Crisis in the Ukraine

[delft]

No, we have reports from the Russians of SU25, in point of fact the Russians went out of there way to classify the aircrafts make. We have holes of a type distributed across a section of cockpit material and we have a unsubstantiated claim made by a individual with no access to the wreckage using photographs to claim bullet holes.

we have a narrative that says that it was a attack by both missile and or aircraft. And as to the extent of how many are involved. If you want your false flag you have to have both the missile crew and the aircraft. You have to have the flight controller directing the MH17. You have to have the people who maintain the aircraft because they don't just sit it out and polish the canopy. They also arm the bird fuel it and are involved in the avionics like the flight data recorder and gun camera which would record the whole thing. the Americans and NATO who are watching the Air Space over the Ukraine. You have to have all the ground interception direction for the Radar less Su25 directing the interception and attack. You have to have all the other radar operators in the area either silenced or ignoring the operation. Nothing happens in a vacuum. And the more people are in on something the more likely a leak unless you think they are all in a ditch by the road but that would need more then just the pilot to be laying in it. All it would take is to have a flight mechanic show up and say "Hello, on such and such a day I fixed this on a Su25 and I pulled this chunk of Mh17 from the wing. Or I saw Col so and so take off that day but without a single bomb only fuel air to air missiles and bullets. fly to the east then I heard about this airliner crash when he landed he was trailing wires and his gun was empty."

Just two remarks:
US and NATO are watching and if the aircraft was shot down by the federalists or Russia they would have published evidence instead of easily forged social network messages.
To shoot down an airliner with an aircraft using cannon fire you don't approach from the direction of the Sun. You do that in a classical fighter to fighter shoot out. To attack an airliner you fly behind and below it and target an engine or the cockpit.

 

[delft]

NATO is screaming about Russia being about to invade Ukraine. But it can't really object to Russia providing weapons and munitions to the federalists or declare a non-fly zone and attack the Ukrainian army similar to what NATO did when it destroyed Libya.

 

[delft]

If Russia close off their airspace to the airlines of these countries couldn't the airlines fly the southern route which is just a little big longer? The extra cost would just be passed to the flying customers as per usual.

I don't think such spitting into each other's eyes would do anyone any good since like it or not, Russia and the west are tied to each other in a global economy. It's one thing to apply sanctions to Iran or Cuba but a totally different fish doing that to Russia, which is both large importer and exporter.

The routes North and South of Siberia are more than a little bit longer, some three hours. There are the extra costs from fuel, from the decreased utility of the aircraft, from the longer working time of the cabin crew leading to an extra paid rest day, etc.And you can't raise the ticket prices because many Asian companies will not be affected. Already Gulf country airlines like Etihat are offering lower prices flying over the Middle East. This would be killing European airlines if it lasted many months. Air France-KLM is particularly vulnerable.

 

[SampanViking]

Irrespective, the holes in the cockpit fuselage exist and the implications of their existence is damning.

As to why would anyone use a wholly unsuited aircraft at an altitude and for a role it was intended to be used for? I would say that simply to muddy the waters of credibility is good enough. The SU25 may not be the plane of choice, but it can complete such a mission and shooting down an unsuspecting airliner is hardly a challenge.

My interest is drawn equally by the calculated trajectory of the doomed aircraft, had the pilots not executed their final 180 degree turn. Had they continued on their original trajectory the plane would have landed smack in the middle of the then Southern Cauldron in territory adjacent to the Russian border but still under Ukrainian military control.

This is territory over which the Ukrainians had claimed that not only were militia SAM's attacking Ukrainian military aircraft, but a territory over which the Ukrainians had accused Russia of an Air to Air kill of one of its own aircraft, less than 24 hours before the crash.

So we now have a growing body of expert and eyewitness testimony which supports a air to air shoot down theory

We have an original crash site trajectory which would be very convenient for Kiev and its backers

We have the data released by Russia four days after the crash

We still have no data; three weeks on, from any other country that claims to have evidence

Constant administrative and security delays in reaching the actual Crash site on account of Ukrainian Government action, that is now on the record as being the policy until such time as Ukrainian forces take control of the area.

We are still waiting after two weeks for the release of the black box recordings (The boxes from the Algerian Airliner that crashed in Africa the following day had its boxes found and details released within a couple of days of recovery).

Yesterday's blocking of the Russian sponsored UN resolution by the US, Lithuania and Australia, to demand the re-establishment of the previously agreed cease fire around the site.

There are quite a few dots of this story to join together and the emerging picture looks highly questionable to say the least.

 

[SampanViking]

Cauldron update.

It seems that the Cauldron is not yet dead and that there is still a large force trying to break out.
These troops have broken north and appear to be fighting over the town of Miusinsk, which would give them access to main supply highway to Donetsk.

Further to the West, a relief offensive is stuck fighting over the high ground and highly symbolic Soviet War Memorial of Saur-Mogila

Both these situations are highly fluid, but the break out forces at Miusinsk seem to be in the same disorderd state as those that broke out West yesterday. Indeed it seems that these forces failed to escape via the same action and are in little more than a state of rout.

 

[Mr T]

So we now have a growing body of expert and eyewitness testimony which supports a air to air shoot down theory

Sorry, I dispute that. So far I've heard of unverified reports and comments from a retired commercial airline pilot who I'm not aware has any useful military experience.

It's also still the case that there was no reason for the Ukrainians to have shot down the plane. Don't forget, the Ukrainians have broadly been winning in the east and were winning before the plane was shot down. They had very little to gain and everything to lose by shooting down a civilian plane.

Coupled with the rebels' immediate attempts to lock down the area and prevent experts from accessing it closely, I'm still going with the drunk/incompetent rebel missile battery conclusion.

 

[SampanViking]

Sorry, I dispute that. So far I've heard of unverified reports and comments from a retired commercial airline pilot who I'm not aware has any useful military experience.

It's also still the case that there was no reason for the Ukrainians to have shot down the plane. Don't forget, the Ukrainians have broadly been winning in the east and were winning before the plane was shot down. They had very little to gain and everything to lose by shooting down a civilian plane.

Coupled with the rebels' immediate attempts to lock down the area and prevent experts from accessing it closely, I'm still going with the drunk/incompetent rebel missile battery conclusion.

Well I have to disagree and dispute with you.
All the links to the various pieces are already in this thread and should not be too hard to find. I am moving house this weekend so my time online is very limited. If other members are feeling charitable, maybe they will be kind enough to repost them for you.

Re accounts at odds with militia shoot down.

1) Russian Defence Ministry Date and Telemetry
2) Eyewitness testimony by OSCE official on site at crash since incident occoured.
3) Removed BBC Russian Service video with eyewitness accounts of aerial shootdown
4 & 5 Two expert testimonies now in the public domain

This stands against unsupported opinion that the "rebels probably did it".

If this was football, I doubt anyone would dispute the meaning of a 5 nil score!

Had the MH17 continued on its onward trajectory, it would have crashed within the Southern Cauldron, this would be Ukrainian controlled and the international pressure would have been to have unblocked the troops and give Kiev and major strategic victory in isolating the militia from the Russian border. This did not happen and we are seeing the consequences of that as we speak, with a major unfolding military disaster for the Ukrainian army.

Again, all verifiable from official on this thread.
It was not the rebels that blocked access to the site.
Kiev started a major offensive against Donetsk, the very day that the OSCE led Forensic mission arrived in the city, Kiev also launched the major offensive against the towns/cities within the Ceasefire zone of Shayktorsk and Torez soon after. Causing endless delays in the full mission arriving and staying on site.

Seperately, we have a BBC video interview with the head of the Air Crash Investigation team, saying plainly, 10 days after the crash, that they were unable to leave Kiev as the Ukrainian government had not yet authorised their mission on their territory.

On July 17th, there was no fighting within 50 miles of the crash site. It was a deliberate decision of the Ukrainian leadership to launch a directed offensive that changed that. It was the backers of Kiev that blocked the Russian UN resolution to demand a halt to the fighting and reinstate the Cease Fire yesterday.

 

[delft]

We need material evidence to determine how MH17 was destroyed, by Buk missile with the Su-25 observing or by the Su-25, but the circumstancial evidence, i.e. the quality of the "evidence" produced by US, the conduct of Kiev in delaying the investigation by two weeks and now interrupting it, all point to Kiev as the guilty party. The evidence of yesterday's episode in the Security Council is just valuable confirmation.

 

[Dannhill]

1. Winning in the east is highly subjective depending on wgich news source you are referring to.

2. Can you provide quote from investigators that it was the separatists who were holding up the investigators from visiting the crash site?
What I have read from these investigators have pretty much exonerated the separatists. Still, I would like to see your references.

3. Re the old civilian pilot, please read further up on one if my replies quoting a video of an OSCE monitor mentioning the bullet holes that he sw for himself.

The Malaysian news quoted his comment.

So it's not just a burnt out old pilot having dreams.

Sorry, I dispute that. So far I've heard of unverified reports and comments from a retired commercial airline pilot who I'm not aware has any useful military experience.

It's also still the case that there was no reason for the Ukrainians to have shot down the plane. Don't forget, the Ukrainians have broadly been winning in the east and were winning before the plane was shot down. They had very little to gain and everything to lose by shooting down a civilian plane.

Coupled with the rebels' immediate attempts to lock down the area and prevent experts from accessing it closely, I'm still going with the drunk/incompetent rebel missile battery conclusion.

 

[Air Force Brat]

Sorry, I dispute that. So far I've heard of unverified reports and comments from a retired commercial airline pilot who I'm not aware has any useful military experience.

It's also still the case that there was no reason for the Ukrainians to have shot down the plane. Don't forget, the Ukrainians have broadly been winning in the east and were winning before the plane was shot down. They had very little to gain and everything to lose by shooting down a civilian plane.

Coupled with the rebels' immediate attempts to lock down the area and prevent experts from accessing it closely, I'm still going with the drunk/incompetent rebel missile battery conclusion.

sadly, we have some of our own forum mates flying their own "false flag", these posts will come back to haunt the "owners", I hope these fellows "man up" when the evidence is presented??? doubt it????