Equation
Lieutenant General
I just read that article as well. Dang you beat me to it by posting it before I did.
Chinese Economics Thread
- Thread starter Norfolk
- Start date
I just read that article as well. Dang you beat me to it by posting it before I did.
vesicles
Colonel
People at the time of industrial revolution might have also thought the same way, as the machines had become so immensely more powerful than before. I don't think we have changed the game fundamentally. No matter how advanced the robots become, they are still tools. Even in a scenario of machines achieving singularity, we are simply increasing the population of intelligent beings. It's still fundamentally the same as we are now.
Not necessarily. Advanced tools usually make using them easier. I have no idea how my smart phone works, but that doesn't prevent me from taking advantage of its powerful features. In my line of work, I depend heavily on advanced microscopes. Yet, I have only very basic understanding of microscopy. To be honest, the last time I saw the inside of a microscope was when I was in grad school. that however has not stopped me from using them to test my hypotheses and get beautiful images of cells to wow people.
About salaries, I think you are looking at it the wrong way. Instead, you should compare the education level of minimum salary people 100 years ago vs. same group now.
In the 1900's when automobile began to show up, horse-drawn carriages started to disappear. Many drivers of those carriages lost their jobs. The flexible ones then found other jobs and trained themselves to become experts of something else. Those who refused to change eventually ended up as homeless... The same will happen to those truck drivers when all trucks become self-driven. It's about how individuals invent and re-invent themselves to fit the ever-changing world, not about how the world revolves around a few stubborn individuals.
This is actually the same even for highly educated people. As your field advances, you need to keep training yourself to keep up. Imagine a doctor who got his MD in the 80's. Would he still be able to practice now without further training? Absolutely no! that's why all advanced licenses and certificates require continued education. You need to attend classes and training session to keep up with the field. Scientific research is the same. Many need to change their field of focus completely because their original field has matured to a level, where they no longer need many researchers. Then except a few leaders, all others would need to change to completely new fields. Then we would need to re-train ourselves again. This happens a lot.
The problem with the current political and economic environment in the US is that the entire economic and political policies focus on accommodating those who refuse to change. Bringing back manufacturing jobs is a good example of this. Instead of marching forward to the 21st century, we are trying to move backward to the 19th century when everyone worked in a factory, doing manual labor. That's just sad.
In my opinion, the focus should be on providing new training to those who used to be in manufacturing and on fostering development of new industries that take advantages of the high tech strength of the US. Now, we are trying so hard to compete with the poor third-world countries for cheap manual labor, while ignoring our own shining advantages. It's like Usain Bolt trying to become a weight lifter. His strength is speed. Focus on your own strength!
Last edited:
Blackstone
Brigadier
Equation
Lieutenant General
You trust a blogger with anti China perspective for this? If he is so emotionally distress and dramatic about it, he should wanna talk about corruption to the extreme by just looking at the Trump administrations.
I already respond to this post of your the first time, and I explain why AI and automation is going to be a game changer than all the changes than before, your logic is base on the assumption that it has happened before and it will happen again, but it simply does not work that way, please re-read what I wrote in detail. What I'm trying to say this time it will be different. And I didn't even dare to use the word "singularity" if we achieve that, you will be looking at something far worse, and lack of jobs is going to be least of our concerns.
Again... please re-read my posts, this revolution that is happening is is NOT only going to be about better tools, this time the changes will be about creating tools that don't just make whatever we have better/easier/more powerful, this time it will be about making tools that make entire range of traditional job automated. And yes, base on the description of your job should probably be safe for now, because it sound like whatever you do is very specialized, and I bet it takes some schooling and hard work to get to where you are, but the thing is you are not everyone, you are not even the majority of 2/3 of US population with no college degree, I'm talking about those people that will suffer the most.
I'm not compare life 100 years ago to life today, I'm comping life in the 1950-1970s to today. And the economic system starting to collapse.
Again, very traditional way of thinking, and what was true before don't mean it will still follow the same pattern, but again, how many people will actually keep go retraining when their field dried up? You are assuming people who already have good jobs and needs to retrain to keep up with the progress, I'm talking about the mass of population that never really receive any kind of advanced degree in the first place or ever had any decent job in the first place, what is going to happen to them? And what is going to happen to nations like India that don't even have much higher educated population to begin in the first place? Your assumption have way too many luxury that you assume is ready taken granted.
And lastly, why don't you tell me that over the past 30 years or so, why is the minimum wage jab salary has been declining in respect to purchase power, while the high paying jobs has more then keep up with inflation?
Don't you think as time goes on, those people will became even less valuable in the future? And what is the answer to them? Go back to school and relearn? Please remember, we are talking about well over 66% of US population age 25 or older that does not have 4 year degree. Telling each one of them go to back to school is not going to happen.
And why do you think this trend is happening? Why are low skilled labor is getting less valuable... might that have to do with.... I don't know, automation?
Blackstone
Brigadier
The story is from a "Chinese-language Overseas Chinese Daily Qiaobao," so the trust part isn't with Cowhig's blog. But, if your question is do I believe PRC corruption fighters might themselves be corrupt? My answer is I do, I do indeed.
Equation
Lieutenant General
That applies to anywhere in the world. Especially here in the US as well. Heck the Trump administration is just the tip of the corrupt ice berg.
broadsword
Brigadier
I hope Jared and Ivanka do not drop the ball with ethics. They are a rational couple and potential future US leaders.
vesicles
Colonel
For those who have never had good training, they should think about getting one in time of change. This is not limited to highend jobs. My own grandpa was a farmer during the WWII in China. When farmig became impossible in time of war, he became a miner and started working in a coal mine. Coal mining needs a completely different set of skills than farming. My grandpa never learned how to read and only knew what his own name "looked like" in Chinese. Yet, in time of change, he adapted. We should be flexible enough to adapt to different situations.
I have read your post. Again, my point is that what we have here is simply a quantitative improvement in productivity, not a qualitative one.
If you keep insisting that what we are seeing now is something fundamentally different than before, then we'll just have to agree to disagree.