New sailless SSN (09X?) thread

[00CuriousObserver]

I'm gonna pour some cold water here. What we're seeing is of course significant in many ways, the lack of a sail is not the only factor. There are still many areas of submarine tech where the PLA has not caught up to the latest US tech. I really do think the J-36 comparison (lack of a sail to lack of vertical stabilizers) creates blind spots in how China's submarine progress should be perceived.

And there is also the issue of underwater mapping. China has certainly been working on it, but it is still something that will take much more time.

Per Ayi: The PLA is still not in a position to scoff at the 885M.

 

[latenlazy]

I'm gonna pour some cold water here. What we're seeing is of course significant in many ways, the lack of a sail is not the only factor. There are still many areas of submarine tech where the PLA has not caught up to the latest US tech. I really do think the J-36 comparison (lack of a sail to lack of vertical stabilizers) creates blind spots in how China's submarine progress should be perceived.

Should specify exactly which aspects of tech are still behind here.

 

[Tomboy]

Xiyazhou did elaborated more on his initial post, here are the summary of the relevant part:

- 09IIIB was only built en masse due to 09V being delayed

- 09V has gone through atleast one major design revision as the original design was considered too conservative

- Both factors mentioned above caused 09V to become almost like a "parallel project" to the new SSN in timeline

- The overall design of the new SSN is a massive improvement over traditional design; despite using the same (or similar) set of propulsion arrangement, the lack of a sail would mean the new SSN will have up to 15 percent drag reduction at high speeds which means significantly improved top speed.

- The sail is also the second largest cause of noise at high speed after propulsion, removing the sail would effectively remove a major cause of noise at high speeds. If your propulsion arrangement is silent enough (09V's nuclear IEP is mentioned to be SOTA globally), removing the sail would result in an extremely quiet submarine even at high cruise speeds.

- TWZ's statement on this new SSN being sort of like an underwater interceptor is partially correct, this SSN is designed to track and destroy American underwater assets efficiently between the first and second island chain.

- As a dedicated hunter killer, this submarine likely does not have any VLS cells (Though, we know now that this is likely incorrect as there were some VLS multipack tubes spotted, but given the minimal amount of only ~12 cells, I don't think this changes the conclusion much) and instead rely purely on a large amount of torpedo tubes like the Seawolf.

- This submarine may also be equipped with larger than 533mm tubes to launch UUVs, Xiyazhou expects all future designs to include provisions for these "underwater loyal wingmans".

- It is also possible that this submarine will include smaller 380mm torpedo tubes to launch dedicated anti-torpedo torpedos for active defense, as with how fast sensor technology is improving, current countermeasures like bubble decoys or jammers may become insufficient in the near future.

- There were already some rumors about this in the past, but he did not expect it to come so fast. It is now possible that the Type 09V will not see mass production.


I also attached his full post for anyone who wants to read it in depth

 

[Neurosmith]

It is now possible that the Type 09V will not see mass production.

Wait, so this SSN is a competitor to rather than complement of the 09V?

The PLAN no longer views having a SSGN - or at least a sub capable of significant land-attack or anti-ship firepower - as an important part of their doctrine?

 

[Tomboy]

Wait, so this SSN is a competitor to rather than complement of the 09V?

My takeaway from his previous posts is that 09V was delayed so much that the next generation caught up to it in timeline

 

[Neurosmith]

My takeaway from his previous posts is that 09V was delayed so much that the next generation caught up to it in timeline

Are there any previous rumors about the 09V that match with what's being predicted here? I find it hard to believe that the 09V might not enter mass production given how different the boat is compared to the new SSN in terms of armaments and whatnot. A more believable situation would be that the 09V enters production while the PLAN awaits the 09X to be fully developed and finalized - a process that could take years and years.

 

[gk1713]

By analogy with how surface combatants evolved, are we now in a ‘small‑batch, fast‑iteration’ phase for submarines — building multiple divergent designs until the nuclear‑sub fleet eventually identifies its own equivalent of a ‘Type 052D’?

 

[sunnymaxi]

My takeaway from his previous posts is that 09V was delayed so much that the next generation caught up to it in timeline

technically this doesn't make sense.

R&D has wrapped up on schedule this is why we have seen 093B mass production and 095 being launched. so how can JN leapfrog in R&D and jumped strait on next gen SSN. like precision engineering and material science standard should be the same.

i think there is still uncertainty regarding this new submarine. better we should wait and see.

 

[sunnymaxi]

Are there any previous rumors about the 09V that match with what's being predicted here? I find it hard to believe that the 09V might not enter mass production given how different the boat is compared to the new SSN in terms of armaments and whatnot. A more believable situation would be that the 09V enters production while the PLAN awaits the 09X to be fully developed and finalized - a process that could take years and years.

all are speculations and nothing is official.

as per the Guancha Trios.

two units of 095 currently assembling and 095A is too under development. they are spending huge resource on this project and imagine they don't produce in reasonable numbers. even in worst case 095 will likely produce in decent numbers before jump onto next gen SSN.

 

[Aspide]

"Small sail" sub obviously has been in the works for quite some time and considered significant enough to justify building one third or half size "technology demonstrator" before building a full-size sub. Still, I fail to see why this sub should be considered next generation to 095.