China and North Korea: What Can China Do?

[Finn McCool]

The US just delayed the voting on a UN resolution that will put sanctions on North Korea for its various misbehaviors to allow China more time to put diplomatic pressure on North Korea. What kind of pressure can China bring to bear? Will it persuade North Korea to give up its nukes? Does China even want North Korea to give up its nuclear weapons? Lastly, if China is able to solve the Korth Korea problem, something that the US, Japan, and the entire international community have not been able to do, what will the effects be for China's standing in the world?

 

[AssassinsMace]

Contrary to what you hear from the Western press, there's a very legtimate reason why China is dragging its feet on action on North Korea. Fist of all sanctions on the scale the West wants would send tens of thousands of North Korean refugees fleeing into China. A military conflict would probably send the number into the millions. Since Russia shares a small border with North Korea as well, that's probably why they're against action too.

 

[DPRKPTboat]

I often wonder just how much influence China has on North Korea. It encouraged the DPRK to reform its economy in 2001 Chinese-style, but the DPRK didn't push those reforms far enough like it promised. Just before the missile tests, Kim-Jong-Il promised the Chinese he would not test the missile, as Chinese delegations told him not to. But he did it anyway. Kim is belligerent even to his allies. In my opinion, he awnsers to no-one now - he only cares about preserving his regime. China could cut aid, but he will probably try to get it back from them with his usual brinksmanship tactics. So I don't think the Chinese will remain patient with him forever - they might just side with the U.S. in the end if Kim does not change his ways.

 

[akinkhoo]

i think china will side with south korea's approach instead of US. if north korean fall apart in the near future, it might be possible for china to shift a unified korea away from US. a united korea on a loose agreement with china to more pressure against japanese's claim against them. possible?

 

[DPRKPTboat]

i think china will side with south korea's approach instead of US. if north korean fall apart in the near future, it might be possible for china to shift a unified korea away from US. a united korea on a loose agreement with china to more pressure against japanese's claim against them. possible?

It does seem like the likely scenario, and it very will could be at this moment, but I think the situation is starting to get more complicated. In his meeting with a DPRK diplomat in Bejing, Hu Jintao's rhetoric sounded very frustrated and concerned. He told the North to refrain from provocative actions and come back to talks. According to thios article, the Chinese are starting to put pressure on them, and as I have sais, the Chinese have started to get fed up with NK in recent years. Heres the article, though I'm starting to wonder just how reliable MSNBC is:

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[Spartan95]

Seems that DPRK has decided to set up an economic zone on the Yalu river along its border with PRC:

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North Korea to set up economic zone on China border
Posted: 07 June 2011 0059 hrs

SEOUL: North Korea announced on Monday it would set up an economic zone on two islands on the border with China, just days after leader Kim Jong-Il returned from a trip to study his neighbour's dramatic economic rise.

Pyongyang "decided to set up the Hwanggumphyong and Wihwa Islands Economic Zone in order to boost the DPRK-China friendship and expand and develop the external economic relations", the official Korean Central News Agency said.

The two islands in the estuary of the Yalu river which runs along the border have long been tapped as a joint economic development zone between North Korea and China, the South's Yonhap news agency said.

The brief KCNA dispatch said the zone would be under North Korean sovereignty.

The announcement comes shortly after Kim returned on May 27 from his third trip in just over a year to China, his country's sole major ally and economic lifeline.

Beijing has called for a Chinese-style opening-up of North Korea's crumbling state-directed economy.

Chinese Premier Wen Jiabao had said Kim was invited to study China's dramatic economic development in the hope he would use the knowledge to revive his own country's economy.

According to Chinese accounts of the visit, Kim told President Hu Jintao that the North "is currently focusing its efforts on economic development and we really need a stable environment for this".

The North's economy is beset by serious shortages of electricity and raw materials and it grapples with persistent serious food shortages. International sanctions imposed to curb its missile and nuclear programmes have discouraged foreign investment.

- AFP/de

Looks like PRC's effort to convince DPRK to undertake economic reforms are bearing fruit. Hopefully this economic development initiative will be successful and contribute to better living standards for its population.

 

[siegecrossbow]

Seems that DPRK has decided to set up an economic zone on the Yalu river along its border with PRC:

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Looks like PRC's effort to convince DPRK to undertake economic reforms are bearing fruit. Hopefully this economic development initiative will be successful and contribute to better living standards for its population.

Wow so Kim Jong Il is finally caving in? Wonder if his son had anything to do with it.

 

[kyanges]

Didn't they already have some sort of zone or zones set up with SK before? I'm not clear on the specifics.

 

[vesicles]

Wow so Kim Jong Il is finally caving in? Wonder if his son had anything to do with it.

My impression is that Kim has been talking about some kind of economic zone for some time now. So I am not sure he's actually doing it.

About possible tactics. I don't think China wants NK to have nukes. First of all, it's always wise not to share any secret weapons with anyone. Allies can become enemies in no time. No matter how close China is with any of its potential allies, China only wants itself to have nukes if it has any choice. There is no reason for China to want NK to have nukes. Secondly, letting NK have nukes would push SK and Japan to start their nuke programs, which is definitely not what China wants. Plus, having a potentially unstable neighbor with nukes is also not a good thing. So no matter what, China does not want NK to have nukes.

IMHO, one thing China can do now is to bite its time and wait 'til the old Kim goes away, which won't be long. His son should be a lot easier to manipulate. I'm sure China would bride some NK officials close to the young Kim so that Kim can become some kind of a puppet. One huge weakness of the hereditary system that NK (or ancient China and other parts of the world) is that later generations of a powerful leaders are usually spoiled and become weaker and weaker both politically and character-wise. This happens to every dynasty in China's ancient history and in the West as well. I'm sure the same trend would hold in NK.

or China could start a coup and put a China-friendly Kim in the throne. I think China has the capability to pull it off.

 

[AssassinsMace]

Been down this road before and Kim nixed the plan before it started. Maybe the difference this time is he's desperate.