to take the lead you need self confidence, a feeling that you are superior.