2026 Israel-US vs. Iran conflict [Military updates/News Only]

[Minm]

Closing the Bab el Mandab is not that big of a deal. Because, as you said, ships can simply come through the Suez Canal and go back the same way. Hormuz is a real chokepoint cause there is no way out.

Paying slightly more fuel cost for shipping and going a bit more longer distance is a much better deal than not having any ability to go out.

You have to think about the transit time though. Shipping through suez, around Africa to Asia adds 3 weeks of extra transit time plus extra fuel burned for shipping. At current Saudi red sea exports of 4 million barrels per day, that's about 80-100 million barrels that will have to be taken out of reserves to make up for the three week gap. And that's assuming that Yemen won't send the occasional drone to strike Saudi ports and ships.

The point at which OECD reserves run dry is approaching quickly

 

[sheogorath]

You have to think about the transit time though. Shipping through suez, around Africa to Asia adds 3 weeks of extra transit time plus extra fuel burned for shipping. At current Saudi red sea exports of 4 million barrels per day, that's about 80-100 million barrels that will have to be taken out of reserves to make up for the three week gap. And that's assuming that Yemen won't send the occasional drone to strike Saudi ports and ships.

The point at which OECD reserves run dry is approaching quickly

There is also the size issue as not all tankers can transit the Suez, the top range of tankers that can go through carry around 1M barrels. Anything bigger than than, needs to go through Bab el Mandab, which likely means another outpub bottleneck, provided the Yemenis don't target the pipelines and ports themselves.

 

[siegecrossbow]

There is also the size issue as not all tankers can transit the Suez, the top range of tankers that can go through carry around 1M barrels. Anything bigger than than, needs to go through Bab el Mandab, which likely means another outpub bottleneck, provided the Yemenis don't target the pipelines and ports themselves.

View attachment 178535

Maximum capacity of Suez Canal is about 5 million barrels of crude in transit per day. That’s no where near enough to make up for the shortfall.

 

[ACuriousPLAFan]

There is also the size issue as not all tankers can transit the Suez, the top range of tankers that can go through carry around 1M barrels. Anything bigger than than, needs to go through Bab el Mandab, which likely means another outpub bottleneck, provided the Yemenis don't target the pipelines and ports themselves.

Maximum capacity of Suez Canal is about 5 million barrels of crude in transit per day. That’s no where near enough to make up for the shortfall.

In the meantime, the IRGC and Houthis probably don't even need to target the Suez Canal itself. Just keep targeting the ships that are in the Red Sea and make that sea bottled between Suez and Mandab as treacherous to navigate for civilian shipping as possible, such that the Suez Canal would be rendered inoperative on its own.

 

[siegecrossbow]

In the meantime, the IRGC and Houthis probably don't even need to target the Suez Canal itself. Just keep targeting the ships that are in the Red Sea and make that sea bottled between Suez and Mandab as treacherous to navigate for civilian shipping as possible, such that the Suez Canal would be rendered inoperative on its own.

They don’t need to even shoot a lot of missiles. Just hit one or two tankers when they get board and let insurance premium take care of the rest.

 

[protonme18]

The ammo for the interceptors need around 2-9 days for Air freight to ship to destination/restocking. Plus installation etc. Again, I would tell the IRGC, play the game using your own tempo, take out whatever still hangars, radome, warehouses still standing in Jordan/Kuwait and blast them to kingdom come. You have to make sure, whatever operation, air or land or support from these 2 country is neglible for the Americans. You really have to blast them open as basically they are bases of Israelis and US forces to conduct military operation against you.

Better prepare and distribute the drones/missiles to regional command for concentrated war incoming. The louder the "ceasefire" or "diplomacy" noises you heard....you better doubly prepared for the next round.

They are buying time for ceasefire....

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“There’s some hope of de-escalation between the US and Iran. Reports are that mediators are proposing a 10-day ceasefire, which could put the memorandum of understanding [MoU] back on track,” ING analysts said in a note, referring to the interim deal negotiated in ‌June.

 

[Jaroslav]

They don’t need to even shoot a lot of missiles. Just hit one or two tankers when they get board and let insurance premium take care of the rest.

That or attack Saudi Red sea export ports

 

[Anlsvrthng]

80% of saudi export goes to Asia.
Means the Suez Canal is as usefull as the discovery of a new seven legged spider species for them .

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This is getting serious. Whats the alternative for Saudi Arabia? Sending ship through Suez Canal ?

 

[subotai1]

80% of saudi export goes to Asia.
Means the Suez Canal is as usefull as the discovery of a new seven legged spider species for them .

Its not about where the oil is going. The real issue is that the Saudis have 2 primary places to load oil. Most on the gulf side, a little more in the Red Sea. So unless the Saudis quickly build a pipeline through Oman (won't happen), they are corked up.

 

[siegecrossbow]

Its not about where the oil is going. The real issue is that the Saudis have 2 primary places to load oil. Most on the gulf side, a little more in the Red Sea. So unless the Saudis quickly build a pipeline through Oman (won't happen), they are corked up.

View attachment 178543

You are already seeing the effects.

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