New sailless SSN (provisional)

[Maikeru]

Apple maps has the most recent imagery of JN. In addition to finding what appear to be ~10m pressure hull sections around the largest, northernmost hall of the new sub factory (also visible in much earlier Google imagery), I also found this:


Can't measure distance on Apple and I'm not sure if it's even a submarine. But it kinda looks like one. In the basin with 2 x DDG and a Yang Wang.

Any ideas?

 

[Blitzo]

Apple maps has the most recent imagery of JN. In addition to finding what appear to be ~10m pressure hull sections around the largest, northernmost hall of the new sub factory (also visible in much earlier Google imagery), I also found this:

View attachment 176080
Can't measure distance on Apple and I'm not sure if it's even a submarine. But it kinda looks like one. In the basin with 2 x DDG and a Yang Wang.

Any ideas?

I think it's a bit smaller than the JN submarine in the last few pictures if we base it off the size of the adjacent platform as the constant.

The submarine in that picture is only like 30% longer than the platform, while the JN submarine in the last few pictures is nearly twice the length of the platform.

Probably unrelated imo, if the platform barges are used as common measures.

 

[Neurosmith]

They aren't necessarily "simultaneously" launched; chances are they could be offset by a few months (we don't know when the JN hull was specifically launched afaik).

Launching two boats of a new class in close interval from two different shipyards also isn't wholly unprecedented for the PLAN, because the matter with that is "building a new class in two different shipyards immediately without prior verification of a new hull class"... and technically when 055 started construction between JN and DL back in the day it was also basically near simultaneous (with offset between JN and DL's first hulls partly because DL's first two 055s were built alongside each other in the same drydock and simultaneously launched).

That's actually a fair point with the 055 simultaneous launches. Nevertheless, submarines and nuclear reactors aren't exactly the forte of China's military shipbuilding industry, so this practice would be eye-opening for certain.

My guess is that the Bohai boat is a 09V (TWZ believes this too) and the JN sub is a new class. Perhaps the 041 was merely a testbed since it never seemed to have progressed beyond the prototype stage.

Or just wait for clearer imagery, lol.

 

[Blitzo]

That's actually a fair point with the 055 simultaneous launches. Nevertheless, submarines and nuclear reactors aren't exactly the forte of China's military shipbuilding industry, so this practice would be eye-opening for certain.

The bolded word is present tense -- perhaps we may find ourselves in a situation where it should apply in past tense (by submarines I assume you mean nuclear submarines, given the PRC has been generally up to date with conventional)

E.g. use "weren't" instead of "aren't"

 

[TK3600]

Do we know this is not a UUV? We know there was a lot of UUV also being developed.

 

[Blitzo]

Do we know this is not a UUV?

As written earlier in this thread, in theory it "could" be a UUV, but given how big it is, the idea of it being a UUV would make it the largest UUV in the world by such a massive extent, that the more likely prospect at this stage is it is just a regular manned submarine but with a very small sail.


At this stage no possibility is technically ruled out yet, but there are some options that are on the less likely end (e.g. being a UUV, being conventionally powered, etc)

 

[Neurosmith]

The bolded word is present tense -- perhaps we may find ourselves in a situation where it should apply in past tense (by submarines I assume you mean nuclear submarines, given the PRC has been generally up to date with conventional)

E.g. use "weren't" instead of "aren't"

The 09IIIB boats, first launched in 2022, are arguably the first PLAN submarines that could be considered as more or less "in the same league" as their counterparts around the world. The preceding submarines, even the 09IIIA, were launched like 10 years before that and are of...questionable capability.

So it is fair to say that constructing high-performance modern SSNs is still a relatively new sport for JNCX/Bohai. Which is why I am skeptical that the Chinese would be so bold as to launch two brand-new SSN classes - of a relatively new type of submarine (sailless boats) - involving a shipyard that has just recently acquired nuke-building capability.

 

[Blitzo]

The 09IIIB boats, first launched in 2022, are arguably the first PLAN submarines that could be considered as more or less "in the same league" as their counterparts around the world. The preceding submarines, even the 09IIIA, were launched like 10 years before that and are of...questionable capability.

So it is fair to say that constructing high-performance modern SSNs is still a relatively new sport for JNCX/Bohai. Which is why I am skeptical that the Chinese would be so bold as to launch two brand-new SSN classes - of a relatively new type of submarine (sailless boats) - involving a shipyard that has just recently acquired nuke-building capability.

2022 was four years ago.

The first 055 was launched in 2017 (with simultaneous dual yard construction already confirmed prior to that), and the first 052D (arguably their first roundly competitive/same league, as other global DDGa of their era and size) was launched in 2012.

I would say the time elapsed, means in terms of what is now mature/considered a "forte" for PRC nuclear submarine building, probably should have undergone a revision at some point in the recent past, and what we are seeing now is just the proof in the pudding.


I wouldn't go so far as to say that this is "decisively expected" but I would say that what we are seeing is well within the reasonable bounds of prediction based on what we knew of PRC nuclear submarine trajectory even from the late 2010s.

 

[Hub]

That's actually a fair point with the 055 simultaneous launches. Nevertheless, submarines and nuclear reactors aren't exactly the forte of China's military shipbuilding industry, so this practice would be eye-opening for certain.

My guess is that the Bohai boat is a 09V (TWZ believes this too) and the JN sub is a new class. Perhaps the 041 was merely a testbed since it never seemed to have progressed beyond the prototype stage.

Or just wait for clearer imagery, lol.

During Tuesday's Yankee talk show, he revealed that the Type 041 may not be mass-produced. Combined with new satellite imagery, it now appears the PLAN has decided to continue building its fleet around large, more conventional SSNs. So, you might be right; based on previous development experience, JN has unveiled another large SSN…

My personal guess is that JN’s design is closer to the Virginia-class blk4/5, using a similar hull size but with a modified small sail and X-rudder. Huludao's design is more like the Seawolf Plus, focusing on the pursuit and hunting of underwater targets…

 

[Squadson]

I'm just wondering why this submarine looks like just an experimental vessel. Also, is there any possibility of this submarine having VLS?