New sailless SSN (09X?) thread

ChineseToTheBone

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- As a dedicated hunter killer, this submarine likely does not have any VLS cells (Though, we know now that this is likely incorrect as there were some VLS multipack tubes spotted, but given the minimal amount of only ~12 cells, I don't think this changes the conclusion much) and instead rely purely on a large amount of torpedo tubes like the Seawolf.
Honest question but does it even matter for Chinese nuclear attack submarines to have more vertical launch system cells when the YJ-19 hypersonic missile can be fired from torpedo tubes?
 

Tomboy

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Honest question but does it even matter for Chinese nuclear attack submarines to have more vertical launch system cells when the YJ-19 hypersonic missile can be fired from torpedo tubes?
AFAIK, YJ-19 made quite a bit of sacrifice in range and warhead size to fit into a torpedo tube. For more credible attacks against large surface combatants (Carriers or LHDs etc) or land based targets VLS cells are still IMO necessary.
 

bsdnf

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Honest question but does it even matter for Chinese nuclear attack submarines to have more vertical launch system cells when the YJ-19 hypersonic missile can be fired from torpedo tubes?
The YJ-19's range is generally estimated to be no more than 1,000 kilometers, and because it uses a scramjet engine, its warhead is likely even smaller than that of a similarly sized HGV.

Furthermore, the maximum number of missiles that can be fired simultaneously from torpedo tubes is significantly lower than that of a VLS.
 

Blitzo

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- 09V has gone through atleast one major design revision as the original design was considered too conservative

Thanks for the effort for the translation.

Regarding the above part quoted, that is something I recall back in the 2010s that 09V would be pushed back to pursue a more capable redesign.

At the time a lot of us expected a 10m diameter single hull SSN of some sort ala Virginia, and it was only after that rumour of a delay came in, that the idea of a Seawolf esque diameter started to gain some traction

I'm gonna pour some cold water here. What we're seeing is of course significant in many ways, the lack of a sail is not the only factor. There are still many areas of submarine tech where the PLA has not caught up to the latest US tech. I really do think the J-36 comparison (lack of a sail to lack of vertical stabilizers) creates blind spots in how China's submarine progress should be perceived.

And there is also the issue of underwater mapping. China has certainly been working on it, but it is still something that will take much more time.

Per Ayi: The PLA is still not in a position to scoff at the 885M.

To be fair, 885M is still a rather capable submarine in absolute terms with 32 VLS and a whopping 10 torpedo tubes with full countermeasures suite and so forth. As well as quite capable automation and a modern sonar setup. All of that in one package would be impressive by any measure.

But it's also a fair bit larger and heavier than 09V, and is in many ways a continuation of Soviet style gigantism.
 

Wrought

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In the meantime, if there is no general-purpose variant (for land-attack and anti-ship missions, serving as proper successors to the 095 family) being considered by the designers and engineers of the 09X and the PLAN for the foreseeable future, then I believe that we could very well see the 095 family having a substantial production run for many years to come (i.e. parallel production runs with the 09X). At this stage, I don't quite see how the PLAN would just gladly give up the capability of conducting anti-ship and land-attack missions far beyond the 2IC in favor of an all-sub-hunter fleet. This is apart from the time required for all the advanced/next-gen technologies onboard this prototype SSN to be tested, verified and accepted by the operators before proceeding with serial production, which would necessitate using the 095 family as a stopgap.

I will venture to disagree on this point. While the aircraft analogy is necessarily imperfect, a similar design philosophy can be observed in how both 6th-gens are explicitly oriented towards air superiority missions—not strike ones. That is to say, aircraft optimized for A2A combat, to destroy enemy aircraft, and ultimately to win control of the air. Strike missions and platforms are clearly a secondary priority at this stage.

It seems quite plausible, poetic even, than PLAN is likewise laser-focused on using its own next-gen platforms to win control of the (under)sea. Presumably the logic is that, given the disproportionate degree to which US and co. are dependent on air/sea control to conduct and coordinate distant operations along exterior lines from otherwise isolated island bases, contesting and disrupting said control yields disproportionate benefits to the country with interior lines along a giant continental landmass and associated benefits w.r.t. force (re)generation, (re)supply, logistics, etc, in-theatre by default.
 
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Blitzo

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Assuming Xi Yazhou's claim to be accurate/true, then I believe we could deduce/infer that China's future SSN fleet would be developed as follows:

- The 095 SSN (which is considered "older/less-advanced" than the 09X SSN) would become the PLAN's Virginias (despite many of us in the OSINT circles equating it to the Seawolf) - Namely, general-purpose SSNs (and hopefully SSGNs in future variants with more than 24x VLS cells per boat) for anti-ship and land attack missions, which would be relatively cheaper to procure and operate.
- The 09X SSN, on the other hand, would become the PLAN's Seawolfs instead - Namely, dedicated hunter-killer SSNs for anti-sub (and potentially even special) missions, which would be relatively more expensive to procure and operate.

In the meantime, if there is no general-purpose variant (for land-attack and anti-ship missions, serving as proper successors to the 095 family) being considered by the designers and engineers of the 09X and the PLAN for the foreseeable future, then I believe that we could very well see the 095 family having a substantial production run for many years to come (i.e. parallel production runs with the 09X). At this stage, I don't quite see how the PLAN would just gladly give up the capability of conducting anti-ship and land-attack missions far beyond the 2IC in favor of an all-sub-hunter fleet. This is apart from the time required for all the advanced/next-gen technologies onboard this prototype SSN to be tested, verified and accepted by the operators before proceeding with serial production, which would necessitate using the 095 family as a stopgap.

On the other hand, once the 095 family's production run kicks into high gear, then I think it's a rational expectation for the 093B's production run to be massively scaled back and terminated.

We do know that a "09VA" is in the works, and depending on its configuration it might emphasize a greater SSGN role (as you've suggested as a variant).

If the 09X is an even more "undersea superiority" platform than baseline 09V already is, I could see them going for a dual fleet of 09X and a heavier VLS load "09VA" variant in the future (and even 09X likely would still have some VLS albeit a bit lower than 09V at baseline possibly).
Such a fleet would be a balanced mix of "undersea superiority" and "undersea superiority+land attack" in role.


What is the actual, more ridiculous notion though, is the idea that the PLAN would really be willing to commit to an active SSN production line characterized by "all ~12m pressure hull" (for 09V/"VA" and 09X, assuming 09IIIB production sunsets in near future).

That would be immensely ambitious.
 
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