J-20 5th Gen Fighter Thread VIII
- Thread starter Blitzo
- Start date
Moreover, Anshan First Aviation Brigade also received J-35A
With the first J-20A WS-10C2 units spotted in service colours and the first J-20A WS-15 units launching from CAC plants, what do we think is the final production total of vanilla J-20?
IIRC, the last accurate assessment we had was 350x J-20 in 2024, with an estimated annual production of 100 airframes a year. By mid-2026 when we can assume new production has shifted primarily to J-20A (still split between the last of the WS-10C2 and first WS-15 variants, and total production capacity shared with J-20S), would an estimate of ~500x J-20 be reasonable?
IIRC, the last accurate assessment we had was 350x J-20 in 2024, with an estimated annual production of 100 airframes a year. By mid-2026 when we can assume new production has shifted primarily to J-20A (still split between the last of the WS-10C2 and first WS-15 variants, and total production capacity shared with J-20S), would an estimate of ~500x J-20 be reasonable?
That's too much, we know by early 2025 most if not all CAC production were J-20A hence it is likely J-20 production winded down sometime during 2024.
500 would be reasonable for total J-20/A/S count but J-20 likely only numbers in the low 400s or high 300s.
Extrapolating from this, if 500 is reasonable for total J-20/A/S of which 400 is J-20 vanilla, then there are 100 airframes of J-20A/S.
Given how J-20A WS-15 was only spotted flying out of CAC in 2026 and its currently mid-2026, then there should have been roughly 1 year production run (2025-2026) of J-20A/S WS-10C2. So we're looking at <100 airframes (probably ~66) of J-20A/S WS-10C2.
I know these are all very speculative "back of the envelope" calculations, but it should at least give us something to work with.
Does anyone know roughly how many vanilla J-20 AF-31F (+AF-31FM2?) airframes there were? This would be the LRIP batches from ~2016 to ~2020 before the full transition to WS-10C and full-rate production happened.
A further question is if/when will the WS-10s on those ~400 aircraft will be replaced with WS-15 engines.
The partially used WS-10 engines can still be usefully reused by CCAs.
---
Note that a new F-135 engine (used in the F-25) costs $20 Million whilst a new F-110 engine (used by the F-15/16) costs $8 Million. The F-135 does have 52% more thrust, but I don't see the extra cost being justified for a CCA-sized aircraft and its missions.
Last edited:
antiterror13
Brigadier
These AL-31 engines were strictly an interim solution. China needed to get the initial production batches of the J-20 off the ground and into early service during the 2010s, but their domestic engine programs were lagging behind the airframe's development.
Around 2019–2020, Chengdu completely shifted production away from the AL-31. Here is how the engine timeline breaks down for the rest of the fleet: Shenyang WS-10C: After the initial ~50 AL-31 airframes, production switched entirely to the domestically produced WS-10C (and variants). This engine powered the vast majority of the early J-20 fleet, offering slight improvements in reliability and allowing limited supercruise capabilities, and then from 2024/25 to WS-15 which is a game changer in many ways
antiterror13
Brigadier
I think WS-10 engines on J-20 won't get replaced until need replacing, not sure WS-15 can be fitted on J-20s easily
Remember that J-20 with WS-10C is already very deadly and better than most fighters (relatively on par with F-20 and arguably better than F-35) and far better than the rest of fighters in the world.
What China would do (I think), to keep improving avionics (and radar) and software with current power envelope. When they need engine replacement (~10-15 years away) likely new variants of WS-10C available, perhaps WS-10D/E with improve power and better in everything ...
The bigger question is, what China would do to ~50 J-20 with AL-31F engines? Given that retrofitting the original ~50 AL-31 Russian-powered J-20s with WS-15 engines is structurally difficult and cost-prohibitive, the PLAAF is likely to manage this early batch through specialized roles until they age out of service. likely for Advanced Training and Conversion, Aggressor Squadrons (Red Team) and Software and Tactics Testbeds. When the AL-31F need replacing, I think China would keep those and put WS-10C/D varaiant
Last edited:
The J-20s will be performing distant offensive counter-air missions, so they can benefit from the additional range/performance of the WS-15 (27%? additional thrust). With that sort of difference, they should have designed the earlier J-20s to accommodate the WS-15.
And it just makes sense to replace the WS-10s early, so they still have enough service life to be used on a CCA which doesn't need to fly very often. Using a brand-new engine on a CCA is inefficient, as the engine will have a way longer lifespan than the CCA.
antiterror13
Brigadier
Interesting thought, but I think it's unlikely as China already have so many J-20 to do everything you said, and J-20A (with WS-15) is growing too >100 per year