I don't think we can see them as a 095 or 093 variant or such because dimension is quite different. Also, it's not really in PLAN's way of doing things to have special variant before the original version even started sea trials.
I think we should just see them as separate sub class. This one may well be a SSGN or something else. That's TBD. I think special mission variant is quite unlikely.
Sorry I hadn’t been keeping track with the detachable sail thing, but I have to ask: what does “detach” even mean in this context? It’s not like the sail has anywhere to go once it’s taken off, would it be carried by a tugboat (or something similar) that guides it into/out of port and then takes the sail and brings it back?The one thing that nags at me was the amount of smoke around the notion of a mini-sail SSN. Too many big shrimps weighed in with too much detail for the sail to be this big, and it’s hard to credibly argue that even the PLA would be able to have yet another full sized SSN design up its sleeve that we have not seen yet.
One possibility that keeps coming back to me was an almost joking/throw-away comment the CHH trio made about a detachable navigation sail to be added for final manoeuvres into and out of ports. It is theoretically possible that such a detachable sail was added as part of the initial build in the halls to save the trouble of adding it later once the sub was peer-side, and also as camouflage to hide the true nature of the sub, especially one being built at JN, where it was inevitable that pictures would emerge during fit out.
The idea of there being two subs classes in direct competition just doesn’t make sense at this stage given the vast costs of getting both programmes to this stage of development, and also the fact this new 09X is being built at both yards at the same time.
Sorry I hadn’t been keeping track with the detachable sail thing, but I have to ask: what does “detach” even mean in this context? It’s not like the sail has anywhere to go once it’s taken off, would it be carried by a tugboat (or something similar) that guides it into/out of port and then takes the sail and brings it back?
Sorry I hadn’t been keeping track with the detachable sail thing, but I have to ask: what does “detach” even mean in this context? It’s not like the sail has anywhere to go once it’s taken off, would it be carried by a tugboat (or something similar) that guides it into/out of port and then takes the sail and brings it back?
If this detachable sail>>>>>>> when discuss with my friend about this, he suggested that such a small sail may be retractable!!!!I forget which episode it was covered in, so this is going off memory. But as I recall, it was mentioned ostensively as a possible future upgrade/modification to add an automated navigation sail UUV that can dock autonomously and return to port under its own power, and was basically just covered in a few words.
The host hurriedly moved the discussion on, and at the time I just chalked that down as one of them riffing a random idea that the host thought was going too far off topic. But it could also be interpreted as one of them dropping an Easter egg that was maybe cutting a bit too close to revealing actually confidential material for the host’s liking if it’s the UUV automation part that’s the future development idea rather than the navigation sail itself.
The navigation sail was raised as a possible way to mitigate some of the challenges of going to a mini-sail/sailless design, which if you think about it, doesn’t make a whole lot of logical sense. Because if you can make the first pioneering examples work without it, why would subsequent, more refined versions need this crutch later on? It would be akin to suggesting a retractable tail as a future upgrade option for tailless 6th gen fighters, it just wouldn’t make sense as its a big backwards step.
If this detachable sail is just for navigation purposes in and out of ports, it’s design can be incredibly sample as just a bare shell with some fixed buoyancy tanks and a simple clamp mechanism (ideally one where the front end of the whole sail hinges open as well), easiest to clamp to attachment points on the periscope mast to avoid leaving protrusions on the outer hull itself.
When departing, the sub just unlocks the clamps, retract periscope and gently dive and the sail just floats away for a tug or sub tender to pick up and take home. On attachment, the sub surfaces and a sub tender gently position the sail in place and engage the clamp and close the outer shell once locked. That’s if they want the navigation sail as a feature. If it’s just a decoy, it can be made even simpler and cheaper as you can just design it to break away cleanly to be discarded once the boat is out of the yard and out in open water without prying eyes.
The issue with #1 and #2 is that while they make a lot of sense from an operational perspective and will likely exist at some point, the timeline feels off. Are they really such high priorities that PLAN is building them right alongside the first 095 before working out the inevitable issues a brand new clean sheet design would have? This would be a significant departure from PLAN's usual iterative and steady progress approach and even if you assume that PLAN was trying to move faster in subs to catch up, you would expect them to pump out baseline 095 in large numbers first as those would probably be more useful in the short run than SSGN or special mission sub.#1 - This boat is an SSGN variant of the 095 SSN.
This is the most straight-forward deduction, given the estimated hull diameter of this SSN. The position and size of the sail on this SSN is both smaller and more fore to the bow compared to the sail on the 095. Alongside the increased length of this SSN over the 095, these two would/should point towards a larger midsection to house more VLS cells or more multipack VLS tubes.
#2 - This boat is a special-mission variant of the 095 SSN.
Generally with the same reasoning as #1. Though, given the rapid succession of construction of two units of this boat is built simultaneously (alongside the relative number of special mission variants of SSNs relative to the overall size of the SSNs we see with the US and Russian navies), I'd rate this to be slightly less probable than #1 - That is, unless the PLAN is putting significantly larger focus into special mission aspects (undersea warfare in particular) on their future subsurface fleet than what we have anticipated/expected thus far.
#3 - This boat is simply an upgraded variant of the (base) 095 SSN.
Plausible, but it does sound kinda (too?) quick to build a noticeably upgraded variant of the 095 SSN, considering the first boat of the class had only hit the water less than 4 months ago. However, I wouldn't exclude the probability of some kind of combination of features from both #1 and #2 on this variant in order to become the new "base" variant of the 095 class.
#4 - This boat is a hunter-killer variant of the 095 SSN.
Doesn't seem that likely (to me), given how the general consensus being that hunter-killer SSNs like the Seawolfs would be having a rather "fixed" hull length-to-beam ratio that is generally "short-but-thick" in order to achieve enhanced maneuverability in subsurface combat against enemy underwater assets in the deep ocean.
#5 - This boat is a 093C SSN (i.e., further development of thr 093B SSN).
Like, why even bother? Even the 093B SSN, with their much more advanced, across-the-board upgrades compared to their predecessors (093/A), still retains the ~9 meter diameter hull. Suddenly expanding the hull to ~12 meters while retaining the core hull design just doesn't pass the smell test - Might as well just build the 095 SSN that is superior to the 093B SSN in pretty much every way.
In that case then the doubts about #1 and #2 are even stronger because is it really such a high priority to get 2 SSGN or special mission ships available asap rather than in a few years after the baseline 095 is debugged and ready? Sure PLAN is going to get these subs at some point probably but it feels very weird that they'd have the first 3 subs be built effectively in parallel and 2 of them are SSGN or special mission subs. Think about what your reaction would be 6 months ago if somebody suggested that. Honestly I'm still just really confused about this development.My understanding is that there are 2 x 09x 1 each JN and BH. Another launch from BH turned out to be a civilian ship. Also 1 x 095 from BH.